RADIO
RB Start 'Em: James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
Conner keeps pumping out the production down the stretch. He’s now put together back-to-back weeks with more than 22 fantasy points, including a 30.8-point performance against the Patriots last week, where he averaged 6.9 yards per carry on his way to 110 rushing yards and a pair of touchdown runs.
Conner has registered double-digit fantasy production in 11 of 14 contests this season (one was 9.9), and heading into Week 16, the Cardinals workhorse back finds himself as the RB10 in fantasy with 224.4 fantasy points and an average of 16 fantasy points per game.
Conner’s 568 yards after contact are the sixth-most in the NFL this season. He averages 2.62 yards after contact per attempt while forcing a league-best 62 missed tackles.
With Conner’s recent success, a matchup against a Panthers team that has allowed a league-high 28.44 fantasy points per game to running backs this season has to get fantasy managers pumped up! Carolina has allowed 15 rushing touchdowns through 14 contests, making Conner is safe of a play as any.
RB Start 'Em: Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers
Jacobs has single-handedly nuked the Packers’ passing game as he’s rushed for 11 scores in the last seven contests, oh my. Right now, Jacobs is this Packers offense, and it’s safe to question whether or not to ground every Packers pass-catcher in fantasy until further notice.
Since Week 7, only Saquon Barkley (204) and Jahmyr Gibbs (182) have produced more fantasy points for their managers than Jacobs and his 178.4. Over those nine games, Jacobs has averaged 22.3 fantasy points per game. Two very good reasons why Jacobs is a must-start are production and volume. We see the production, but Jacobs has had 18 or more carries in six of his last seven contests, resulting in six 20-plus point performances over that period.
The Saints have allowed 14 touchdowns to running backs on the ground this season, the second-most. New Orleans is allowing 23.71 fantasy points per game against opposing backs this season, a number that is certainly going to increase here in Week 16. Jacobs is a good bet again, but you probably already knew that.
RB Start 'Em: Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns
On Sunday, Ford replaced an injured Nick Chubb and broke off a 62-yard touchdown run while adding another 22 yards on his other six rushing attempts. Remember that when Chubb was on the IR, Ford was productive in his opportunities. Between Weeks 1 through 4, Ford had 10 or more fantasy points in three of those contests, including an 18.9-point performance opening weekend.
Ford is positioning himself as a potential league-winner for fantasy managers as we head into the semi-finals. This week, Ford faces a Bengals defensive unit that has allowed 319 rushing yards and 166 receiving yards on 17 receptions to opposing backs over the last four weeks.
When you add those total yards up and throw in three rushing touchdowns, that works out to an average of 27.83 fantasy points against per game, the fifth-most. With no one expected to cut into Ford’s volume, Ford will once again look to dodge Bengals defenders on his way over the goal line.
RB Sit 'Em: Rico Dowdle, Dallas Cowboys
Dowdle and the Dallas Cowboys have a questionable matchup heading into Week 16.
Vita Vea is a bad man, we all know that. We also know that over the last four weeks, Tampa has allowed 13.90 fantasy points per game to running backs, second only to Detroit’s 11.28. Over that time, Tampa has allowed just 257 total yards, 184 on the ground, and just a single score.
The recent competition, or lack thereof, has helped the Buccaneers’ stat line, but the way that Baker Mayfield has been performing as of late, Dowdle may see his game script flipped. Volume slowly disappears as CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson become more involved as the Cowboys play catchup in this one.
RB Sit 'Em: Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs
Since returning in Week 13, Pacheco has produced fantasy outings of 5.9, 8.1, and 5.7 points. That’s an average of 6.6 fantasy points per game. Not great.
Looking at Week 15 and the Chiefs backfield split, both Pacheco and Kareem Hunt saw a snap share of 37%. Hunt and Pacheco each had 13 carries and one reception, while Hunt had an additional target. Kansas City isn’t concerned about personal achievements; they want to get to the playoffs with that No. 1 seed and a backfield with fresh legs.
Considering the backfield split and the matchup, it’s hard to envision a scenario in which Pacheco hits double digits for fantasy managers. Houston is allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points on a per-game basis, with 18.09. If you split that evenly, that is just over nine fantasy points. Simply put, better options are available, with less risk and more favorable matchups ahead.
RB Sit 'Em: Joe Mixon, Houston Texans
No team in the NFL has done a better job at frustrating fantasy managers with running backs more than the Kansas City Chiefs defense. The Chiefs have allowed 885 rushing yards this season through 14 games, 63.2 per contest, and just 292 receiving yards to the position, both best in the NFL.
Mixon started the season like a man on a mission. Coming into Week 16, he sits 90 yards shy of 1,000 rushing yards, which would be the fifth time in his nine-year career that he has hit that milestone. Mixon ran for 100 yards in five of his first six contests to start the season. However, over the last five weeks, he hit the century mark just twice.
It’s not easy to sit a running back with 12 total touchdowns, so I get fantasy managers’ refusal to sit him this week. Consider this more of a temper-your-expectations inclusion this week. When firing up Mixon in your lineups, make sure to add some solid floor plays to help mitigate the potential risk from this matchup.
