The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Who to Consider Dropping for Fantasy Baseball (Week 11)

June 9, 2025

The Cut List for Week 11 of 2025. Jamie analyzes potential fantasy baseball busts, overvalued players, and injured players who you may want to consider dropping.

Welcome back to The Cut List as we head into Week 11 of the 2025 season. For every add, there is usually also a drop. For those unfamiliar, this is our weekly article examining players whom fantasy managers might consider cutting from their teams and struggling players who warrant a closer look.

We'll examine players worthy of a drop, those worth monitoring for potential replacements, and individuals on the hot seat who are worth holding onto... for now. Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone.

As the season rolls on, there will be stronger cases to drop underperforming players. If there's ever someone you want me to take a look at, drop their name on Reddit, the RotoBaller Discord chat rooms, or reach out to me on X (@Baseball_Jimbo). Maybe you'll see them included next week. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Brandon Pfaadt - SP, Arinzona Diamondbacks - 70% rostered

Pfaadt came into 2025 with renewed optimism from many fantasy managers. Despite his 4.71 ERA last year, people were buoyed by Pfaadt's 3.58 xFIP and 3.65 SIERA. That optimism seemed justified after the first month of the season. Pfaadt ended April with a 2.78 ERA from his six starts.

Since then, things have gone downhill. Pfaadt currently has a 7-4 W-L record, 5.51 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and 51 Ks (65.1 IP). He ended May by allowing eight earned runs without registering an out against the Nationals, which didn't help his numbers.

It wasn't a coincidence that the Nationals didn't start a single right-handed hitter (RHH) against Pfaadt last Saturday. That was his kryptonite last season. In 2024, lefties hit .294/.339/.472 against Pfaadt, while righties hit .224/.264/.371. Those splits were a red flag for many coming into 2025.

Pfaadt appeared to have sussed out LHH to start this year. His changeup helped neutralize lefties. Pfaadt's curveball was hammered by LHH in April (.308 xBA and .785 xSLG), but he threw it less in May. Pfaadt's fastball was the big concern.

In May, Pfaadt's fastball had a .448 xBA (expected batting average) and .850 xSLG against LHH. While his changeup was solid (.250 SLG), he was getting good fortune. Pfaadt's changeup had a .612 xSLG against LHH in May. We can see the xSLG against his arsenal below.

Preseason concerns about Pfaadt's struggles against left-handed hitters look justified. Given that this has been an ongoing struggle for Pfaadt since debuting in the Majors, and we haven't seen anything to suggest it'll change, it's difficult to put any trust in Pfaadt right now.

Verdict: We've now seen Pfaadt struggle to get out lefties consistently for 18 months. Other than a handful of starts in April, Pfaadt has continued to struggle, and we saw how bad things can get against the Nationals last week. Pfaadt isn't someone I'd want to roster in anything but deep leagues. 

Mark Vientos - 3B, New York Mets - 64% rostered

Vientos has been a bone of contention throughout 2025. People witnessed what the Mets' third baseman is capable of last year. The problem is, we've seen none of that this year. In 53 games, Vientos has a .230/.298/.380 slash line with six home runs, 21 RBI, 22 runs, and no stolen bases.

Earlier this week, Vientos landed on the injured list (IL) with a hamstring strain. The good news is that it's not too serious, and Vientos could return by the end of this month. How many fantasy rosters he will be on when he returns remains to be seen.

Carlos Mendoza says Mark Vientos has a low-grade hamstring and will receive treatment for 10-14 days until he's symptom free pic.twitter.com/PI5LCwzxHP

— SNY (@SNYtv) June 5, 2025

Even without hindsight, Vientos was largely drafted too early this year. His 27 homers in 111 games last year had people hoping we would see Pete Alonso-type numbers in 2025. Vientos' 2024 numbers look to be more of a mirage than what we should expect from him.

If we want to use last year's numbers to explain why Vientos was such a great option in 2025, we shouldn't dismiss 2023. Then, Vientos hit nine homers in 65 games, with a .211/.253/.367 slash line. The bigger sample we're getting with Vientos is starting to make 2024 look like an outlier.

The reality seems to lie somewhere in between. Vientos is a better hitter than we've seen this year. But he's not as good as the numbers he put up in 2024. The problem is, until he comes close to replicating 2024, Vientos is barely rosterable in fantasy.

When Vientos does return, he may be limited to just DH (designated hitter) duties. Brett Baty has been one of the best defensive third basemen this year, while Vientos has been one of the worst. Without a hot bat, Vientos is also in danger of losing some at-bats.

Verdict: I generally don't drop players on the IL. You can stick them on there and forget about them. However, I wouldn't think twice about sacrificing Vientos if you don't have a spare IL spot. Other than deeper leagues, I'd plan to move on from Vientos anyway.

Hold For Now

Dylan Cease - SP, San Diego Padres - 98% rostered

Although very few people are dropping Cease, many have asked what is wrong with him. There has been some concern, bordering on panic, with Cease this year. That's understandable given he has a 1-5 W-L record, 4.72 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and 85 Ks from 13 starts (68.2 IP).

However, I'm here to tell you that Cease has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball. Cease's underlying numbers aren't too different from previous seasons when he's been a borderline fantasy ace. The table below highlights some of these numbers since 2021.

Multiple things stand out from this. One is of durability. No pitcher has started more games (143) than Cease over the last five seasons. It should come as no surprise that he tallied the most strikeouts (976) at that time. Only 10 pitchers have more strikeouts than Cease this year.

Cease's 3.21 xFIP and 3.23 SIERA are both the lowest he's had in a season. There's no way Cease should have his highest ERA since his 2019 debut. It's unlikely that it sustains. I'm not concerned that we end up seeing a 2023-type season from Cease this year.

That's not to say there aren't some minor concerns. Cease has an 11.0% Barrel% against him, which ranks in the 18th percentile. His fastball has a .284 xBA and .498 xSLG against it. In 2021, Cease's fastball had a .274 xBA and .500 xSLG against it. That's where I'm leaning.

I don't expect Cy Young-calibre numbers from Cease over the remainder of 2025. But I'd be surprised if his ERA doesn't drop below 4.00 by the end of the season. With 200+ strikeouts a certainty if he stays healthy, Cease is a buy-low candidate more so than a potential drop in even shallow leagues.

Tyler Mahle - SP, Texas Rangers - 84% rostered

Given his numbers so far, it may seem odd to even include Mahle. After 13 starts, Mahle has a 5-3 W-L record, 2.02 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 53 Ks (71.1 IP). There has been some concern among his fantasy managers recently, which looks like it's justified.

Mahle didn't allow more than two earned runs in his first 10 starts of the season. He's allowed three or more earned runs in two of his last three starts. Mahle did have a six-inning shutout performance in between those two starts.

That isn't enough to warrant Mahle being included in The Cut List. If we dig a little deeper, we'll see why. Mahle currently has a 4.19 xFIP and 4.48 SIERA. Along with his .235 BABIP, Mahle's almost a lock to see regression over the remainder of the year.

To put things into perspective, Mahle's 2.02 ERA is seventh-best among the 80 qualified starting pitchers. His xFIP ranks 53rd, and SIERA ranks 66th.  That's not to say his numbers will fall off a cliff.

Mahle isn't a big strikeout guy. His 18.8% K% ranks in the 29th percentile. But what he does do is limit hard contact. Mahle's 37.4% Hard-Hit% ranks in the 70th percentile, but we have seen that increase in recent weeks. In his last six starts, Mahle has a 41.7% Hard-Hit%.

If Cease is a buy-low candidate, Mahle is someone I'd sell-high on. The lack of strikeouts will limit any potential return for Mahle. If you can't get a solid return, holding him makes sense. Just be warned that regression is due. When it hits, Mahle could find himself only as a deeper league option.

On the Hot Seat

Royce Lewis - 3B, Minnesota Twins - 53% rostered

I've resisted including Lewis in The Cut List, given he didn't make his season debut until May 6. A hamstring injury during Spring Training meant Lewis missed the first month of the season, and the injured list is something Lewis is all too familiar with.

Since making his MLB debut in May 2022, Lewis has had seven different IL stints and played just 178 games in the Majors. If you were frustrated that Lewis started the season on the IL, you shouldn't have drafted him. Sadly, injuries are all too commonplace for Lewis.

When healthy, Lewis has flashed immense talent. In 2023, he hit .309/.372/.548 with 15 homers in 58 games. Last year, Lewis only had a .233/.295/.452 slash line, but still hit 16 homers in 82 games. While injuries are disappointing in the short term, regular injuries will have a longer-term impact.

It's difficult to know if Lewis can or will ever be 100% healthy. What we do know is that Lewis hasn't gotten going since returning to the diamond. After 26 games, Lewis has one homer, seven RBI, seven runs, no steals, and a .165/.253/.247 slash line.

It's still too early to pass judgment on Lewis truly. A 26-game sample is still small enough that significant anomalies will be present. Lewis's .245 xBA and .441 xSLG are testament to that. While neither is outstanding, they are considerably better than his actual numbers.

On Friday, Lewis went 3-for-3 with a walk and a double. That sort of performance was coming. The reason I say that is if we look at Lewis' rolling Hard-Hit% and fly ball rate (FB%), things have been trending in the right direction.

If we look a little deeper, we will find that Lewis's quality of contact numbers has been better than anything he's done before. Entering 2025, Lewis had a career 11.0% Barrel% and 39.3% Hard-Hit% (according to Statcast). This year, Lewis has an 11.8% Barrel% and 42.6% Hard-Hit%.

If we were looking at Lewis in late April and he was putting up similar numbers, we would be preaching patience. The fact that Lewis didn't play in April means he's behind where he needs to be. His hamstring injury occurred in mid-March, so Lewis didn't have a full spring either.

Injuries are part of his profile. While Lewis is healthy enough to play, I'd still be rolling him out in my lineups. Now that he has a few weeks of MLB playing time under his belt this year, we should start seeing an improvement in his numbers. We know what Lewis is capable of in small periods.

If things stop trending upwards and Lewis still has a sub-.200 batting average by late June, I'll be reconsidering things. For now, I'd hang on to Lewis, hope he can stay healthy, and then be productive. The production is more likely than the health.

Reader Requests

As always, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone you want to include on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread or in the RotoBaller Discord chat rooms. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on X, and we'll endeavor to cover some requests each week.

Tyler Soderstrom - 1B/OF, Oakland Athletics - 87% rostered

Soderstrom had himself quite a day on Thursday. He went 2-for-5 with both hits clearing the fences as he drove in six runs. If we look back since last Friday, Soderstrom has gone 7-for-28. Four of the seven hits were homers. Two of the other three hits were a double and a triple.

Yesterday, Soderstrom hit his first single since May 24. He also walked four times and now has a very solid 10.0% BB% (67th percentile). The last three games have been Soderstrom in a nutshell. Thursday was also Soderstrom's fourth multi-homer game of the year.

His fantasy managers will know that he's streaky and that his home runs come in bunches. While that makes it difficult to roster Soderstrom, he should also remind us to zoom out and look at a player's season in its entirety.

Over this year, Soderstrom has a .256/.341/.480 slash line, 14 homers, 43 RBI, 35 runs, and three steals. He has a 162-game pace of 34 home runs, and it shouldn't be a surprise if Soderstrom reaches that. That alone makes him worthwhile rostering for the remainder of the season.

You will have to endure stretches where Soderstrom puts up a sub-.200 batting average over two or more weeks. Plus a lack of home runs and a lot of strikeouts. But that will ultimately be offset by the hot streaks. Soderstrom is set to end the season as a top-12 first baseman.

Luis Robert Jr. - OF, Chicago White Sox - 76% rostered

After weeks of relenting with Robert, it's time to include him in The Cut List. When asked what people should do with him, the answer has been the same for weeks: If you need steals, hold him. His numbers will improve. He will likely be traded. But other than steals, he holds little value.

After 57 games, Robert has five homers, 23 RBI, 24 runs, and 21 steals. His .181/.270/.286 slash line is what fantasy managers are most frustrated about. The good news is that Robert Jr. has been a bit unlucky. If we look at his Statcast Profile, we'll see his expected numbers are better than his actual ones.

As we can see, not by much. But 21 steals with a .230 batting average would be much more palatable. What else is interesting is Robert's bat speed compared to some of his quality of contact metrics.

I won't pretend to be a hitting expert, but someone with elite bat speed should be hitting the ball harder. Robert Jr. should have a higher average exit velocity and a higher Hard-Hit%. It seems like a tweak to his swing is needed, but that will only come if he's traded.

The reality is, not many teams are going to be very keen to trade much away for an outfielder with a sub-.300 slugging percentage. Even if he is on pace for ~55 stolen bases, I do believe Robert ends the season on a different roster. Whether that helps his production in 2025 is up for debate.

As mentioned, Robert is still worthwhile rostering if you need the steals, and you can stomach the batting average. While the batting average should improve, there isn't much left with his profile unless he's traded. Even then, Robert might only offer stolen bases for fantasy teams.

Wilyer Abreu - OF, Boston Red Sox - 73% rostered

Abreu went a little under the radar heading into 2025. If we look at last year's number, he did a bit of everything without having a standout strength. In 2024, Abreu hit .253/.322/.459 with 15 homers, 58 RBI, 59 runs, and eight steals (132 games). It's a similar story this year, but with more power.

After 63 games, Abreu is hitting .248/.323/.476 with 13 homers, 32 RBI, 28 runs, and four steals. That's good enough to be the 34th-ranked outfielder (according to Yahoo!) and very much rosterable. The concern among fantasy managers has been the decline in his batting average since the end of April.

In April, Abreu hit .295/.417/.547. Since May 1, Abreu has been hitting .207/.231/.414. Fantasy managers are concerned that Abreu has regressed to the norm and isn't worth rostering. The truth lies somewhere in the middle, and that's what his current slash line represents.

His numbers are comparable to last year's, while Abreu's .266 xBA isn't too far off his actual batting average. With a .561 xSLG, there might be more power coming. Abreu's expected numbers have improved in recent weeks. Seven of his 13 home runs have come since May 1.

Abreu's batting average drop has understandably caused some alarm bells to ring. He's still been hitting homers, and Abreu's expected numbers suggest he's been unlucky recently. The downside is, Abreu doesn't start against left-handed pitchers (LHP).

Abreu has only had 30 plate appearances against LHP this year. As a career .186/.262/.268 hitter against lefties, that's not a bad thing. Abreu is still worth rostering, especially in daily lineup leagues. We should start to see Abreu's batting average at least stabilize throughout the summer months.

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