Are You For Real? Surprising Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Starts From Chris Paddack, Noah Cameron, Jack Kochanowicz

May 22, 2025

Elliott looks at pitchers with surprising starts recently. These SPs could emerge as fantasy baseball waiver wire targets for Week 8 in 2025, or just mirages.

Welcome back to the "Are You For Real?" series as we dive into Week 8 of the 2025 fantasy baseball season. For those who are not familiar, this is a weekly column where we take a look at starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legitimate or just smoke and mirrors.

Rivalry weekend was as advertised, and we have plenty of exciting major league action to dissect. This week, we'll take a look at three interesting AL arms who have been pitching well as of late. First, we'll deep dive into Chris Paddack's strong start in Baltimore. Then, we'll look at Noah Cameron's strong second start for Kansas City. We'll finish it off with a breakdown of the Angels' Jack Kochanowicz.

Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo! and are accurate as of May 19.

Chris Paddack, Minnesota Twins – 15% Rostered

2025 Stats (prior to this start): 39.2 IP, 4.76 ERA, 5.08 FIP, 8.2% K-BB%

5/15 @ BAL: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K

Paddack was excellent on Thursday, blanking those struggling O’s over seven innings en route to his second straight victory. Paddack was tagged for nine earned runs in his first outing of the year, but has rebounded nicely since then. In his last eight starts (excluding the first), he’s had a 2.49 ERA, 3.83 FIP, and 10.4% K-BB%.

Is this the real Chris Paddack? What can we expect from the right-hander going forward?

Paddack was originally an eighth-round pick by the Marlins back in 2015, who then traded him to San Diego, where he became a big deal prospect. Scouts were excited about Paddack’s changeup and fastball velocity, and thought he had the makings of a frontline starter. Injuries and underperformance have plagued Paddack throughout his big league career, and he’s never been able to recapture his 2019 success, where Paddack pitched to a 3.33 ERA in 140 2/3 innings.

Paddack works with a four-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, changeup, curveball, and slider. A traditional repertoire indeed, but can Paddack wield it to further success? Let’s start with the changeup, which was Paddack’s money pitch as a prospect and with San Diego.

Paddack threw his changeup 28% of the time in this start, which is slightly higher than his season mark of 23.2%.

The changeup was on in this one, as Paddack got six of his 12 whiffs with the pitch against Baltimore, good for a 40% whiff rate. Overall, batters have really struggled against Paddack’s changeup this season. Opponents are hitting just .189 with a .358 SLG and .263 wOBA against the pitch thus far. Here’s an example of the pitch from this start.

Chris Paddack, Dirty 84mph Changeup. 👌 pic.twitter.com/3wEiMCMPaZ

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 15, 2025

That was a perfectly executed pitch, and shows just how good the changeup can be when it’s on. Paddack is best at getting hitters to chase his change, with a 40.8% o-swing rate this season with the pitch. The expected stats suggest that Paddack has overperformed with his changeup to a degree, and he does have a .175 BABIP against the pitch thus far.

He should experience some regression with this pitch, but I’m not too scared away by a .232 xBA. What does concern me is the .448 xSLG off the changeup. Home runs have long been an issue for Paddack, and it doesn’t seem to be improving.

Paddack has already allowed three home runs off his changeup and seven home runs in nine starts overall, good for a 1.35 HR/9 rate. That number aligns with Paddack’s career 1.42 HR/9, and his 10.8% HR/FB ratio suggests that Paddack has not been abnormally unlucky with fly-balls either. In fact, Paddack seems to have gotten a little fortunate in this department following his first start.

He surrendered three home runs in his first start, and since then, Paddack has an uncharacteristically low 0.8 HR/9 and 7% HR/FB ratio, despite a 45% fly-ball rate. Paddack has always had fly-ball tendencies and has a 16.1 average launch angle against this season. It’s not the worst case of Gopheritis I’ve ever seen, but Paddack certainly has a mild form of the affliction and will likely struggle with homers all season to some degree.

We’ve reviewed Paddack’s best pitch, the changeup, but his most-used pitch is the four-seam fastball. Paddack has thrown the pitch 52.6% of the time this season and 48% of the time against Baltimore. A 93.7 mph offering, Paddack’s fastball is characterized by average spin, though it has slightly above-average vertical break, giving the pitch more perceived rise than a typical fastball.

That helps explain why Paddack has fly-ball tendencies, because hitters tend to swing under the pitch and send it in the air. Batters have also struggled against Paddack’s four-seamer this season, hitting just .221 with a .302 SLG and .278 wOBA. Like with the changeup, the expected numbers are less rosy. He has a .267 xBA, .447 xSLG, and .344 xwOBA against his fastball this season.

Paddack’s fastball performance has been aided by a .243 BABIP and 6.3% HR/FB ratio against.

For context, Paddack has a career .309 BABIP and a 15% HR/FB ratio with his four-seamer. Both the fastball and changeup—his two primary pitches—seem to be overperforming similarly. Overall, Paddack has been rather lucky despite the 4.05 ERA. Since his first start, Paddack has a .226 BABIP and 7% HR/FB ratio against, and a 79.2% LOB rate.

Even during his hot stretch, he only has a 6.4 K/9 and a 2.4 K/BB ratio. There’s not a ton of upside here, and no one wants to be left holding the bag when the other shoe drops on Paddack.

Verdict:

Paddack has been incredible since getting shellacked in his first outing, but it’s mostly a fake-out. Paddack won’t be able to sustain his .226 BABIP against the 79.2% LOB rate. His changeup got a healthy amount of whiffs in this start, but he only has a 24.7% whiff rate with the pitch overall and doesn’t have a ton of strikeout upside.

A 20% strikeout rate would be a dream from Paddack at this point. He does pitch for a (seemingly) good team and may have some win potential, but Paddack isn’t more than a low strikeout streamer.

Noah Cameron, Kansas City Royals – 12% Rostered

2025 Stats (AAA): 32.2 IP, 3.31 ERA, 4.22 FIP, 18.8% K-BB%

5/17 vs. STL: 6 1/3 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 3 K

Cameron returned to the majors spectacularly on Saturday, holding the Cardinals to just one run over six and a third innings. Cameron was the tough-luck loser in this one, but the 25-year-old southpaw seems to have earned himself a spot in Kansas City’s rotation while Seth Lugo (finger) and Cole Ragans (groin) are on the injured list.

Is there any fantasy value to be had with Cameron, or is he best left on waivers?

Originally a seventh-round draft pick by Kansas City back in 2021, Cameron wasn’t a big prospect on a national level. Still, he was viewed as a future starter in the Royals’ farm system and was ranked as the Royals’ fifth-best prospect heading into 2025 by MLB Pipeline. Poor velocity held him back in scouts’ eyes, but Cameron flashed brilliance in the minor leagues at times.

In fact, his all-time minor league K/9 is a robust 11.3.

Cameron works with a five-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, slider, changeup, curveball, and cutter. He used a little of everything in this start, throwing each pitch at least 10% of the time. Cameron’s most revered pitch would have to be the changeup, which he used 19% of the time against St. Louis on Saturday.

Cameron’s changeup, which is 80.6 mph, is a low-spin pitch that generated plenty of whiffs in the minor leagues.

It looks nasty, but Cameron only earned one whiff with his changeup at this start. That’s right, he got one measly whiff on 15 pitches. Unfortunately, Cameron’s strikeout prowess hasn’t seemed to follow him to the majors yet. Not only did his changeup underperform, but he also only got two whiffs with his slider and zero with his fastball in this start.

Cameron was a strikeout machine in the minors, so what gives?

Something that may be holding Cameron back is his poor velocity. He averaged just 90.5 mph with his four-seamer in this start, though he averaged 92.1 mph in his previous MLB start against Tampa Bay on April 30, 2025. He’s been scouted to throw around 92, so perhaps Saturday was a blip in terms of velocity. Even at 92 mph, his fastball leaves something to be desired, as opponents have a .291 xBA off the pitch this season.

Overall, Cameron’s fastball is a below-average pitch that could be a liability for him in the majors. He’s issued too many walks at times in the minors, which could force an overreliance on the fastball if he can’t find the zone with his other pitches, which could lead to more hard-hit balls against.

That’s a scary proposition, because batters are not missing his fastball. His four-seam fastball has literally generated zero whiffs in two starts. That’s right, he has a 0.0% swinging-strike rate. It’s only two starts, but still disconcerting nonetheless.

Cameron recently introduced his slider, an 83.6 mph offering that could really round out his arsenal. It’s got a relatively high spin rate at 2499 RPM, and with plus vertical movement, the pitch dies low and away from hitters.

Noah Cameron, Dirty 85mph Slider. 😨 pic.twitter.com/U2A8crkjPA

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 1, 2025

Cameron only got two whiffs with the pitch in this start, but he got four in his previous outing and has a respectable 35.3% whiff rate with the pitch on the year. He’s also leaned heavily on the pitch in his two starts, throwing it 23.1% of the time, second only to his fastball in usage.

It would be nice to see Cameron incorporate his secondary skills even more, as his below-average fastball could lead to some poor outcomes.

One area where we could see some improvement for Cameron is with walks. He had a bloated 9.8% walk rate in the minors before promotion, and has a 10.9% rate in two MLB starts. Cameron has a 2.7 BB/9 in the minors all time and was noted for his plus command as a prospect, so I do think his current walk rate doesn’t reflect his actual skill in limiting walks.

We need to see him actually limit walks in a major league start, but the track record and scouting reports suggest that he can do it. I don’t expect him to have a walk rate this high or a strikeout rate this low in the long term. It’ll have to improve, as his current 2.2% K-BB% is untenable for a major league starter.

Verdict:

Cameron has some impressive minor league numbers,  including an 11.3 K/9 in the minor leagues all time. His deep five-pitch arsenal is headlined by an 80 mph changeup that earned plenty of whiffs in the minors, but hasn’t had the same success in the majors yet. He also throws what appears to be a solid slider and rounds it out with a workable curveball and cutter.

It’s really the fastball that could cause problems for Cameron.

He averaged just 90.5 mph with his heater in this start and has earned exactly zero whiffs in two starts with the pitch. This could make it hard for him to replicate his minor league strikeout numbers, and I don’t think we can expect him to take some giant leap based solely on those numbers.

If you’re in a deeper league, I think Cameron is worth a speculative add, but for standard leagues, I’d keep him on the wire until he shows us more.

Jack Kochanowicz, Los Angeles Angels – 1% Rostered

2025 Stats (prior to this start): 43 IP, 5.23 ERA, 5.55 FIP, 3.2% K-BB%

5/16 @ LAD: 6 2/3 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 5 K

Kochanowicz was excellent on Friday, limiting the mighty Dodgers to just one run over six 2/3 innings while picking up his second straight win.

The quality of opposition makes this start even more impressive for Kochanowicz, as the Dodgers have a league-leading 129 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season, along with a 151 wRC+ as a team over the past 14 days. Kochanowicz ran into a buzzsaw and found the kill switch, but can we trust him on our fantasy teams?

Originally a third-round pick by the Angels back in 2019, Kochanowicz wasn’t much of a prospect coming up. He’s struggled to find consistent results in both the major and minor leagues, and thus hasn’t been on fantasy radars at all the past two seasons. Kochanowicz works with a five-pitch mix consisting of a sinker, changeup, four-seam fastball, sweeper, and slider.

Kochanowicz may have five options to choose from, but he’s a sinkerball pitcher through and through. In 2024, he threw his sinker a whopping 72.4% of the time. That number has dipped to 46.2% this season, but it’s still his most-used pitch and the crux of his approach on the mound. Averaging 95.5 mph with the pitch, Kochanowicz’s sinker has extreme vertical drop, making it an outstanding ground-ball pitch.

Have a look at his 2025 movement profile, paying attention to the sinker (orange).

That’s some fastball shape, and it’s no wonder that batters have a -2-degree average launch angle against the pitch this season. Kochanowicz also has a 52.9% ground-ball rate overall and looks to be a plus groundball pitcher thanks to this pitch.

While the sinker may be a worm killer, batters have had no trouble handling the pitch this season either. Yes, he has an impressive ground-ball rate against, but opponents are also hitting .297 off the pitch with a .446 SLG and .357 wOBA.

Expected stats suggest that Kochanowicz has earned these results too, with a .293 xBA, .434 xSLG, and .361 xwOBA against. Perhaps most concerning is the 92.5 average exit velocity off the pitch. Batters are pulverizing the pitch, and Kochanowicz would be an ERA and WHIP liability as a result.

Kochanowicz has modified his approach over his last few starts, incorporating a changeup into his pitch mix. He began throwing it during a 4/29/25 start against Seattle, and has used it 15.3% of the time in his last four starts. Batters are hitting .267 off the pitch, but Kochanowicz has a .123 xBA, .187 xSLG, and .133 xwOBA against the changeup thus far.

A hard change at 89.5 mph, Kochanowicz boasts plus horizontal movement with the pitch, making it especially effective against left-handed batters. It’s also proven to be his best strikeout pitch.

Kochanowicz will likely never be a strikeout pitcher, but he has a 14.3% swinging-strike rate with his changeup this season. He also has an improved strikeout rate over his last four starts, though it was still a pitiful 16.5%. Kochanowicz was always a poor strikeout pitcher; unfortunately, no one pitch will magically change that for him.

Another issue with using Kochanowicz is his poor control. It wasn’t a problem for him last season, but Kochanowicz has a 3.99 BB/9 and a 10.4% walk rate this year. He never had walk rates this high in the minor leagues, so perhaps it’s a result of Kochanowicz tweaking his pitch mix to try and find the right approach. He has issued exactly four walks in three of his last four starts.

Prior to incorporating the changeup, his walk rate was only 7%, so if Kochanowicz figures things out, the walk rate could normalize.

Kochanowicz has also begun using his four-seam fastball more frequently this season to great success. Batters are hitting just .154 with a .308 SLG and .283 wOBA off Kochanowicz’s four-seamer this season. The expected stats suggest that Kochanowicz could sustain these results to some degree. He has a .212 xBA, .426 xSLG, and .341 xwOBA off the pitch this season. I’m skeptical that this pitch can continue to perform well.

Batters are clobbering the ball for a 93.2 mph average exit velocity against, along with an incredible 34-degree average launch angle. Kochanowicz may be a ground-ball, sinker guy at heart, but his four-seamer is a fly-ball pitch. Fly balls are the least likely batted ball type to land for a hit, so having a fly ball approach isn’t the end of the world, but I have two big concerns with Kochanowicz.

One, the .167 BABIP off the four-seamer is wholly unsustainable, and that number will rise over time, causing worse results against the four-seamer. Second, Kochanowicz has allowed a 26.9% line drive rate off his four-seamer this season. When batters aren’t hitting in the air, they’re roping screamers all over the field. Kochanowicz does throw hard enough, but he gives up even more hard contact, which makes him hard to trust.

Verdict:

Kochanowicz is no longer the 1.5-pitch pitcher we saw last year. He has complemented his sinker with a new changeup and increased four-seamer usage. The changeup looks like his best strikeout offering and could be a new weapon to neutralize left-handed hitters. His four-seamer is exceptional at inducing fly-ball outs, and batters are hitting just .154 off the pitch.

Unfortunately, Kochanowicz still seems like a work in progress. The changeup and four-seam usage are the next steps in his evolution, but he’s hardly a finished product at this point, and therefore, I can’t trust him in my lineup. When it comes down to it, Kochanowicz doesn’t generate strikeouts, struggles with walks, and pitches for a last-place team.

That makes him a pass in most redraft leagues.

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