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Expert Week 3 Thursday Night Football bets, anytime TD scorer, and player prop predictions. Free TNF betting picks, anytime TD scorer, and player props for Week 3.
Thursday Night Football heads to Buffalo this week as we get a divisional matchup between the 2-0 Buffalo Bills and 0-2 Miami Dolphins. Both teams are coming off divisional matchups as well, with the Bills taking care of business at the Jets and the Dolphins losing a shootout to the Patriots.
Miami is an 11.5-point underdog on the road, and the 49.5-point total is the third-highest of the week. Miami's defense has been porous through two weeks, ranking last in EPA/Play (0.239). The Bills are still the juggernaut Super Bowl contender that we expected them to be.
Can Miami go on the road to avoid a 0-3 start? Or will the Bills continue their head-to-head dominance against the Dolphins? Let's get to the picks!
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Thursday Night Football Odds and Spread
Miami Dolphins +11.5 (+570 ML) at Buffalo Bills (-820 ML)
Over/Under (49.5)
The Bills are second in the NFL in points so far and face a cupcake matchup against a Miami defense that has shown zero resistance thus far. They allowed 33 points in each of their first two games to a Daniel Jones-led offense and a Drake Maye-led offense that lacks weapons. Josh Allen and company should feast at a similar level. Week 2 against the Jets wasn't the cleanest game for Josh Allen as he was a bit inaccurate with a -9.4 Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), and completed only 14 of 25 passes for 148 yards. But he rushed for 60 yards as well and cruised to an easy road victory.
Josh Allen is 6-0 on Thursday Night Football. pic.twitter.com/eXJ7pEOSfG
— BillsMuse (@BillsMusee) September 15, 2025
Tua Tagovailoa is just 1-8 against the Buffalo Bills in his career, with some concerning stats. He has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns (9 TDs, 10 INTs) and has consistently struggled in the cold. Even the one victory in September of 2022 was a bit fluky because they ran only 39 plays to the Bills' 90 and were outgained 497 to 212. The game included the infamous "Butt Punt" late in the game and sent the Dolphins to a 3-0 start in head coach Mike McDaniel's first season in Miami.
THE PUNT GOES OUT THE REAR OF THE END ZONE! #FinsUp
📺: #BUFvsMIA on CBS
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/AgvEitKLgz pic.twitter.com/Ry39X0bkrK— NFL (@NFL) September 25, 2022
However, it's worth pointing out that Tagovailoa's most recent game at Buffalo in November 2024 was one of the better games of his career. He completed 25 of 28 passes (89.3% completion rate) for 231 yards with two passing touchdowns, his highest completion rate in a game in his career. It was an elite performance by the advanced analytics for the lefty quarterback as well, with a 0.68 EPA/Play (98th percentile) and 65% passing success rate. The short week throws everything for a loop, but there could be a lot of points.
Thursday Night Football Game Picks
We'll dig into a few more of these individual matchups that these two teams have had over the years with Tagovailoa and Allen at QB. These two teams played on Thursday Night Football last season in Week 2 in Miami. It was a brutal 31-10 loss for Miami that also featured a bigger loss with Tua Tagovailoa suffering a concussion in the game and missing multiple games. Then, as mentioned earlier, Tagovailoa had one of the most efficient games of his career in a later matchup in November, but lost on a 61-yard walk-off field goal by Tyler Bass.
TYLER BASS 61-YARD FIELD GOAL WITH 5 SECONDS LEFT. pic.twitter.com/PZWTOebKnJ
— NFL (@NFL) November 3, 2024
The lone win of Tua's career against Buffalo was an incredibly unusual game, played in 100-degree heat. However, the late game in 2022 was also one of his better performances, and Miami's run game was one of the bigger stories despite the loss. Tagovailoa threw for 234 yards and two touchdowns in a cold mid-December game in Buffalo, and Miami ran for 188 yards. They again lost on a walk-off chip shot 25-yard field goal by Tyler Bass.
2 years ago Tyler Bass clinched the bills their 4th straight playoff spot vs the Dolphins in the snow.
He has done it again in a even better fashion today 😏 pic.twitter.com/IGdLWbySES
— BillsMuse (@BillsMusee) November 3, 2024
Buffalo is one of the three best teams in the NFL right now, and Miami is trending to be a bottom-10 team. The offense is still good enough to keep them in games with Tua Tagovailoa healthy and the trio of weapons with Tyreek Hill (for now), Jaylen Waddle, and De'Von Achane. The secondary is extremely poor, but the defensive line has some dudes that are capable of getting after the passer.
I don't expect the Dolphins to win the game, but I think they can keep it within shouting distance with their offense keeping pace with Buffalo. The Bills are weaker against the run, so we will see if Miami can take advantage. Plus, Buffalo is dealing with big injuries on the defensive side with Ed Engram and Matt Milano.
The Picks: Miami +11.5, (-106), Over 49.5 (-118)
Thursday Night Football Player Props
All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
De'Von Achane Over 5.5 Receptions (-114)
Achane caught over six balls a game with Tua Tagovailoa healthy and playing quarterback last season, and he easily led the running back position in receptions. He caught just three balls in a weird Week 1 game where Miami didn't run very many plays, but then he made up for it with eight receptions against New England in Week 2.
De’Von Achane is playing at a different level so far this season…
His elusiveness is top tier. pic.twitter.com/PFTu4z3YQQ
— Jake (@FinsCentral) September 16, 2025
Head coach Mike McDaniel schemes up a ton of easy touches for him to get him the ball in the flat or on screens. It's an extension of their run game and works to stretch the defense horizontally. And when Tagovailoa is in trouble, he often looks in Achane's direction for a checkdown.
Keon Coleman Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Coleman feels like a player who can follow in the footsteps of Michael Pittman Jr., who had a strong game catching six of eight targets for 80 yards and a touchdown in Week 1 against Miami. Coleman and Pittman are relatively similar players in that they're both bigger at 6'4" and lack great long speed. They both have some ability to play inside and outside receiver, and can take advantage of a weaker Dolphins defensive back room.
Coleman broke out for eight catches on 11 targets for 112 yards and a touchdown against the Ravens in Week 1, perhaps establishing himself as Josh Allen's No. 1 wide receiver. But he settled down with a modest three catch for 26 yards game in Week 2 as the Bills went with an ultra-run-heavy game plan. We're not expecting that here.
Josh Allen Over 29.5 Passing Attempts (-120)
The Dolphins' defensive weakness is through the air currently, and the Bills are set up to take advantage with their deep wide receiver core. In their most recent matchup, Allen attempted 39 passes as they won at the last second.
This play is contingent on the Dolphins' offense not being a disaster and keeping pace with Buffalo to some degree. The Bills' defense has already suffered a couple of key injuries that will impact this game. The Dolphins' offense got back into a groove last week against the Patriots and looked mostly back to their efficient ways. That will help keep pushing the Bills to score more and be aggressive, attacking the Dolphins' weak links in the secondary.
Jaylen Waddle Anytime Touchdown (+210)
Waddle secured his first receiving touchdown of the season last week and has now been targeted in the Red Zone in both of Miami's first two games. His 50% Red Zone target share leads the team, yet his odds to score are lower than both Tyreek Hill and DeVon Achane.
More Picks and Analysis
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