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Read our best NRFI betting picks today - Major League Baseball NRFI predictions for 8/12/2025. No Runs First Inning (NRFI) betting tips, expert MLB predictions, odds, and trends.
We're back in action with NRFIs and YRFIs for a loaded Tuesday slate in MLB. We again fell flat with a 2-3 record on Saturday, but we continue to pick our spots right with YRFIs. The ultimate goal is to turn a profit by identifying favorable odds, though predicting first-inning outcomes is no easy task.
We'll keep it the same this time around with four NRFI picks and one YRFI pick. As always, we'll be looking at a variety of advanced stats on the team and pitcher level to find an edge.
On this page, I'll provide my best NRFI bets today for MLB games on Tuesday, August 12, 2025. Monitor the weather and lineups for each team before placing your wagers. Odds for these bets are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
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What Are MLB NRFI/YRFI Bets?
NRFI bets are bets where you try to pick whether or not two MLB teams will combine for one run in the first inning. YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning," while NRFI means "No Run First Inning."
We prefer to target NRFI because it tends to happen more often, which is why you usually see shorter odds compared to YRFI. It's also just more enjoyable, as whenever I take a YRFI, it feels like an inevitable loss. There's nothing more tilting than watching your team strand baserunners when you need them to score in the first inning. If you're taking the YRFI, I suggest not even watching the game.
My favorite part of NRFI wagers is how they settle so quickly. This is a fun sweat, as these six outs can be thrilling, especially if your pitcher works his way out of a jam. Just remember to only go with a smaller percentage of your bankroll because this can be a volatile market with even the best pitchers struggling in the first inning at times.
Best First Inning Bets Today (August 12, 2025)
- Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles: 6:35 pm ET
- Washington Nationals at Kansas City Royals: 7:40 pm ET
- Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinals: 7:45 pm ET
- Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros: 8:10 pm ET
- San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants: 9:45 pm ET
Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles NRFI (-102 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- SEA: George Kirby
- BAL: Dean Kremer
Kirby is on the bump for Seattle on Tuesday, and he's been rolling of late, allowing only four runs in his past 18 innings to go with 24 strikeouts. Kremer has hit a bit of a rough patch after a dominant stretch during the middle of the season, allowing 12 runs in his last 17 innings. But he did have the second-most whiffs in a game this season in his most recent outing in Philly. And he's fared much better at home for the year (2.89 ERA at home, 5.42 ERA on the road).
Mariners All-Time ERA leaders (min. 500 IP):
1️⃣ Luis Castillo (3.38)
T2️⃣ Randy Johnson (3.42)
Félix Hernández (3.42)
Hisashi Iwakuma (3.42)
James Paxton (3.42)
6️⃣ GEORGE KIRBY (3.51)
7️⃣ Logan Gilbert (3.58)— Mariners PR (@MarinersPR) August 11, 2025
Both squads are pretty neutral in first-inning scoring recently, as they are 7-3 to the NRFI in their last 10 games. Kirby and Kremer have been strong out of the gate all season, with Kirby posting a first-inning shutout in 79% of his starts and Kremer in 73%.
Washington Nationals at Kansas City Royals NRFI (-120 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- WAS: Mitchell Parker
- STL: Michael Wacha
This is an interesting matchup, as Wacha is one of the NRFI kings with a dominant 20-3 record this year. Since July 5, when he had his shortest start of the season since the very first start of the 2025 season with four innings, Wacha has rattled off a 1.78 ERA in 30.1 innings.
On the flip side, we have a pitcher in Mitchell Parker who is trending in the wrong direction. But he gets a favorable matchup in the Royals, who have scored the fewest runs against lefties all season.
Michael Wacha in Toronto:
8.0 IP
3 H
1 ER
0 BB
5 SOHis first 8-inning start since June 2022. pic.twitter.com/cw2o2VRby3
— StatMuse (@statmuse) August 2, 2025
The Royals have scored in the first inning just two times in their last 10 games with a collective .282 OBP. The Nationals are marginally better, scoring three times to go with a .268 OBP.
Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinals NRFI (-118 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- COL: Kyle Freeland
- STL: Matthew Liberatore
We get a matchup of dual lefties on Tuesday in St. Louis. Liberatore has had a breakthrough season for the Cardinals in 2024, owning a 3.98 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 113 innings. He gets the benefit of drawing the Road Rockies, who have the worst wOBA (.272) as a team away from their home ballpark.
Freeland hasn't been great this season or of late, but draws the Cardinals, who have not scored in the first inning in their last 10 games.
Matthew Liberatore, Pretty 77mph Curveball. 🌈 pic.twitter.com/qE5nMRsqtC
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 27, 2025
The Rockies are middle of the pack for first-inning scoring of late, with three in their last 10. Fresh off a home stand, their hitters are still in the adjustment period, and hopefully that allows Liberatore to take advantage with some rainbow curveballs.
Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros YRFI (-113 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- BOS: Dustin May
- HOU: Spencer Arrighetti
We’ve been hitting on our YRFI picks lately, and this matchup is our next target. Both teams have put up runs in their last 10 games, with the Astros scoring six times and the Red Sox scoring five. Both pitchers are going through changes, with Arrighetti making his second start since missing multiple months with injury. He got shelled in his return in Miami, allowing five runs in 3.2 innings.
The recently traded May also had a less-than-ideal turn on the bump at home against the Royals in his Red Sox debut, allowing three runs in 3.2 innings, the same as Arrighetti.
José Altuve, in particular, has been scorching at the plate recently. He is tied with Shea Langeliers for the league lead in August with three first-inning home runs.
Jose Altuve hits career home run No. 250! pic.twitter.com/RWOCuNCFxE
— MLB (@MLB) August 10, 2025
We have two red-hot offenses, two pitchers who are on the struggle bus, and one of the better ballparks for run production. And we get a favorable price as well.
San Diego Padres at San Francisco Padres NRFI (-145 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- SD: Nestor Cortes
- SF: Robbie Ray
The price is more juiced up on this one than we prefer, but it is a good spot for a NRFI. Ray has been one of the best starters in baseball this season, with a 2.85 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and a 16.1% K-BB%.
Cortes made his Padres debut last week and was serviceable over 4.2 innings, allowing two runs. After missing a lot of time with injury, he appears to have the velocity on his pitches mostly back to normal.
Robbie Ray, Nasty 86mph Changeup. pic.twitter.com/bXnnEYJN7o
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 20, 2025
Hitters haven't had the best time at Oracle Park this season, hitting the third-fewest home runs of any ballpark with 93. Narrowing down to the first inning, the results are pretty staggering. Starting pitchers own a 2.92 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in first innings at Oracle Park in 2025, with hitters slashing just .230/.299/.370.
Pitchers to open the game in San Francisco this season have essentially been equivalent to Mets left-handed starting pitcher David Peterson, who was an All-Star this season. And hitters have been reduced to Ozzie Albies level of production, who is having the worst season of his big league career with a 75 wRC+. The price is elevated, but it this a good spot for a NRFI to hit.
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