RADIO
Elliott looks at pitchers with surprising starts recently. These SPs could emerge as fantasy baseball waiver wire targets for Week 1 in 2025, or just mirages.
Welcome back to the "Are You For Real?" series as we dive into Week 1 of the 2025 fantasy baseball season. It feels so good to be back! For those who are not familiar, this is a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.
It was difficult to pick just three pitchers to write about with all the exciting baseball we've seen so far. This week, we're looking at three interesting arms who were hot names this spring and came out of the gate strong. We'll be breaking down the A's Jeffrey Springs utter dominance against Seattle, Jose Soriano blanking the White Sox, and Max Meyer's strong outing against the Pirates.
Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo! and are accurate as of March 31.
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Jeffrey Springs, Athletics
53% Rostered
2024 Stats: 33 IP, 3.27 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 18.3% K-BB%
3/28 @ SEA: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB 9 K
Welcome to Sacramento, Jeffrey Springs. The 32-year-old lefty had one heck of an Athletics debut, fanning nine Mariners en route to his first victory of the season. Springs came over to the Athletics via trade with Tampa Bay, where he was effective when healthy. Now with a firm spot in the Athletics rotation, could he emerge as a fantasy asset? Is there any bounce to this spring?
Originally a 30th-round draft pick out of Appalachian State, it’s safe to say that Springs was not much of a prospect coming up. He spent time with Texas and Boston before finding a home in Tampa Bay. Springs was awfully effective as a Ray as well, even as a starter. Between 2022-2024 he had a 2.50 ERA, 3.08 FIP, and 21.8% K-BB% as a starting pitcher. Unfortunately, he only threw 180 innings over those three seasons, most of which came in 2022. Springs underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023 and made just 10 total starts between 2023-2024.
Springs works with a five-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, a changeup, a slider, a sweeper, and a cutter. He has five pitches, but he primarily relies on three, the four-seamer, changeup, and slider. We’ll start with his best offering, the changeup.
His changeup was on display in this outing, as Springs used it 27% of the time and earned nine of his 17 whiffs with the pitch. He also had a monster 69% whiff rate with it against the Mariners. A low spin, 80 mph offering, the changeup moves down and away from righties and acts as his primary offspeed pitch. He boasts plus movement and break with the pitch and has had some nutty numbers with it over his career. Springs has an insane 22.9% swinging strike rate and a 41.3% chase rate against his changeup for his career.
Springs’ changeup is so good that he actually has reverse platoon splits. He primarily throws the changeup to righties, and righties have a .289 wOBA against Springs all time, versus a .335 wOBA for lefties. Springs’ changeup has all the makings of an elite strikeout pitch and he should be able to put up plus strikeout numbers.
Now, let’s look at Springs’ fastball, which is sort of a relic from the past at 89.9 mph. He ranks in the fourth percentile of fastball velocity for this season already. Springs also has average spin with the pitch at 2,186 RPM in this start. What the pitch lacks in measurables it makes up for in effectiveness. Batters hit just .216 off Springs’ fastball in 2024 and hit .210 off it in his last full season, 2022. He did have a .490 SLG and .338 wOBA off the pitch last season thanks to a 19-degree average launch angle and a 92.8 mph average exit velocity.
Springs absolutely loves to attack hitters with high fastballs and induce popups and flyballs. That’s not necessarily a bad thing for a pitcher who can’t blow his fastball by batters, especially with his fastball shape. He has plus horizontal break, and hitters will tend to swing under the pitch, leading to some easy flyball outs. Springs may be susceptible to home runs, and you sort of wish he was pitching his home games in the Coliseum. Still, I don’t think the occasional bout of Gopheritis is enough to scare me off Springs.
Springs rounds out his repertoire with a slider. He does throw a show-me cutter and sweeper, but it’s mainly about the fastball, changeup, and slider for Springs. Springs’ slider is definitely a tertiary option as he has below-average drop and break with the pitch. His slider has a high zone rate at 56.1% for his career, and he has just a 9.7% career swinging strike rate with the pitch.
It’s not a strikeout pitch, paling in comparison to his filthy changeup. The slider has proven to be one of Springs’ best groundball pitches with a 43% groundball rate, but he’s a flyball pitcher through and through.
Verdict:
It's hard to deny just how good Springs has been when healthy. His 2022-2024 stats are basically a full season, and it’s near Cy Young-caliber ball. Whether he can string that together for a full healthy single season is a whole different question, but there’s certainly value to be had with Springs. His changeup can be devastating, and he gets by with below-average fastball velocity thanks to his ability to induce lazy flyballs.
He’s worth adding in 10-team leagues or deeper. His next start comes home against the Cubs, who were middle of the pack against lefties last season with a .307 wOBA and 99 wRC+. It’s not as good a matchup as Seattle, but he’s playable in that outing.
Jose Soriano, Los Angeles Angels
28% Rostered
2024 Stats: 113 IP, 3.42 ERA, 3.80 FIP, 11.1% K-BB%
3/29 @ CWS: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
Soriano was dominant on Saturday, blanking the White Sox over seven innings of shutout ball, striking out five along the way. Soriano picked up his first victory of the season, and after a solid 2024 campaign, fantasy managers have to be wondering whether this guy is legit. Can you trust Soriano, or should you leave him on waivers?
Originally signed as an international free agent out of the Dominican Republic, Soriano has had a unique path to the big leagues. He was selected by the Pirates in the 2020 Rule 5 Draft at the age of 21, but needed Tommy John surgery and was ultimately returned to the Angels. Soriano works with a five-pitch mix consisting of a sinker, curveball, four-seamer, slider, and splitter. Soriano may have five pitches at his disposal, but he relied heavily on two of them in this outing, the sinker and the knuckle curve.
Soriano threw either the sinker or the knuckle curve a combined 89% of the time against Chicago on Saturday, which is higher than any of his combined usage of the two pitches in 2024. Could this be a change in approach or just a product of circumstance? He typically mixed in his four-seamer and splitter last year, so this writer is inclined to believe that it’s the latter. It’s not exactly groundbreaking analysis to say the White Sox are bad, but here you have it, the White Sox are bad, and he likely only needed the two pitches to navigate their lineup.
The sinker did its job on Saturday, inducing an average launch angle against of -3 degrees, good for an 81.8% groundball rate. Nobody would expect Soriano to maintain an 81.8% groundball rate with his sinker over the course of a full season, but the number is actually not that far off. Soriano had a 71.5% groundball rate with his sinker last season and an overall groundball rate of 59.7%. The dude is a groundball machine thanks to his sinker, which has plus vertical drop. Take a look at that sinker shape versus league average.
With plus break and drop, it’s no wonder batters are swinging over the pitch and into groundball outs. Have a look at this nasty one from this start.
José Soriano, Nasty 97mph Sinker. 😨 pic.twitter.com/MSASTi6tGl
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 29, 2025
Good night, Brooks Baldwin. Soriano got the strikeout with that one, but don’t expect that too often from him. He only got one whiff on 17 swings with his sinker in this start and had a 7.3% swinging strike rate with the pitch last season. The sinker isn’t a strikeout pitch so these are reasonable results, but fantasy managers should temper expectations on strikeouts for Soriano. He has big velocity at 96.6 mph in this start, but he’s a groundball pitcher, not a strikeout pitcher.
Even the results with his best strikeout pitch, the knuckle curve, were so-so in this outing. He did earn three whiffs on 10 swings, and after doing some extended calculations I’ve determined that that’s good for a 30% whiff rate. He had a 40.2% whiff rate with the pitch last season, so these are underwhelming outcomes. The pitch still looks pretty nasty though; have a look at this one from this outing.
José Soriano, Wicked 85mph Knuckle Curve. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/1mfltyTgtu
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 29, 2025
Maybe he can get more strikeouts with it this season, but in order to do that Soriano will likely need to start mixing in some of his other pitches. He had a 16.3% swinging strike rate with his splitter last season, and a 20% swinging strike rate with his slider as well. Perhaps he could start throwing one or both of those pitches more frequently to induce more whiffs. They are both strong pitches and batters hit .150 or under against both offerings last season.
There’s a solid foundation here; Soriano does two things really well, and that’s pump velo and induce groundballs. He was 97th percentile in fastball velocity last year, and 97th percentile in groundball rate last year. When it comes to fringe pitchers, this writer loves guys on the extreme ends of the spectrum, and Soriano certainly qualifies.
Verdict:
This was an outstanding start, but there’s a giant White Sox-colored elephant in the room with this outing. Yes, it was a nice start, but this isn’t exactly the ’27 Yankees here. Last season the White Sox were dead last against right-handed pitching by a good margin with a .273 wOBA and 75 wRC+. And they somehow seem to be worse? Many of these hitters would be in the minor leagues if they were in other organizations.
Soriano still could be a fantasy asset in the right matchup; he’s one of the best groundball starting pitchers in baseball these days. He’s a fringe add in 12-team or deeper. His next start should come against St. Louis in Busch Stadium, and the Cardinals were 15th against RHP last season with a .312 wOBA and 101 wRC+. Not the White Sox, but an okay matchup. He’s usable, but only if you’re not protecting ratios for the week.
Max Meyer, Miami Marlins
22% Rostered
2024 Stats: 57 IP, 5.68 ERA, 5.90 FIP, 10.9 K-BB%
3/30 vs. PIT: 5.2 IP, 5 H, 2 R (1 ER), 1 BB, 7 K
Meyer was on fire this Sunday, striking out seven Buccos over 5.2 innings. The Marlins can only win in walk-off fashion, so Meyer didn’t pick up the win, but it was still a solid start for the young righty. Is there something more here with Meyer, or did he just take advantage of a weak opponent?
Originally the third overall pick in the 2020 MLB draft, Meyer had some prospect pedigree coming up through the minors. His stock took a hit when he had to undergo Tommy John surgery in 2022, causing him to throw just six MLB innings between 2022-2023. He was not effective when he returned either, as Meyer posted an ugly 5.68 ERA and 5.90 FIP over 11 starts in 2024. Meyer works with a five-pitch mix consisting of a four-seamer, slider, sinker, sweeper, and changeup.
His main problem in 2024 was home runs, as Meyer surrendered a whopping 2.21 HR/9 in 2024. He had never had a home run problem in the minors and has always had groundball tendencies, with his groundball rate usually hovering around 50% in the majors and minors. He had a wild 21.5% HR/FB ratio in 2024, while the league average was 11.6%. Home runs are one area where Meyer should be able to improve just by having that rate normalize toward league average. That's also why he had a 4.43 xFIP compared to his 5.90 FIP, as xFIP corrects for HR/FB rate.
He does surrender a lot of hard contact, including a 90.6 mph average exit velocity last season and a 90.3 mph average exit velocity in this start. The Pirates sort of crushed his four-seamer, which is a concern as the four-seamer was hit hard in 2024. Batters had a 96.1 mph average exit velocity off Meyer’s fastball in this start and had a 94.9 mph average exit velocity last season. Opponents clobbered Meyer’s fastball with a .330 AVG, .648 SLG, and .430 wOBA against in 2024.
Meyer threw with decent velocity at 95.6 mph in this outing, but his fastball shape leaves something to be desired. He has perfectly average movement with his four-seamer, meaning it’s not very deceptive and hitters can square it up more easily. Here’s a look at his movement profile from his first start.
See how the fastball is clustered around league average? It’s easier for batters to pick up on and strike well, and that’s exactly what happened, even in this start, as Andrew McCutchen hit a towering home run off a high Meyer fastball.
Meyer’s fastball isn’t his best pitch, and Meyer knows it. He relied heavily on the slider in this outing, throwing it 39.8% of the time. It was on in this one as well, with Meyer earning 10 of his 12 whiffs with the slider, good for a monster 50% whiff rate. With plus vertical movement, Meyer’s slider dives away from righties as an excellent wipeout pitch. Here’s an example from this start.
Poor IKF didn’t have a chance at that one, and Meyer was racking up the whiffs and strikeouts with the pitch all day. Heavy slider usage isn’t exactly a new thing for Meyer, as he used the pitch 40.2% of the time last season. Even amid his struggles batters still hit just .243 off the pitch with a 16% swinging strike rate. The expected stats are even better, as Meyer had a .186 xBA, .328 xSLG, and .243 xwOBA against the pitch last season. Overall, this looks like a bona fide strikeout pitch and one that Meyer should be able to use to put hitters away.
Interestingly, Meyer relied more heavily on his sinker in this outing than last season. He threw it 15.1% of the time against Pittsburgh, while he had just a 2.1% usage rate with the pitch last year. His sinker does have slightly above average drop and did a good job of keeping the ball on the ground in this start.
Meyer had a 0-degree average launch angle against his sinker in this outing. Perhaps Meyer could mix in his sinker more often this year, alleviating some of the concern with his four-seamer and helping to induce more groundballs and avoid home runs. It’s definitely a step in the right direction, and we’ll have to see if he continues this usage in future starts.
Verdict:
Meyer does one thing very well, and that’s sling sliders for swinging strikes. His slider is a plus strikeout pitch and could have him improving on the 18.5% K rate that he had last season. His four-seam fastball has above average velocity, but with average movement and shape it does little to deceive hitters and has become a liability on the mound, even in this outing. Meyer may be leaning on a sinker more often this season as he threw one 15.1% of the time in this outing, compared to 2.1% usage last season.
That would help take some of the heat off his four-seamer and help him induce more groundballs. Home runs have been a problem for him in the past, but a bloated HR/FB ratio and strong minor league numbers suggest that he could improve on this over time. Overall, Meyer is still a work-in-progress as a pitcher, and one that could have blow-up potential if his slider isn’t working. Let’s not forget that Meyer allowed at least four runs in six of his last seven starts in 2024. He’s a speculative add if you have the roster spot, though I’d certainly prioritize Springs over Meyer or Soriano. His next start comes on the road at Atlanta, and I’m not ready to trust him there.
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