Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Crystal Ball - Projecting The Top 10 First Basemen for 2029

November 20, 2025

Kevin projects the top 10 fantasy baseball dynasty first basemen going into the 2029 MLB season. His top MLB first basemen prospects to increase their fantasy values for dynasty leagues include Ben Rice, Nick Kurtz, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and more.

This is the second article of my offseason Dynasty Crystal Ball Series, where I project the top 10 players at each position for the 2029 season. In dynasty, it's important to understand the current value of players, but being able to project their value going forward is a way you can get ahead of the rest of your league mates.

We're looking at the first base position, which is currently experiencing a changing of the guard at the top of the rankings. Fantasy staples like Freddie Freeman, Bryce Harper, and Paul Goldschmidt are getting up there in age, and there is a wave of younger guys looking to take their place on your fantasy teams.

Let's take a look at how the first base position will look for dynasty in three years. A note about how I'm looking at positions for these rankings is that I'm giving my best assumption on what each player's primary position will be going into 2029, and only ranking them in one position. Check here if you missed the catcher rankings.

No. 10: Pete Alonso, New York Mets

Age in 2029 (Around Opening Day): 34.30

I think one of the star basemen who will be in their mid-30s at this point will be here in the rankings. I gave the edge to Pete Alonso over Matt Olson and Harper. Alonso just feels like the best bet to maintain his plus power profile into the latter part of his career.

Alonso has hit at least 34 HRs in every full season of his career, but I think an underrated part of his profile has been his ability to reduce his K-rate from early in his career. He's struck out under 25 percent of the time in each of his last five seasons, which you don't always see from big sluggers.

We've seen first basemen like Freeman still have strong fantasy seasons into their mid-30s, but most teams aren't clamoring to acquire him in dynasty unless they're in full win-now mode, and I think that'll be the case for Alonso (as well as Olson and Harper) in a few years.

No. 9: Josue Briceno, Detroit Tigers

Age in 2029: 24.51

Josue Briceño has been one of the biggest rising prospects over the last year. Around this time last year, Briceño was winning the Arizona Fall League MVP and, more impressively, the Triple Crown.

You never want to get too excited over AFL offensive production, but Briceño really opened up a lot of eyes, not just due to his dominance, but the fact that he was doing it, having just turned 20 years old and having not played above Low-A in a crop of prospects that were mostly in the high minors.

Briceño followed up his monster AFL campaign by dominating High-A this season. He had a 187 WRC+ with 15 HRs while walking more than he struck out. He struggled a bit when he got the bump to Double-A, but he's still very young, as he was only 20 for most of this season and was still above league average at the level.

Coming into the season, the Tigers had an elite offensive duo that was excelling at the same level in Max Clark and Kevin McGonigle. Briceño has done enough to make that an elite trio, and he should find himself in the heart of the Tigers' lineup by this point in the future.

Josue Briceño is going to be just as good as Samuel Basallo long-term IMO.

Call it a hot take. I believe it.

And that's not a slight to Basallo at all. It's praise for Briceño.pic.twitter.com/3PbbLmV2bQ

— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) September 16, 2025

No. 8: Jonathan Aranda, Tampa Bay Rays

Age in 2029: 30.84

While not spoiling too much, Aranda had a season similar to the numbers four and three on this list: they were all older breakouts with exciting underlying metrics.

Jonathan Aranda had a 146 WRC+ this season with a .316 BA and 14 HRs in only 106 games. One of the things I really liked about Aranda's season was that he earned his right to face lefties. Everyone knows that the Rays love platooning, especially with their young left-handed bats. Aranda made the most of his limited opportunities against left-handed pitching with a 111 WRC+.

I expect him to mostly be a full-time player in the future. Aranda also had great underlying metrics, as he hit the ball extremely hard, and his expected stats were all towards the top of the league.

All this being said about Aranda, there is a reason I have him at eight and two guys with similar profiles at four and three. The game power left a little bit to be desired as he was only on a full-season pace of about 20 HRs.

That was while playing half of his games at George M. Steinbrenner Field, which should've been a home-run-hitting haven for lefties. It will not be easier to hit HRs when the Rays return to Tropicana Field. Also, although Aranda had great expected stats, he had a .409 BABIP, so I'd expect a bit of regression with his average.

No. 7: Agustin Ramirez, Miami Marlins

Age in 2029: 27.54

I got a bunch of questions about Agustin Ramirez on my catcher article when I didn't include him in my rankings for the top 10 Catchers going into 2029, and that's because I just don't think he'll be playing there for much longer.

Ramirez was one of the worst defensive catchers in baseball last year. He was in the first percentile for fielding run value, blocks above average, and CS above average. One of the Marlins' top prospects is Joe Mack, who is a strong defensive catcher, and the Marlins don't have an obvious first baseman of the future on the roster.

The stars seem to align on Ramirez making the transition to first base sometime in the near future- maybe even this upcoming season. If Ramirez does make his way out from behind the plate, it would likely be a nice boost to him for fantasy (excluding losing catcher eligibility).

Most catchers are not as good defensively on days they have to catch, but Ramirez may have been a pretty extreme case in 2025. As a DH, he had a .251 BA with a 112 WRC+ and 14 of his 21 HRs. As a catcher, he only had a .213 BA and a 73 WRC+.

Along with some improved stats if he were no longer a catcher, Ramirez is also due for a bit of positive regression, as he was pretty unlucky last season. His BA was 32 points lower than his xBA, which was the eighth-worst in the majors amongst qualified hitters, and his wOBA was 30 points lower than his xwOBA, which was 17th worst.

The final aspect of Ramirez's game that is so exciting is his willingness and ability to steal bases. He stole 16 as a rookie, and you'd imagine that number will go up if he isn't catching in the future. He has a power-speed blend that is a rare bonus for either catchers or first basemen.

Agustin Ramirez is the first rookie catcher in MLB history to have 30+2B/20+HR/15+SB pic.twitter.com/yDdIjpoTiN

— Fuzzy (@fuzzyfromyt) September 27, 2025

No. 6: Bryce Eldridge, San Francisco Giants

Age in 2029: 24.43

Bryce Eldridge feels like a bit of a buy-low this offseason. His surface stats were not overly impressive, as he had a 120 WRC+ in the minors between Double-A and Triple-A before getting called up, and he had a 54 WRC+ in his short stint in the majors.

Many fantasy managers will also look at his strikeout rate and worry about his ability to hit in the majors. He struck out 29.3 percent of the time in the minors and 35.1 percent of the time in the majors. But this is a 6-foot-7 behemoth who just turned 21 years old in October.

He has big-time power for a player so young, as he had 23 HRs in 2024 and 25 HRs in 2025 in the minors. Also, an extremely small sample, but he basically hit everything hard when he got to San Francisco. He had a 68.8 percent hard-hit rate and 95.6 MPH Avg. EV (both would've been near the top of the league).

I expect Eldridge to figure out how to make enough contact very soon and become one of the best slugging first basemen for fantasy. He was a borderline top-10 non-debuted prospect for me before his late-season call-up.

No. 5: Sal Stewart, Cincinnati Reds

Age in 2029: 25.30

It's somewhat unclear what the Reds' future plans are for Sal Stewart defensively. Stewart played primarily third base throughout his minor league career, but there are question marks about his defensive ability at third long term, and the Reds played him mostly at first when he got the call to the majors in September.

However, I don't have as many questions about Stewart's bat. He had a 152 WRC+ across Double-A and Triple-A with 20 HRs and a very solid 15.6 percent K-rate. His quality of contact metrics was also excellent.

Good morning @Reds it’s a beautiful day to promote Sal Stewart pic.twitter.com/8smZsro3a0

— Prospect Savant (@ProspectSavant) August 27, 2025

In his short stint in the majors, his plate approach wasn't great, as his K-rate spiked to 25.9 percent and his BB-rate was only 5.2 percent. However, he showed that he belonged in the majors with a 124 WRC+ and 5 HRs in only 58 PAs.

Other than Elly De La Cruz, Sal Stewart seems like the Reds' best offensive building block going forward. I expect him to be a middle-of-the-order thumper for them for years to come. He'll put up good batting averages and hit plenty of HRs in "Great American Small Park."

No. 4: Michael Busch, Chicago Cubs

Age in 2029: 31.38

Continuing from the Aranda segment, among older breakouts with great underlying metrics is Michael Busch. Very rarely do the fan bases of reigning World Series Champions wish they hadn't traded away a young player who was fully blocked on their team and is breaking out elsewhere.

However, I did see some Dodgers fans online wondering if Busch could've handled a corner outfield spot or second base for them this season.

Busch had a mini breakout in 2024 in his first time getting regular playing time in the majors, when he had a 118 WRC+ and 21 HRs. However, he really became a stud in 2025 with a 140 WRC+ and 34 HRs. Along with increasing his power, he was able to cut his K-rate down to 23.5 percent, which was a nice sign for the young slugger.

Like many sluggers on this list, Busch hit the ball hard and had great underlying stats.

One thing I find fascinating about Busch is his ability to hit for this much power while having such a low bat speed. Maybe he took some tips from Freeman, Mookie Betts, and Will Smith during his short tenure in Los Angeles, as they all can hit for good power while having slower bat speeds.

No. 3: Ben Rice, New York Yankees

Age in 2029: 30.09

Ben Rice, or Benny Arroz as some in the Bronx know him, is the third and final of the older breakout first basemen on this list. I know the Yankees might be weird with his playing time next year, as they were this year, in that he'll play some first, some DH, and some catcher, especially after Trent Grisham accepted his qualifying offer.

However, I expect the Yankees' plan for Rice sometime in the near future will be as the everyday DH. Let's get serious- he is not a good major league defensive catcher.

Wherever Rice plays, I expect him to mash. Rice had a 133 WRC+ with 26 HRs in 2025 while cutting his strikeout rate by 18.9 percent, which is in line with what he did in the minors. I think he should be even better in 2026, as he was one of the unluckiest hitters in the league this past season.

Rice's wOBA was 38 points lower than his xwOBA, which is the fourth-largest negative gap in the league. You would think a power-hitting left-handed bat in Yankee Stadium might actually be the beneficiary of some positive luck in this regard. Rice also has one of the best Savant pages in the league. Not only does he hit the ball extremely hard, but he rarely swings at bad pitches.

Rice was one of my favorite breakout hitters from this past season. His quality of contact metrics and plate discipline are both elite. He could be one of the best fantasy catchers going into this season and a long-term stud at first base for our dynasty rosters.

No. 2: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays

Age in 2029: 30.03

Vladdy Jr. has been the one young name at the top of the dynasty first base rankings alongside some of the older stars for the last few years. His combination of hit and power tools is close to unmatched.

He's coming off two strong seasons where he had a 164 and 137 WRC+. He struck out only 13.8 percent of the time, both seasons, while walking over 10 percent of the time.

However, it does seem like Guerrero has been a little bit disappointing from a fantasy standpoint. While he has put up good numbers, he has under 30 HRs in two of his last three seasons. Watching him in the playoffs this past October/November really showed the power upside he does have. It just hasn't shown through over the course of 162 games outside of his 2021 season.

Guerrero is likely a set-it-and-forget-it cornerstone for your dynasty roster and should be for years to come. However, he did lose his spot at the top of the first base mountain this season.

No. 1: Nick Kurtz, Athletics

Age in 2029: 26.04

This is probably going to be the least controversial number one at a respective position that there will be in my rankings articles. Although Guerrero made a little bit of a late push in the postseason, Kurtz is already looking like a fantasy monster and is four years younger.

I'm not sure Nick Kurtz's first full professional season could've gone much better. He made relatively light work of Triple-A before getting the call to the majors after a month. He then terrorized major league pitching with a 170 WRC+ and 36 HRs in only 117 games. He had the third-highest WRC+ among rookies this millennium behind Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez.

I do have some small concerns about Kurtz's swing and miss. He struck out 30.9 percent of the time, and his whiff rate was in the first percentile. If he can clean that up a bit, it's scary to think how good he can be. However, given how he impacts the ball, it might not matter much.

Honorable Mentions

• Matt Olson, ATL
• Vinnie Pasquantino, KC
• Bryce Harper, PHI
• Spencer Torkelson, DET
• Munetaka Murakami, FA

First Basemen I'm Projecting At Another Position

• Tyler Soderstrom, ATH (OF)
• Jac Caglianone, KC (OF)
• Rafael Devers, SF (DH)

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