First Base Fantasy Baseball Bust Candidates - Avoid In 2025 Drafts?

March 18, 2025

Andy's first base (1B) fantasy baseball busts, avoids for NFBC drafts in 2025. You should avoid these overvalued 1B at their ADPs and pivot to another position.

The first base position is very top-heavy in 2025. In NFBC drafts, three first basemen consistently go within the two rounds, with three more going before the 50th pick. However, following this top group of proven studs, several options later in the draft have begun to become popular targets but have glaring concerns.

Is it worth paying for these players at their current ADP? Should fantasy managers pivot to alternative options earlier in the draft or wait until later?

In this piece, I will analyze four first basemen that I project to bust at their current ADP. While they are not "bad" picks in certain team builds, it may be smarter to target other options at the point of the draft. Be sure to follow @RotoBallerMLB and me at @A_SMITH_FS on X for league-winning content all offseason. Let's dive in!

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Spencer Steer, 1B/OF, Cincinnati Reds

ADP: 110.2

At a near identical ADP of Casas sits Spencer Steer of the Cincinnati Reds. After posting a strong .271/.356/.464 slash line with 23 home runs and 15 stolen bases, Steer took a steep step back in 2024.

Last summer, the 27-year-old posted a much lower .225/.319/.402 line. However, he was able to hit the 20/20 mark for the first time in his career, going deep 20 times and swiping 25 bags.

Despite the increase in power and speed, most of Steer's game declined and, as a result, carries some red flags heading into 2025.

In 2024, Steer generated a max exit velocity of 108 mph, a two-point drop from 2023. In addition, he also saw his xBA drop by 17 points and xSLG drop by 38 points compared to his 2023 production.

In addition, even though he improved his xBA when facing offspeed pitches, his production declined when facing fastballs and breaking balls, which is not a promising sign.

While he does carry outfield eligibility, given his sharp decline in production over the past season, his current ADP is not worth investment. Similar to Casas' ADP, fantasy managers should instead pivot to the previously mentioned Pasquantino as he should provide a much higher floor, albeit with less speed production.

In addition to Pasquantino, there are other strong high-floor starting pitchers in this range, such as Joe Ryan, Logan Webb, and Freddy Peralta.

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, New York Yankees

ADP: 175.2

The Yankees signed the 37-year-old to a one-year deal worth $12.5 million earlier in the offseason. Paul Goldschmidt is expected to be the team's primary first baseman to open the campaign.

After winning the 2022 NL MVP Award, Goldschmidt has been on a steep decline. In 2023, he held a .268/.363/.447 line with 25 home runs and 11 swiped bags. However, he took an even larger step back last summer, posting a career-worst .245/.302/.414 line with 22 long balls and 11 stolen bases.

His underlying metrics suggest a more significant decline could occur in 2025.

Last summer, Goldschmidt generated a career-worst .255 xBA, .450 xSLG, and .329 xwOBA. His xSLG and xwOBA declined 40 points from the previous season, while his xBA dropped 16 points.

His drop in production is quite noticeable when one looks at his metrics against offspeed pitches. Since his MVP season in 2022, Goldschmidt has seen his xwOBA against offspeed pitches decline. His production against fastball has dropped as well, but not as drastically.

While his production against breaking balls slightly improved, it did not offset the drop against the other types of pitches.

In addition, the 37-year-old has seen his strikeout rate increase by two points each season since 2022. He just posted a career-worst 26.5 percent strikeout rate in this past season. This is likely due to his increase in chase rate.

Given his declining metrics, fantasy managers looking for a first baseman later in drafts should instead pivot to Yandy Diaz at an ADP of 201.9 or Ryan Mountcastle at an ADP of 243.4.

Triston Casas, 1B, Boston Red Sox

ADP: 110.7

There is no doubt Triston Casas has flashed elite upside when on the field. However, he has not been on the field often. Over his first three MLB seasons, Casas has appeared in just 222 games.

During his rookie season in 2022, Casas was promoted late in the season and held a disappointing .197/.358.408 line. Then, during the 2023 campaign, Casas appeared in 132 games and held a promising .263/.367/.490 line.

However, Casas was poised for a breakout last season but suffered a torn cartilage in his left rib cage, limiting him to just 63 contests.

When he returned to action late in the season, Casas struggled at the plate, raising some serious concerns heading into 2025. Over his final 40 games, Casas held a .242/.333/.439 line with a glaring 32.7 percent strikeout rate. In 2023, he held a significantly lower 25.1 percent strikeout rate.

In addition, he generated a .219 xBA, which suggests he could face even more regression during the 2025 season.

While Casas could very well return to his 2023 form, given the significant increase in strikeout rate and potential to hurt your batting average production, his current ADP is a hefty price tag. At a similar 112.2 ADP, Vinnie Pasquantino carries a much higher floor from a batting average perspective and counting stats.

Is Triston Casas overpriced?🤔
When he returned from his rib injury last season:
😬 32.7% K-rate
📉 .242/.333/.439 slash
🚨 .219 xBA screams regression
112.2 ADP is a steep cost. Vinnie Pasquantino offers a safer floor at the same price.
Buying or fading Casas in 25'? pic.twitter.com/QBLORk5Jig

— Andy Smith (@A_Smith_FS) February 18, 2025

Josh Naylor, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks

ADP: 94.5

Earlier in the offseason, the Arizona Diamondbacks acquired first baseman Josh Naylor from the Cleveland Guardians in exchange for right-handed pitcher Slade Cecconi.

Throughout his time in Arizona, Naylor has become an RBI specialist. Over the past two seasons, the 27-year-old has tallied at least 97 RBI in each campaign. Batting behind Steven Kwan and Jose Ramirez provided him with elite opportunities, and being penciled in behind Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll should offer similar results.

However, besides his RBI production, Naylor has some glaring concerns. After posting a stellar .308 AVG and a .293 xBA during the 2023 campaign, Naylor sharply declined last season as he held a much lower .243 AVG and generated a .257 xBA.

While his home run count increased from 17 to 31 over the past season, his SLG remained consistent (.489 in 2023 and .456 in 2024). He raised his fly-ball rate by three points, which caused the power increase and, in turn, affected his overall consistency.

Last summer, he posted a modest .260 BA against fastballs, which was a sharp decline from the .351 BA he generated against them in 2023.

He also took a significant step back against breaking balls as his batting average dropped 61 points (.279 - .218), and slugging dropped 100 points (.514 - .414).

Lastly, he saw his strikeout rate jump three points up compared to 2023 (13.7 percent - 16.6 percent).

While he is not a bad target, especially if you are lacking upside RBI production, there is an outcome where Naylor disappoints in batting average, given his declining metrics. If you target several leadoff hitters early in your draft, like Jose Altuve or Carroll, Naylor could be a viable target, given that his RBI upside helps balance your roster construction.

However, if you are looking for a stable option with a similar RBI upside and a higher floor, target Christian Walker two picks later (96.4 ADP) or Cody Bellinger in the following round (ADP 108.4). In addition, other players at Naylor's ADP carry much higher upsides, such as Junior Caminero or Spencer Schwellenbach, who are more worthy of a top 100 pick.

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