First Look for NFL DFS Research: Week 1 Vegas Totals, Salaries, Top Daily Fantasy Football Matchups

September 4, 2025

Zach Thompson looks into the NFL DFS projections for Week 1 to pick out some spots to attack and mispriced players for your FanDuel and DraftKings DFS lineups.

The NFL is back! Week 1 of the NFL season is finally here, and this Sunday features 13 matchups with Thursday, Friday, and Monday prime-time games to help kick off the season. In this post, we'll dive in and get an early look at Sunday's action. Check out which teams and stacks stand out for the first NFL DFS contests of the season and where the data points us.

This post is designed to be a one-stop shop for readers as they begin their DFS research for the week. While it always pays to wait for all the relevant information during the week regarding weather, injuries, and even Vegas line movement, it's also a good idea to get out in front of things early and at least start formulating a play. There's always a lot of data to consume!

We are looking at the NFL DFS main slate for FanDuel and DraftKings on Sunday, September 7. This analysis and data dump will vary from week to week, but hopefully it's helpful in kickstarting your research. Since it's a new season, we're looking at last year's data for some of our info this week, and as we get to know the 2025 versions of these teams better, we'll have more current info to work with. Do yourself a favor if you haven't already and pick up an NFL RotoBaller Premium Season Pass and get all of the premium NFL DFS tools to help you have a successful season.

Week 1 Vegas Totals and Team Data

In this section, we take a look at which teams should be expected to put up the most actual points this week (which usually means fantasy points, too). With it being Week 1, the offense and defense info is from the 2024 season.

You shouldn't target ONLY the teams who are expected to score the most points, but the majority of your players are going to come from these teams each week. Deciding which offenses are worthy of stacking (and of course, how you are going to stack them) is the challenge!

Top Implied Team Totals for Week 1: Main Slate Only

1. Bengals - 26.5
2. Commanders - 25.75
3. Jaguars/Buccaneers/Broncos/Packers - 25
4. Cardinals - 24.75
5. Colts - 24

2024 Top-Scoring Offenses: Points Per Game

1. Lions - 33.1
2. Buccanners - 29
3. Commanders 28.8
4. Bengals - 27.8
5. Packers - 26.1

2024 Stingiest Defenses: Points Allowed Per Game

1. Broncos - 19
2. Packers - 20
3. Steelers - 20.8
4. Ravens - 21.2
5. Dolphins/Texans - 21.4

The Cincinnati Bengals come in with the highest point total as they open the season against their in-state rivals from Cleveland. Joe Burrow has been getting praise and hype all preseason, and the team has done all it can to avoid replicating last year's slow start. The Bengals will be a popular and productive stack as they visit the Browns, who they beat twice in the regular season last year. They won in Cleveland Week 7, 21-14, and followed that up with a 24-6 victory in Week 16.

The Commanders are the other team that stands out with a high implied point total as they face the Giants in another divisional game. Jayden Daniels got his first NFL victory in Week 2 of last year when he beat the Giants, 21-18. Later in the season, the Commanders went on the road and won 27-22 at MetLife Stadium. He'll have some new options in his offense, as he and the Commanders look to build on last year's run to the NFC Championship game.

is it September 7th at 1pm yet? @Seatgeek | #RaiseHail pic.twitter.com/JqnZH9ZH6j

— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) August 29, 2025

The Jaguars, Bucs, Broncos, and Packers all check in with an implied total of exactly 25 points. The Jags, Bucs, and Broncos play some of the most beatable defenses from last year, while the Packers could be in for a high-scoring home game against the Lions.

Week 1 DFS Matchups

Here, we want to get specific not only with some mismatches for both passing and rushing offenses, but also with some individual positional matchups as well. Rankings are based on last year's defenses, so there could be variance with all the offseason shuffling.

Top-5 Matchups for Passing Offenses

(Yards Passing and Yards Allowed Passing ranks in parentheses)

1. Carolina (29) vs. Jacksonville (32)
2. Green Bay (14) vs. Detroit (31)
3. Atlanta (5) vs. Tampa Bay (30)
4. Arizona (18) vs. New Orleans (28)
5. Miami (16) vs. Indianapolis (26)

Bryce Young looked much better after returning to the starting lineup last year for the Panthers, and he'll have a good chance to build on that momentum in a favorable spot against the Jaguars in Week 1. He'll have the opportunity to work with new WR1, Tetairoa McMillan, but the rest of the Panthers pass-catchers are thin, which could open great value to mix into a Carolina passing game stack.

Another young quarterback with a chance to make a statement early will be Michael Penix Jr. as he takes on the Bucs at home at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Penix starts his first full season as the starter in what should be a favorable spot against the Bucs, and he flashed a high ceiling in his work towards the end of last season.

All the best from Penix Jr.’s 2024 season 😤@themikepenix | @BudLight pic.twitter.com/WsTCu9kZSR

— NFL (@NFL) August 26, 2025

The Packers and Lions will meet in probably the most hyped matchup of the Sunday afternoon slate. While Micah Parsons and the defense will get plenty of attention, Jordan Love and the passing game should be in a good spot against Detroit. Jayden Reed (foot) is going to play through a Jones fracture in his left foot to start the year, and rookie Matthew Golden could step up alongside Reed and Romeo Doubs with Christian Watson (knee) out to start the season.

The Dolphins will be interesting to watch against the Colts to see if Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy and start fast, and if Jaylen Waddle will really emerge as the go-to option ahead of Tyreek Hill, as has been the rumblings this offseason. With De'Von Achane (calf) banged up, the Dolphins could rely on their passing game more heavily than usual in Week 1.

Top-5 Matchups for Rushing Offenses

1. Jacksonville (25) vs. Carolina (32)
2. NY Giants (22) vs. Washington (31)
3. Arizona (7) vs. New Orleans (30)
4. Houston (13) vs. LA Rams (28)
5. Washington (4) vs. NY Giants (26)

The two top-10 rushing offenses from last year who have great matchups to start this season are the Cardinals and the Commanders. The Cardinals are in the Superdome against the Saints with a projected timeshare between veteran James Conner and second-year back Trey Benson. Benson is expected to be more involved this year, but Conner continues to prove to be a reliable workhorse. The Commanders also switched up their backfield this offseason, sending Brian Robinson Jr. to the 49ers and adding in rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt. Both rotations will be critical to watch coming into the year and offer huge upside in Week 1. While there's still time for news to break and the situation to shift, Chris Rodriguez Jr. is an intriguing name to keep an eye on headed into the weekend.

Interesting Commanders nugget from @AdamKilgoreWP that has fantasy implications

Jacory Croskey-Merritt 10.12 ADP
Chris Rodriguez Jr. 12.11 pic.twitter.com/JbVnx5QjLt

— Neil Greenberg (@ngreenberg) August 26, 2025

The Jaguars get the best matchup on the board since they're taking on the Panthers, who gave up more rushing yards than any other team in the NFL last season. Which Jags running back to use is a little tricky since both Travis Etienne Jr. and Tank Bigsby got work with the starters this preseason, and Bhayshul Tuten also made an impressive impact as a rookie. One of them could go off in this matchup, and the timeshare will definitely be worth watching as the season progresses.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. looks to be the top back for the Giants as they take on the Commanders, while the Texans will likely turn to Nick Chubb with Joe Mixon (foot/ankle) on IR. Woody Marks and Dameon Pierce could get some work as well, depending on how Chubb looks in his Texans' debut.

2023 Top-5 DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matchups for Each Position

(Top matchup listed first, player to target in parentheses)

QB - Jacksonville (Young), Carolina (Lawrence), Tampa Bay (Penix Jr.), Cincinnati (Flacco), Atlanta (Mayfield)

RB - Carolina (Etienne or Bigsby), Jacksonville (Hubbard), N.Y. Giants (Rodriguez or Croskey-Merritt), New Orleans (Conner), San Francisco (Walker III)

WR - Cincinnati (Jeudy), Carolina (Thomas Jr.), Las Vegas (Diggs/Williams), Indianapolis (Waddle), L.A. Rams (Collins)

TE - Carolina (Strange), N.Y. Jets (Smith/Freiermuth), Las Vegas (Henry), Miami (Warren), Atlanta (Durham)

DEF - Cleveland (CIN), Tennessee (DEN), N.Y. Giants (WAS), Houston (LAR), Las Vegas (NE)

The Jaguars and Panthers were both very beatable defenses last year, so we could get some fantasy fireworks in that matchup, since, as you can see, they give up plenty of fantasy points to multiple positions. The Bengals-Browns game also pops up a few times, with the Browns possibly sneaking in as a contrarian stack if Joe Flacco continues to prove to be reliable.

The running back rotations will be key to figure out for this week's slate and to watch to get an idea of who is carrying the load going forward.

The matchups for DEF could be radically different this year from last year, so make sure to remember these numbers are from 2024. The Browns, Titans, Giants, and Raiders have all changed quarterbacks since last year's defense-friendly numbers.

Week 1 DFS Salary Analysis

If you play exclusively on FanDuel or DraftKings (unlike me), then you may not find this next part all that helpful. But for those of you who play on both sites, this section is designed to compare salaries between the two sites in search of disparate value.

Most DFS players use similar player pools on both sites, but the point-per-dollar value of each player matters especially when making some tough decisions at the end of your roster. Remember that projections vary from FanDuel to DraftKings, as DK uses full-PPR scoring as well as player performance bonuses. It's also important to remember that DK uses a $50K salary cap while FanDuel uses $60K. These value numbers are calculated based on a comparison of the percentage of salary cap space, not just pure salary.

FanDuel Values (FD, DK)

1. Trey McBride ($6.3K vs. $6.2K)
2. Jayden Higgins ($4K vs. $4.8K)
3. Kyle Williams ($4K vs. $4.3K)
4. Woody Marks($4K vs. $5.2K)
5. Jaylen Waddle ($5.5K vs. $5.7K)

DraftKings Values (DK, FD)

1. Sam Darnold ($5.3K vs. $7.5K)
2. Cam Ward ($5K vs. $7.1K)
3. Noah Brown ($3.1K vs. $5.1K)
4. Sterling Shepard ($3.1K vs. $4.8K)
5. Jonathan Taylor ($6.8K vs. $8.3K)

Cheap Stacks (DK, FD)

There are plenty of cheap value plays to fit around expensive stacks. As the pricing tightens up each week, I like to look for some of the cheapest viable stacks that feature the QB and one of their receivers (could be WR1, WR2, or TE1).

1. Young - McMillan ($10.9K, $12.4K)
2. Lawrence - Thomas Jr. ($12.1K, $14.7K)
3. Maye - Diggs ($10.8K, $12.7K)
4. Nix - Sutton ($12.3K, $14.1K)
5. Murray - Harrison Jr. ($11.9K, $14.2K)

Notable Rookie Salaries (DK, FD)

1. Cam Ward ($5K, $7.1K)
2. Ashton Jeanty ($7K, $6.4K)
3. Travis Hunter ($5K, $5.7K)
4. Tetairoa McMillan ($5.2K, $5.6K)
5. TreVeyon Henderson ($5.5K, $4.7K)
6. Emeka Egbuka ($4.6K, $5K)
7. RJ Harvey ($5.8K, $5.7K)
8. Matthew Golden ($4.9K, $5.4K)
9. Kaleb Johnson ($5.3K, $5.5K)
10. Tyler Warren ($4.4K, $5.1K)
11. Jayden Higgins ($4.8K, $4K)
12. Jacory Croskey-Merritt ($4K, $4K)
13. Bhayshul Tuten($4.4K, $4.6K)
14. Kyle Williams ($4.3K, $4K)
15. Jaylin Noel ($3.8K, $4K)

Alright, that's it for Week 1 and my data dump! I took quite a bit of time to find some stats that I hope you find helpful, so that you don't have to!

Good luck, and make sure you continue following RotoBaller all season long for the best fantasy football, DFS, and betting advice!

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