Fact or Fiction: Fantasy Football Outlooks for Kirk Cousins, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Jalen Nailor, Troy Franklin, Gunnar Helm

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Justin's fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 16 of 2025. He looks at surprising performances from Kirk Cousins, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Jalen Nailor, Troy Franklin, Gunnar Helm.

Welcome back to Fact or Fiction, RotoBaller's weekly look at some of the NFL's most shocking performances. This week's a fun one, because we had two wide receivers who've already appeared here earlier in the season, but whose production since then has fallen off so much that another big game felt like a shock.

It's a sign of just how long an NFL season really is. We have ebbs and flows. Entire career trajectories can change multiple times. Players who were left for dead by fantasy managers can suddenly reappear on the fantasy leaderboard. Veteran quarterbacks who looked like they wouldn't start a game can be delivering top-five performances by the end of the season.

Let's talk about the Week 15 performances from Kirk Cousins, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Jalen Nailor, Troy Franklin, and Gunnar Helm. What do they mean? Can you trust these players in the fantasy football playoffs?

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Kirk Cousins, QB, Kirk Cousins

Week 15 stats: 30-for-44 for 373 yards and three touchdowns -- overall QB3

For the first time since taking over as the Falcons quarterback last month, Kirk Cousins looked like...well, like Cousins. The veteran quarterback threw for a season-high 373 yards and three touchdowns. It was his most yards since Week 5 of the 2024 season, when he threw for 509 yards and four touchdowns in a win over Tampa Bay.

KIRKO. FALCONS. WHAT A NIGHT pic.twitter.com/NHNfy0yxYT

— NFL (@NFL) October 4, 2024

Wait, Tampa Bay? Yeah, so here's the thing: Cousins seems to step up big when he faces the Buccaneers. Since moving to Atlanta, Cousins has started 19 games. He's thrown three or more touchdowns four times in that span, with three of those games coming against the Buccaneers.

Of his four games with 300-plus passing yards, two have been against the Bucs, and those two games happen to represent his two highest yardage totals as a Falcon.

Something about those matchups seems to enable Cousins to look much more like the Vikings version of himself than the Falcons version.

Some of that is probably a coincidence, but it's fair to have at least some concern here that Cousins won't be able to come close to replicating this against the Cardinals this weekend. Luckily for fantasy managers who are desperate for help at quarterback, Arizona ranks 21st in passing yards allowed per game, so this is a good matchup for Cousins. Don't go in expecting a big game, but you might be able to survive using him as a streamer.

Just, you know, don't expect Cousins to post the kind of explosive numbers he did against Tampa. For whatever reason, he only seems capable of conjuring that level of play against one specific team.

Verdict: Fiction, but you can do worse if you need a streamer this week

Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB, New York Giants

Week 15 stats: 15 carries for 70 yards and one touchdown, three receptions for 27 yards and a touchdown -- overall RB5

As a rookie, Tyrone Tracy Jr. finished as a fantasy RB1 in half-PPR leagues four times. In his second NFL season, he's only done it twice. Missing a couple of games early in the year contributed to that, as did the emergence of Cam Skattebo.

But with Skattebo sidelined, Tracy has seen his role grow in New York, with double-digit carries in five consecutive games. In that span, Tracy has finishes of RB5, RB12, and RB14, and twice has gone over 50 yards as a receiver.

Tracy's not an elite running back, but the Giants don't really have a ton of other options here. Devin Singletary has shown flashes, but Tracy's been just as good, if not better, on the ground while adding way more as a receiver. New York also lacks receiving weapons, leading Jaxson Dart to look his way more in the passing game.

I'm not saying fantasy managers can expect top-5 production from Tracy over these next two games, but he has a fairly neutral matchup this weekend with the Vikings, so you should absolutely have him in your lineup as an RB2. He has a high ceiling and a relatively high floor.

Verdict: Fact

Jalen Nailor, WR, Minnesota Vikings

Week 15 stats: three catches for 47 yards and two touchdowns -- overall WR8

This is not the first time this season that I've written about Jalen Nailor. Back in Week 10, Nailor had five catches for 124 yards and a touchdown. My conclusion essentially boiled down to this: "Don't expect a repeat performance of that, but Nailor might be intriguing in dynasty, assuming he signs elsewhere this offseason."

JJ McCarthy delivers a TD strike rolling to his left!

MINvsDAL on NBC
Stream on @NFLPlus + Peacock pic.twitter.com/1oLnZ2MYfQ

— NFL (@NFL) December 15, 2025

So, we did get a repeat performance, but I still stand by that statement. Nailor was WR2 that week and WR8 this week, but here are his rankings in between: WR78, WR139, WR150, WR51.

Overall, Nailor has three finishes all season as a top-50 fantasy receiver, which is as many times as he's finished a game with zero receptions. The fact that two of those no-catch games have come over the past four games is another sign to disregard this showing.

I stand by the fact that Nailor is an intriguing player long term, but there's simply no way a fantasy manager can trust him in the fantasy playoffs.

Verdict: Fiction

Troy Franklin, WR, Denver Broncos

Week 15 stats: six catches for 85 yards and a touchdown -- overall WR9

There was a time this season when Troy Franklin finishing as the WR9 wouldn't have been a huge surprise. He was the overall WR1 back in Week 8 and had two top 25 finishes in the three games after that.

But then came Denver's bye week. After the bye, Franklin had two stinkers in a row, finishing as WR75 against the Commanders and WR73 against the Raiders. Concerningly, Franklin's snap rate took a nosedive. Week 13 was a then-season-low 52.9 percent, while Week 14 plummeted to 25.7 percent. It was clear from those two games that Pat Bryant was now the No. 2 receiver in Denver, and Franklin played fewer snaps against the Raiders than Lil'Jordan Humphrey or Marvin Mims Jr.

It's true that Franklin did more in Week 14 than in those two games, catching six passes for 85 yards and a score, but he still played just 50 percent of Denver's snaps, his second-lowest snap rate of 2025. Notably, Bryant was out with a hamstring injury, and Franklin still played fewer snaps than Humphrey.

If Bryant is back for the Week 16 game against the Jaguars, then Franklin should be off the fantasy radar. If Bryant is sidelined again, fantasy managers in deeper leagues might be able to use Franklin as a flex option, but it's risky considering the recent decrease in snap count.

Verdict: Fiction, but he could be streamed if Bryant misses another game

Gunnar Helm, TE, Tennessee Titans

Week 15 stats: four catches for 49 yards and one touchdown -- overall TE9

It's been a long season in Tennessee. No. 1 overall pick Cameron Ward has shown flashes of brilliance, but also has struggled at times because he doesn't really have anyone to throw the football to.

Maybe, though, he's found someone? Tennessee scored 24 points on Sunday against the 49ers, the fourth game in a row that the team hit that mark. The team achieved that total just four times in its first 10 games. As the offense has improved, rookie tight end Gunnar Helm has benefited from that improvement.

Gunnar Helm in the Titans record books ✅ @gunnar_helm pic.twitter.com/PppXhvdSPC

— Tennessee Titans (@Titans) December 16, 2025

Helm, who caught his second NFL touchdown on Sunday, has now caught four or more passes in four of the five games since Tennessee's bye after doing so just twice before the bye. The team is working hard to get an exciting young player involved.

Long-term, this is great news for fantasy managers. The Titans have a lot of holes to fix this offseason, so if they become convinced that Helm is the answer at tight end, that's one less issue that Tennessee will need to fix.

In the short term, though, there's too much risk involved with playing Helm when you have a fantasy championship on the line. His next two games are against the Chiefs and Saints. Kansas City allows the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, while New Orleans allows the 10th-fewest to the position. Bad matchups plus the general inconsistency of this offense make for too much risk.

Verdict: Fiction as far as 2025 goes, but Helm is an intriguing sleeper for 2026

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