Joey Pollizze's Must-Avoid Fantasy Football Players and Bust Candidates: 5 Overvalued Draft Picks

June 25, 2025

Joey Pollizze goes through five players fantasy football managers should be avoiding in 2025 fantasy drafts. These players are set to bust this upcoming season.

Every fantasy football manager tries to avoid drafting busts each year. Sometimes, though, you can't escape it. In 2024 fantasy football drafts, there were plenty of busts throughout the first few rounds. Christian McCaffrey, Marvin Harrison Jr., Travis Etienne Jr., and Isiah Pacheco were just a couple of players who fell short of expectations last season.

To no surprise, there will be more unexpected fantasy busts this year. In this article, we will look at my five must-avoid players in 2025 fantasy football drafts. These players are not strong picks in the early to middle rounds of drafts and will be frustrating to own in all formats.

So, here are five players fantasy managers should be avoiding this season.

RB Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor has been a strong fantasy option in every season he has stayed healthy. He finished as the RB6 in PPR formats in his rookie season (2020), the RB1 in PPR formats the next year (2021), and the RB12 in PPR formats a season ago (2024). In all three of those campaigns, Taylor played at least 14 contests.

Over the final 4 weeks of the 2024 season Jonathan Taylor led the NFL in:

Rushing attempts - 117
Rushing yards - 627
Rushing touchdowns - 6

How high are your expectations for 2025? ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/pEX1ypUgxq

— SleeperColts (@SleeperColts) May 20, 2025

However, Taylor is someone to avoid early in fantasy drafts because he provides very little upside in the second round. He isn't a major factor in the passing game after catching only 18 passes for 136 yards in 2024, and the Colts running back has missed time in each of the past three seasons. The 26-year-old missed three games last year due to an ankle injury.

Additionally, Taylor was not a strong RB1 option for most of the 2024 campaign. 37.8% of his fantasy points came in the final three weeks of the season, and he was the RB27 before scoring 92.4 PPR fantasy points in his last three games. That strong finish then catapulted the running back up the fantasy ranks to help him finish as a low-end RB1.

Given how inconsistent Taylor was for the first 15 weeks, he should be off your fantasy boards in 2025. He scored under 15 PPR fantasy points in six of his first 11 games, and his lack of receiving caps his fantasy ceiling. The two-time Pro Bowler has totaled under 200 receiving yards in three straight years.

WR Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins

Fantasy managers were no doubt disappointed with Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill's production last year. He caught 81 passes for 959 yards and six touchdowns while playing in every game. His 81 catches and 959 receiving yards were his fewest in a season since 2019, and his six receiving touchdowns were tied for the lowest of his career. 

Those subpar numbers led to Hill finishing as the WR18 in PPR formats, his lowest fantasy finish since 2019. However, injuries played a big factor in the veteran's poor fantasy campaign. He dealt with a wrist injury for most of the year, and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa missed six games due to two different injuries.

With that wrist injury now in the past, some fantasy managers believe Hill can get back to being a strong fantasy option. He has finished as a top-6 fantasy wideout in four of the past five seasons and carries WR1 upside. But taking a wide receiver coming off a down year and entering his age-31 season is a risky pick.

That's why Hill is an avoid at his early third-round ADP. He lost a step last season, and this is usually the age when wide receivers start to fall off a cliff. The Dolphins also don't necessarily need to feed the eight-time Pro Bowler like they used to. Jaylen Waddle and De'Von Achane should all see plenty of opportunities in this offense again in 2025.

Even though tight end Jonnu Smith was shipped to Pittsburgh, Hill's declining production is not worth targeting at his ADP.

RB Joe Mixon, Houston Texans

Houston Texans running back Joe Mixon turned out to be a nice value in drafts last season. He averaged 17.2 PPR fantasy points per game and finished as a top-8 running back in seven of his 14 games. So, it's not surprising at all to see the veteran go in the fourth or fifth round of drafts. Nevertheless, fantasy managers should not be targeting Mixon at this point.

For starters, he is entering his age-29 season. This is the prime time when running backs start to see their production decline on the field. Some notable running backs who showed signs of decline in their age-29 season include Shaun Alexander, Chris Johnson, Arian Foster, and Marshawn Lynch. While there are outliers, fantasy managers should be worried about Mixon in 2025.

The Texans running back started to slow down toward the end of last year, and there are huge question marks surrounding this Houston offensive line after the team traded away two starters (Laremy Tunsil and Kenyon Green) this offseason. As a result, Mixon is not set up well to succeed this season.

The Texans also added veteran Nick Chubb just a few weeks ago to a one-year contract. Chubb should be involved in some capacity in this offense and could take away some opportunities from Mixon this season.

Nick Chubb and Joe Mixon 😳

Where does this backfield rank in the NFL? pic.twitter.com/kZpL2DyEPY

— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) June 9, 2025

All that is going to make it hard to trust Mixon on a week-to-week basis in fantasy. He already ranked 30th among all running backs in yards per touch last year, and he's getting up there in age. His efficiency on the ground could decline even further, considering the Texans didn't focus much on upgrading that offensive line in the 2025 NFL Draft.

TE Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions

Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta got off to a slow start last season before finishing the year on a high note. LaPorta averaged just eight PPR fantasy points in his first eight contests from Week 1 to Week 9. He then averaged 13.8 PPR fantasy points in his final eight games, which included seven games of at least 10 PPR fantasy points during this span. 

That end-of-season stretch has fantasy managers confident in the Lions tight end entering the 2025-26 campaign. He has a current 51.3 ADP on Sleeper, which is the fourth highest among all tight ends in drafts. Only Brock Bowers (13.0), Trey McBride (23.8), and George Kittle (40.4) have a higher ADP than LaPorta this year. 

That's too rich a price to pay for a tight end who only averaged 10.9 PPR fantasy points last year and lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson in the offseason. There are also many mouths to feed in this Detroit offense. Amon-Ra St. Brown will likely catch over 110 passes again, Jameson Williams is coming off a breakout campaign, and Jahmyr Gibbs should continue to be involved in the passing game.

First @NFL TD for @Samlaporta!#ATLvsDET |📺 FOX pic.twitter.com/lfDQZsKMZ8

— Detroit Lions (@Lions) September 24, 2023

Given that LaPorta saw his target share drop from 21.7% (TE5) to 16.6% (TE15) in 2024, fantasy managers should be out on his Round 5 price. Why take the Lions tight end this early in drafts when you can take Smith (77.8 ADP), Evan Engram (93.7 ADP), or David Njoku (99.8 ADP) three to five rounds later?

LaPorta just isn't a value pick at this point in drafts and is too risky a selection coming off a down year. The 24-year-old will probably still be a solid TE1 option throughout the year, but his upside might be capped without Johnson calling the plays. 

QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes continues to go early in drafts. Although his ADP has fallen a bit from years prior, Mahomes is still going in the top 60 in most leagues. After all, he is the best quarterback in the league, so it makes sense why fantasy managers want to get their hands on him.

Still, that top-60 ADP is too high for a quarterback who has been more of a QB2 than a QB1 in fantasy over the past two years. Mahomes finished as the overall QB8 in 2023 and landed outside the top 12 at the quarterback position in seven of his final nine games that season. Then, he wound up finishing as the QB11 last season. 

It was not a great fantasy campaign for Mahomes in 2024. He only averaged 18.4 fantasy points per game and finished outside the top 12 at the quarterback position in 10 of his 16 games. Yet, we're still drafting him like he is a bona fide top-5 fantasy quarterback. Those days of Mahomes finishing as a top-5 QB might be over. 

The Chiefs haven't needed to rely on him in recent years, and his limited rushing hurts his fantasy ceiling. Mahomes has rushed for under 400 yards in each of his eight NFL seasons. As a result, he is a strong pass in the fifth or sixth round of 2025 fantasy football drafts.

It's hard to take a quarterback in the first few rounds who has posted subpar numbers in each of the past two seasons. He has thrown for under 4,200 yards and 28 touchdowns in back-to-back years for the first time in his career. If you don't land one of the top quarterbacks this year (Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, or Jalen Hurts), it's better to wait for one in the later rounds. 

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