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We investigate the NFL playoff contenders as we head into Week 10 of the NFL season. Which teams improved their position and who fell following Week 9? What key games lay ahead as we look toward the postseason?
AFC Contender #1: Indianapolis Colts
The Colts sit at 7-2 atop the AFC playoff race despite a 27-20 loss to Pittsburgh that was more embarrassing than the scoreboard suggests. Daniel Jones struggled with three interceptions, and a previously unstoppable Jonathan Taylor was held to 45 yards on 14 carries. They battled back in the fourth quarter, but the 17-point deficit with 14 minutes left was too much.
We won’t let one wayward game overshadow an NFL-leading 34 touchdowns! They’ll host the Falcons before a Week 11 bye, and then they’ll travel to Arrowhead Stadium for a crucial playoff readiness test against the Chiefs. If they can keep this up, however, they’ll enjoy homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.
AFC Contender #2: New England Patriots
New England squeaked by the Falcons thanks to a Parker Romo missed extra point, but a win’s a win. Folks can point to a bottom-three strength of schedule all they like, but the Pats have now banged out six straight wins, including the statement 23-20 road win in Buffalo.
They can put another league-wide notice out with a win in Tampa Bay this upcoming week, but even a loss shouldn’t steer them out of any playoff pictures. They still have both Jets games ahead of them, as well as matchups with the Giants and Miami.
AFC Contender #3: Denver Broncos
The fourth-quarter Broncos struck again on Sunday, this time clawing back against a tough Houston defense to an 18-15 victory. It didn’t require quite the fanfare as that 33-32 win over the Giants did, but it resulted in a sixth straight win all the same. The optimist can point to resilience and ultimately winning in the end, with wins against Philadelphia and tight losses to the Colts and Chargers.
The pessimist can say that this team has barely beaten the Giants, Jets, and Texans of late. Either way, they appear playoff-bound, but Bo Nix must show that he’s going to play a complete 60 minutes of football. They should roll the Raiders at home on Thursday before hosting the Chiefs on 10 days’ rest.
AFC Contender #4: Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen’s Bills did their best to erase the memory of their loss to New England and Atlanta with a 28-21 victory over the Chiefs. And they had that 40-9 trouncing of the Panthers as well.
We’d expect them to similarly crush the Dolphins ahead of an intriguing home game against the Bucs. It is a bit surprising not to see them make a move to bolster the WR corps, but surely there’s a plan. Or we all should just have that much faith in Dalton Kincaid taking the leap!
AFC Contender #5: Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh could’ve rolled over to Indianapolis after losing to Cincinnati and Green Bay, but they rallied to hold at 5-3 rather than 4-4. Their remaining strength of schedule metric isn’t strong, but that’s a juked stat with two games against a recovered and surging Baltimore Ravens team.
Alongside those, they have road games against the Chargers, Bears, and Lions to come. Their current 288 yards per game tally is 28th in the NFL. Can the defense do enough to keep them competitive?
AFC Contender #6: Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers came out stumbling against the Titans, but recovered in time for a 27-20 win. We’ll see if Justin Herbert and his elite group of receivers, and an emerging star at tight end in Oronde Gadsden, can overcome a porous offensive line that just lost Joe Alt (again).
The passing game and the defense will have to keep them in contention here. Let’s see how they handle T.J. Watt and the Steelers front this weekend, because they’ll need to stay ahead of things before late-season dates with the Eagles, Chiefs, and Broncos.
AFC Contender #7: Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags are 5-3, even if public perception doesn’t align with the healthy W/L tally. Trading for Jakobi Meyers shows that they’re willing to address weaknesses and try to help Trevor Lawrence amidst several pass-catcher injuries.
Travis Hunter and Brenton Strange are on the injured reserve, while Brian Thomas Jr. hasn’t looked right all year and is now dealing with a low-ankle sprain. They may face a Davis Mills-led Texans team in Week 10 and still have both Tennessee games ahead, though their two Indianapolis contests also loom. Stay tuned!
AFC Contender #8: Kansas City Chiefs
The defending AFC Champions had built up momentum with three consecutive wins after a 2-3 start, but Buffalo dashed that by stifling Patrick Mahomes II for much of the day. Now at 5-4 on the bye week, they’ll need to come out swinging in a tough road game at Denver in Week 11 before a Week 12 home showdown with the Colts.
They’ve shown a strong form at Arrowhead Stadium, but they’re 1-3 on the road. They’ll need a good second half of the season to host many playoff games in a tough conference!
AFC Contender #9: Baltimore Ravens
Even after a 2-5 start, much was made across social media of Baltimore still being the betting favorites to win the AFC North. They illustrated why the money is keeping the faith with a 28-6 win over Miami on Thursday night, with Lamar Jackson tossing four touchdowns in his return to action.
The Ravens took it on the chin while Jackson got healthy, but they have plenty of time to surge back into the hunt. With both games against Pittsburgh still ahead, the divisional landscape remains unsettled.
NFC Contender #1: Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles haven’t looked invincible, yet they sit at 6-2 in clear control of the NFC East. The Cowboys are in second place at 3-5-1, giving the Eagles a commanding position. But Philadelphia only has a +23 points margin across eight games, which sat at -1 after the 34-17 loss to the Giants in Week 7.
Despite some cracks in the armor, they’ll hope to have Saquon Barkley and A.J. Brown healthy for a Monday night showdown with the Packers at Lambeau. They’ll then face the Lions, Cowboys, Bears, and Chargers, so they’ll have the opportunity to show they’re “back” before a key Week 17 road showdown with the Bills.
NFC Contender #2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield and a quietly improved defense are doing their best to roll with the injuries ravaging their offense, which has led to a 6-2 record atop the NFC South. They’re hopeful that Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin can soon return, while Mike Evans hopes to recover from his fractured collarbone before the regular season is over.
They’ll face contenders in the Patriots, Rams, and Bills, but also should handle the Saints, Dolphins, Cardinals, and Falcons. Beyond that, two games against the 5-4 Panthers could decide the division if Carolina heats up.
NFC Contender #3: Seattle Seahawks
The 12th Man has enjoyed three straight wins over lackluster competition in Jacksonville, Houston, and Washington, but we’ve seen more than a few signals that this could be a dominant team. At 6-2 with a robust +81 point differential, Sam Darnold has quieted any preseason concerns about stepping up against pressure.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a certified star, while Tuesday’s trade for Rashid Shaheed reunites the WR with offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak. Mix in Tory Horton’s electrifying breakout on Monday night next to two strong rushers and TEs, and you’ve got a stew going.
Oh, and the defense’s 27 sacks, 10.5% QB hurry rate, and 31.1% rate of opposing drives ending in a score are all top-five NFL marks. After a home game against the Cardinals in Week 10, they’ll face the Rams in a massive NFC West showdown.
NFC Contender #4: Green Bay Packers
The Packers just ate a brutal 16-13 loss to Carolina, which also saw Tucker Kraft be lost for the season to a torn ACL. Both of Green Bay’s losses have been uncompetitive on the offensive side, but the record is still good for No. 1 in the NFC North.
They will get Jayden Reed back for the stretch run, but he won’t be there for Monday night’s premier showdown with the Eagles. Can Jordan Love and company step up and take down the defending champs in primetime?
NFC Contender #5: Los Angeles Rams
Since losing an overtime heartbreaker to San Francisco on Thursday Night Football, the Rams have crushed it. They’ve enjoyed easy wins over Baltimore, Jacksonville, and New Orleans, dominating by a collective margin of 86-20.
We’ll be monitoring Puka Nacua’s chest/rib injury, as they’ll need all hands on deck with two crucial games coming up. First, they’ll need to even the seasonal series with the 49ers, and then they’ll host the Seahawks.
NFC Contender #6: San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers haven’t won in headline-grabbing ways and have seen many key players miss time due to injury, but they’re 6-3 with a strong 6-1 conference record and 3-0 divisional record. The losses to Houston and Jacksonville don’t help their public perception, but being in such a strong divisional/conference position can do wonders with future tiebreakers.
If they can win the series with the 49ers or Rams, then they’re in the driver’s seat. Much will boil down to how well Ricky Pearsall heals up and how the defense holds it together without Fred Warner.
NFC Contender #7: Detroit Lions
The Lions lost their NFC North edge with a divisional loss to the Vikings at home. We’re used to this cutthroat division sending multiple teams to the playoffs by now, and it looks like 2-3 teams should once again represent them. The offense is still rolling with nearly 30 points per game, which is second in the NFL.
Their defense needs to get healthy and continue to make adjustments with what they’ve got, but they do get a Washington team reeling from the loss of Jayden Daniels this week. After that, they must show up for a massive road date on Sunday night in Philadelphia.
NFC Contender #8: Carolina Panthers
Carolina’s big win over the Packers firmly puts them on the contenders map at 5-4, with a commitment to Rico Dowdle driving the offense to glory. The limited upside seen with Bryce Young can’t be ignored, but Dowdle has 652 rushing yards over the last five games, averaging 6.3 yards per tote in the process.
Succeeding against the Packers helps give faith moving forward after running well against poor units, like the Cowboys and Dolphins. The winning record does come with a -35 point differential, but the Bucs are not 100% and both head-to-head games between the two lie ahead.
NFC Contender #9: Chicago Bears
The Bears are in a healthy current position at 5-3, but the division is tough sledding, and their remaining schedule is particularly brutal. Seven future games are against contenders in this piece, with two against Green Bay, then matchups with Philadelphia, Detroit, San Francisco, Minnesota, and Pittsburgh.
If they go roughly .500 on those and then win against the Giants and Browns, then an 11-6 or 10-7 finish is in the cards.
NFC Contender #10: Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota bounced back to an even 4-4 with an upset win over the Lions. J.J. McCarthy’s return to play yielded three touchdowns, though his efficiency and pushing the ball downfield remain limited. That said, it was just his third career NFL game!
If the time away while rehabbing his ankle injury and working with Kevin O’Connell can yield winning efforts like this, no matter how “gritty,” then they can inch their way into the playoff picture.
