NFL Draft 2025: Bold Predictions And Fearless Forecasts

April 23, 2025

John Johnson's bold predictions for the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft, including predictions for Ashton Jeanty, Jaxson Dart, and Tetairoa McMillan.

The 2025 NFL Draft is closer to today than we think it is. The first day is April 24, and by the end of that day, we'll know whether all the predictions made here are true or if other shocking things happen.

The top of this year's draft class is loaded with intriguing players, and in a weaker quarterback class, there's a lot more uncertainty on how the first 10 picks will go down.

And when teams have high picks but their biggest needs don't align with the top players in the draft as much as they'd like, they tend to make moves that surprise everyone. It's not always easy to predict what they'll be, but it's fun to pontificate on what might happen. So, let's break down some big, fearless forecasts and bold predictions for the 2025 NFL Draft.

New York Jets Draft Jaxson Dart

The majority of laymen, including those in the fantasy football community, aren't nearly as high on Dart as NFL teams are. He's my personal QB1 of the class, and has been for months. While teams seem to view Miami's Cam Ward as the top prospect, that doesn't mean that Dart isn't seen as a player who's worth taking inside the first 10 picks.

The Jets, meanwhile, signed quarterback Justin Fields to a two-year, $40 million contract, but they could plausibly let go of him after one season. If he continues to struggle with getting past his first read, avoiding the many sacks he creates (which then get blamed on the offensive line), and just reading a defense in general, he could even be benched before the season ends.

Jaxson Dart When Blitzed:

➖12 TD’s
➖2 INT’s
➖66.2%

Jaxson Dart Not Blitzed:

➖17 TD’s
➖4 INT’s
➖70.9%

His Turnover Worthy Play Rate When Blitzed (1.1%) AND Not Blitzed (2.8%) were both BETTER than Cam Wards..

..and Jaxson Darts Average Depth of Target was HIGHER (11.9) pic.twitter.com/hqjlnjc79C

— Austin Abbott (@AustinAbbottFF) April 2, 2025

Dart's film, though not perfect, showed massive improvement over his last two seasons. His early years in college were more forgettable, but then again, so were those of star Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels. And Dart is still just 21 years old, so he has plenty of development potential left.

Dart is the most composed under pressure of any quarterback in this year's class, the best decision-maker, an underrated athlete, and has solid arm strength. And he played well with so much less help from his wide receivers. His WR1, Tre Harris, missed much of 2024 due to injury.

🧵3. Jaxson Dart - Ole Miss (71)

Jaxson Dart comes in as my QB3, and the more I watch him, the more I like his potential in the NFL. He ran Lane Kiffin's RPO, play action, spread style offense, which does not have a ton of NFL concepts that are consistently run. With that being… pic.twitter.com/dErP6PN2ho

— Drew Scuilla (@DrewScuilla) April 9, 2025

Dart's toughness is unquestionable, which is something head coach Aaron Glenn would like. And it would be shrewd for the team to have a backup plan in case Fields doesn't work out, because the chances of Fields not working out are pretty high. In my eyes, Dart would enter and be an immediate upgrade over Fields.

Dart would have time to develop and would be a solid starter even if he were put in at midseason. Keeping Fields on the roster to run other packages would give the team's offense an extra dimension that would help it along nicely. I think this is a wise selection for New York to make.

Chicago Bears Trade Up For Ashton Jeanty

While Jeanty has been widely mocked as being taken with the sixth pick by the Las Vegas Raiders, perhaps the Bears are so enamored with him that they're willing to give up significant draft capital. Just like the Detroit Lions spent an early first-round pick on an elite RB prospect in a move that was considered a reach, Bears head coach Ben Johnson could make this bold move.

Ashton Jeanty during his college career had 3,557 yards after contact, which is 2nd all time in PFF’s system.

It’s hard to not consider him if he’s there at #10
pic.twitter.com/z4btUioS4i

— Just Another Year Chicago: Bears (@JAYChi_Bears) April 4, 2025

In Detroit, the Lions ran a committee system, with running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery splitting snaps and workload relatively evenly, sometimes alternating drives with each other. I'm not fully convinced that Johnson has much faith in RB D'Andre Swift, who had the least rushing yards over expectation per attempt of any running back in the NFL last season.

Swift would be fine as a pass-catching back, but he's not the best pass-protector, and his inability to succeed on inside runs due to his unwillingness to initiate contact whenever possible holds him back massively. Jeanty has no such issues, and will willingly seek out contact whenever the opportunity presents itself.

Ashton Jeanty flows. He goes where the play allows.

His skill set is awesome. The patient approach is what elevates Jeanty to inevitability status as a rusher. pic.twitter.com/fGSEuXPCZK

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) March 6, 2025

Jeanty would allow Johnson to run the ball as much as he wanted to (or at least nearly as much). And that's crucial to the offense functioning as he'd like. Taking as much pressure off quarterback Caleb Williams' shoulders and opening up the pass game are important goals for Johnson.

No Wide Receiver Besides Travis Hunter Goes In The Top 10 Picks

It's no secret that this year's wide receiver draft class is weaker than usual. While last year's draft was studded with elite prospects, and three of them ended up being studs in their first season (Brian Thomas Jr., Malik Nabers, and Ladd McConkey), this year's class is lacking in star power.

Former Arizona WR Tetairoa McMillan is considered to be the WR1, which is a huge mistake in my eyes, but the NFL is lower on him than the fantasy football community is. In a draft that's loaded with edge-rusher talent, we could see teams eschew WRs early on.

One of my last mock drafts for the 2025 NFL draft pic.twitter.com/Ur4BZY2RqV

— JacobSzn (Mariners Season) (@jacobsports12) April 10, 2025

There are teams near the top of the draft that desperately need help along the offensive and defensive lines. Former Miami QB Cam Ward will likely be taken with the first overall pick. Offensive tackles Will Campbell and Armand Membou, running back Ashton Jeanty, tight end Tyler Warren, and edge-rushers Abdul Carter, Shemar Stewart, and Mykel Williams are all good bets to be taken in the top 10.

Former Michigan cornerback Will Johnson is also an elite prospect, and a team could surprise by taking him early in the first round. McMillan falling to the Dallas Cowboys, or even further, wouldn't be a huge surprise. The Cowboys tend to use their first-round picks on offensive and defensive linemen when they can, which isn't unwise. Bolstering the trenches is always a good thing.

This pretty much sums up why I’m not completely sold on Tet McMillan. pic.twitter.com/qJN4N0ZCgq

— Dan Viens 🎙(Seahawks Forever Podcast) (@SeahawksForever) April 9, 2025

The fantasy football community has seen an avalanche of purely positive propaganda about McMillan ever since his four-touchdown, 300-yard game against the New Mexico Lobos. In his next game against Northern Arizona, he caught two passes for 11 yards. But because he's tall and has had some big games, many are enamored with the idea of him being the next elite WR1 in the league.

Ignoring his bad film is part of the process that gets you to that mindset, though. He has a lot of terrible tape that shouldn't be ignored. His offense schemed to help him get open often, and he often saw favorable coverages against poor defenders, but the Colorado game in which he was put into a box by a mostly unknown Colorado defensive back (not Travis Hunter) was deeply concerning.

Tetairoa McMillan doesn't pace his routes very well. Is this supposed to be trickery? He has one speed when he runs his routes. Either this DB is a star (he's not) or this route just isn't good. Being 6'4" doesn't make this better. pic.twitter.com/T0CEGBPaoG

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 19, 2025

For the most part, against competent defensive backs, if he's not given much space, he doesn't do a lot to shake free. The hashes are narrower in the NFL, so he won't be able to abuse the outside routes quite as much. He doesn't pace his routes well, struggles against athletic defensive backs, and likely would run a 4.60 or slower 40-yard dash time. That's why he didn't run at the combine. Hand-timed 40s are consistently faster by a significant margin than accurate laser-timed 40s.

T-Mac's lack of speed will make it tough for him to win on vertically-breaking routes, and he won't be able to abuse the comeback route as well because DBs won't be afraid of his long speed. And the easy slam-dunk busted coverages and designed targets won't come as readily. He's better off as a WR2 at the next level, and teams will probably see that there's much more value to be had at other positions.

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