MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (9/13/2025)

September 13, 2025

Thunder Dan's best MLB player prop bets for today (9/13/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Pete Alonso, Brandon Lowe, Gavin Sheets, and Colton Cowser.

Who doesn't love the long ball? Chicks dig them, right? And let's admit it, even the baseball nerds like myself who are obsessed with the most obscure stats and Sabremetrics still love the sweet sound of the baseball being crushed by the bat and sent flying deep into the stands.

The strategy for targeting home run props involves several key factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to ensure we're getting a favorable price with betting odds. In this article, I attempt to provide home run bets with as much value as possible. I try not to pick the obvious plays, especially when the plan is to use them in a round-robin format. Hitting a couple of value home runs when we can provides significant upside in a round robin.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Saturday, September 13, 2025. Odds for each pick are from Fanduel or DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary greatly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (9/13/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Saturday, September 13:

• Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays
• Pete Alonso, New York Mets
• Colton Cowser, Baltimore Orioles
• Gavin Sheets, San Diego Padres

Brandon Lowe OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+350 FanDuel)

We kick things off this afternoon at Wrigley Field with the Cubs hosting the Rays. The wind is blowing out a bit, but to left field, not right, which is where we'd like to see it for lefties. Nevertheless, I have to roll with Lowe in this spot as he's set to face Cubs' starter Colin Rea, who has extremely wide splits this season with lefties faring quite well against him.

Brandon Lowe - Tampa Bay Rays (28)
pic.twitter.com/0NSax10Azx

— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) August 31, 2025

Rea has allowed 14 home runs to LHH this season and some really bad batted ball metrics of a 14.6% Barrel% and 43% HH%. He's very four-seam fastball heavy to lefties, which bodes quite well for Lowe, who has done some serious yard work this season against fastballs.

Lowe has eight home runs on fastballs from righties and has a .318 average, .635 SLG, and .318 ISO. His batted ball metrics against fastballs are off the charts with a 26.4% Barrel%, 64% HH%, and a 45% FB% suggests that he's far more likely to elevate the pitch than drive it into the ground.

Lowe's uppercut swing is a thing of beauty, and it will look even better today if he connects on a fastball and brings us home with an early afternoon cash.

Colton Cowser OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+450 FanDuel)

We have had some success targeting Max Scherzer with power lefties this season, so why not keep attacking the old man? Scherzer is no longer the power pitcher he once was and has really lost his ability to blow fastballs by hitters this season, especially lefties, who are slugging .513 against him with an incredible 16.8% Barrel%. Max has allowed 11 home runs to lefties this season in just 74 innings pitched.

Cowser has two home runs against Scherzer in just five plate appearances. One of those home runs was last season when he was in Texas, but the other one came back in March of this season. Both of them were crushed at 110 mph exit velocity and were on four-seam fastballs.

Cowser has a .614 SLG and .333 ISO against four-seamers this season as well as a 20.5% Barrel% and 43$ FB%. If he's sitting dead red on a fastball from Mad Max today, I like his chances of turning it around and driving it a long way.

Pete Alonso OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+254 DraftKings)

There was a time when I automatically bet on an Alonso home run prop anytime he was facing Patrick Corbin based on how the Polar Bear has owned Corbin throughout his career. However, this is not a blind BvP bet today. I had to dig into this matchup a bit further before deciding to go back to Pete in this spot today against Corbin.

The odds suggest that this is one of the most likely home runs today, which should tell you something considering Alonso has been pretty cold in the second half. He hasn't homered in 11 days since he hit two bombs in the same game back on September 2. But Pete matches up so well against Corbin that I have to give him a shot today. Let me elaborate.

Alonso has a .371 average and four home runs against Corbin going back to 2020. But he hasn't homered off Corbin since 2022, and we've seen Corbin reinvent himself this year in Texas by tinkering with his pitch mix a bit. He's still primarily a sinker-slider pitcher, but he's upped his slider usage this year and started throwing a cutter instead of a four-seamer (which is a good idea since his fastball used to get crushed).

This season, Corbin has gotten good results against righties with all three pitches, limiting them to under a .400  SLG and .200 ISO on each. However, Alonso has always been a sinker-mashing righty, and this season he's continued that with a .587 SLG and .212 ISO against the pitch. The real wrinkle for me here is that Pete is destroying cutters this year with a 1.045 SLG and .682 ISO, which is the other pitch he's most likely to see from Corbin.

Don't be surprised if Corbin goes heavy on sliders to Alonso to keep him from sitting on the sinker and cutter, but if he leaves either of those pitches out over the plate, then Alonso has a history of depositing them into the outfield seats.

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Gavin Sheets OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+455 DraftKings)

My final home run call comes from the Padres as they face Colorado righty Bradley Blalock. He's racked up a 9.07 ERA so far across nine starts and 47 innings while sporting a 2.1 HR/9 - yikes! He's not pitching at home in Coors tonight, but he will have to face a potent Padres lineup that includes some solid lefty power bats.

Blalock has allowed a .589 SLG to lefties this season and a .232 ISO. He's faced Sheets three times this year, back in May, and Sheets had some extremely hard contact in all three at-bats. He homered on a fastball, crushed a curveball 411 feet that somehow didn't leave the ballpark, and then singled in his third at-bat.

Gavin Sheets since August 1st:

190 wRC+
.439 wOBA
.299 ISO
1.039 OPS

His 190 wRC+ ranks 8th in MLB among hitters, w/ at least 50 ABs, in that time period pic.twitter.com/D9dXoVUcGp

— Clark Fahrenthold (@CFahrenthold11) September 9, 2025

Sheets is having a fantastic season in San Diego and doing exactly what they needed him to do, providing pop from the left side of the plate that they so badly missed in years prior. With Jackson Merrill, Sheets, Ryan O'Hearn, and Jake Cronenworth all being formidable lefties now in this lineup, the Padres finally have some balance from both sides of the plate.

Thanks for reading, I hope our homers hit tonight! Good luck if you are tailing these bets!

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