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Andy looks at five sneaky fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups for starting pitchers in Week 9 (2025) on hot streaks, and sees if they can sustain their success.
As we approach the end of the second month of the fantasy baseball season, we have seen several under-the-radar starting pitchers provide elite fantasy value. Currently, both Hunter Brown and Nathan Eovaldi, who were taken outside of the top 100 picks, have been the fourth- and sixth-most-valuable pitchers in standard 5x5 leagues, respectively.
In this piece, we will take a look at five pitchers who are widely available in all formats and have begun to flash high upside. While they may not be SP1s/SP2s, they could be valuable back-end starters going forward.
Who should fantasy managers be targeting this week? Let's dive in!
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Nick Martinez, Cincinnati Reds
38% Rostered
The 34-year-old enjoyed a strong campaign in 2024 and has continued to impress in 2025. Last season, Martinez posted a career-best 3.10 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP across 142 1/3 innings. He tallied 116 punchouts and showed elite command, allowing just 18 walks.
Entering draft season, Martinez was often referred to as a late-round option to boost your WHIP, and he continues to hold that title. Through 64 2/3 innings, the right-hander has posted a strong 1.11 WHIP (12th best in the NL) with a 3.48 ERA. He has struck out batters at a low 17.6% rate (22nd percentile) but has continued to show strong command, allowing walks at an elite 5.1% rate.
Sitting at just under the 40% rostership mark, should fantasy managers place a hefty FAAB bid on the 34-year-old?
Martinez deploys four pitches more than 15% of the time, but relies on his fastball the most, sitting at a 22.6% usage rate. In comparison to last season, this pitch has generated a nearly identical wOBA (.277 wOBA, .268 wOBA) but has seen the whiff rate drop slightly, by six percentage points (21.2% - 15.0% whiff rate).
In addition, his changeup (second-most-used pitch) has remained a strong putaway pitch, generating an elite .218 xwOBA (.200 xwOBA in 2024).
Nick Martinez, Filthy Changeups. 😷 pic.twitter.com/xCNEJbyySP
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 20, 2024
In general, Martinez has generated an elite 5.6% barrel rate and a 35.0% hard-hit rate, which places him in the 80th and 79th percentile, respectively.
While he is not a target for strikeouts, he should remain a strong option to boost your ratios. Over his last six outings, Martinez has logged 38 innings to the tune of a 2.13 ERA and a stellar 0.92 WHIP.
Grant Holmes, Atlanta Braves
35% Rostered
Grant Holmes made his MLB debut last season and was deployed primarily out of the bullpen, logging 68 1/3 innings to the tune of a 3.56 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP. He appeared in 26 games and started just seven of them. However, with Spencer Strider (elbow) missing the start of the campaign, Holmes was given a spot in the rotation to open the 2025 campaign.
In April (and two starts in March), Holmes showed potential at times but was hard to trust, as he posted a 4.50 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP. During this stretch, Holmes logged 28 innings and allowed five long balls and posted an underwhelming 26:17 K:BB.
However, since May 1, the right-hander has begun to turn the corner and has begun to establish himself as a viable fantasy target. Over his last 30 2/3 innings (five starts), Holmes has posted a much-improved 2.93 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP. This month, Holmes struck out 29 batters and served up just nine free passes.
While he still sits in the 24th percentile in walk rate, seeing him show gradual improvement is a promising sign, suggesting he is beginning to take the next step in his development.
Holmes relies primarily on two pitches, his fastball and slider (combined 71.7% usage rate). His fastball has not been successful, generating a high .300 xBA and a .619 xSLG. His slider is also due for some regression, as its .229 xBA and .372 xSLG are significantly higher than the .149 BA and .207 SLG it currently holds.
Seeing Holmes improve his control is positive, but his underwhelming metrics do not make him a must-start option. He is worth rostering in 12-team leagues but should only be deployed in favorable matchups.
Grant Holmes, 2Ks in the 1st. pic.twitter.com/8Ud2Wh2GoO
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 12, 2025
Zack Littell, Tampa Bay Rays
15% Rostered
Zack Littell is one of the least-rostered players on this list. Similar to Holmes, Littell had a disappointing start to the season, which likely resulted in many fantasy managers cutting ties with the southpaw. During his first 34 innings, Littell posted a high 5.03 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP. During this stint, he struck out just 22 batters and allowed eight free passes.
However, since May 1, Littell has logged 31 2/3 innings to the tune of a 2.84 ERA with an impressive 0.92 WHIP. While his strikeout numbers have remained pedestrian (20 punchouts in this stretch), he has shown elite command, allowing just two total walks in the month.
One major change Littell has implemented is increasing the usage of his fastball. In April, his fastball was his third-most-used pitch, but in May, he has deployed it 29.6% of the time, just under one point less than his primary slider (30.7%). In May, his fastball has generated a strong .275 xwOBA and has helped balance his slider and split-finger.
While he has found some short-term success, it is not sustainable. Currently, Littell sits in the 22nd and 20th percentile in xERA and xBA, respectively, and has allowed barrels at a high 13.7% rate.
Don't let Littell's impressive May fool you. His primary pitch, his slider, has still generated a hefty .632 xSLG, and his general metrics also suggest he is due for massive regression in June.
Edward Cabrera, Miami Marlins
5% Rostered
Edward Cabrera has shown incredible upside at times, but he has never been able to sustain it. Through eight starts this season, Cabrera has tallied at least seven punchouts three times, but has fallen under the five-punchout mark three times as well.
In his most recent outing, Cabrera raised eyebrows, tallying a season-high 10 punchouts across 5 2/3 shutout innings. In this outing, Cabrera allowed just three hits and two walks. Since May 1 (four starts), Cabrera has provided solid fantasy value, posting a 2.53 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP. During this stretch, the right-hander has struck out 23 batters in 21 1/3 innings while allowing just five walks.
During his first 18 2/3 innings, Cabrera allowed a hefty 11 walks with a 7.23 ERA. Is Cabrera finally turning the corner?
In May, Cabrera saw his sinker usage jump nearly 11 percentage points compared to April. This month, his sinker has become his most-used pitch, even though it has not found much success. This pitch has generated a high .462 xSLG with a low 4.5% putaway rate. However, this pitch has allowed his changeup and curveball to find more success, especially from a whiff perspective.
This month, his curveball has generated an impressive 45.5% whiff rate, a significant jump from the 28.6% whiff rate it posted in April. His changeup has found similar success, posting an elite 30.3% whiff rate, a 10-point jump from April. His slider has remained his fourth-most-used pitch but has been very effective when used, generating a massive 57.1% whiff rate with a 47.1% putaway rate.
While fantasy managers should not run to the waiver wire to grab Cabrera, if he can continue to improve his sinker while mixing his strong secondary options, he could become an intriguing streaming option going forward.
Edward Cabrera, Disgusting 95mph Changeup. 🤮 pic.twitter.com/jU3z4M0nyj
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 17, 2025
Shane Smith, Chicago White Sox
26% Rostered
The final pitcher we will take a look at in this piece is White Sox rookie Shane Smith. Smith has remained quite under-rostered through the early part of the campaign, primarily due to pitching on one of the worst teams in the sport.
Through his first 53 1/3 MLB innings, Smith has posted an impressive 2.36 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP. He has struck out 49 batters and allowed walks at a solid 8.1% walk rate (53rd percentile). He took a slight step back on Wednesday, as he tossed just 3 2/3 innings with three runs, two hits, and five walks.
Smith has relied primarily on three pitches: his fastball, changeup, and slider, which he has deployed in total 84.4% of the time.
His fastball has been very impressive, generating a strong .232 xBA with a .364 xSLG. These numbers are slightly higher than the .182 BA and .247 SLG it currently holds, but fantasy managers should not expect much regression there.
His changeup has been his primary whiff pitch, generating them at a strong 37.5% rate. Similar to the fastball, Smith should see some regression with this pitch as well, as the .295 xwOBA is just over 100 points higher than the .193 wOBA it has held. However, his slider is the opposite and should take a light step forward, given the elite .286 xwOBA it carries.
Through his first 10 starts, Smith has only allowed three or more runs twice. Overall, he sits just above the average marks (60th and 58th percentiles) in xERA and xBA, which suggests he should remain a viable SP4/SP5 going forward. He has done well in limiting hard contact (evident in his 82nd percentile barrel rate) and has continued to show solid strikeout upside.
If needing a back-end starter, fantasy managers should target Smith in standard formats.
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