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Kacey Kasem looks at NFL players from 2010-2023 who were excellent fantasy football value picks. She breaks down where they were taken in drafts, why they were passed on, and how their season played out.
Throughout the years, many fantasy football players have stood out as value draft picks. Whether it be that running back you drafted in the 12th round who became a starter, that quarterback who finally gets a supporting cast, or a pass catcher who becomes a red-zone threat. We’ve all had those “sleeper” picks that work out for us.
Plenty of players could have made the list of greatest fantasy football value picks. Justin Herbert in 2020 or Sam LaPorta in 2023 are examples of former value picks. However, I only selected one player per year for the last 14 years. Not everyone made the cut, but the ones who did will take you down memory lane.
I used Average Draft Pick (ADP) data for 12-team PPR leagues from Fantasy Football Calculator and fantasy football season leaders from FantasyData. This allowed me to pinpoint some of the greatest fantasy football value picks over the past 14 seasons. There were great value players from before 2010, but without that historical ADP data, I wanted to focus on the ones we have ADP for.
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Arian Foster (2010)
ADP 38.2 (RB18)
2010 Season: RB1 (1 overall), 392 PPR fantasy points (24.5 points per game)
Foster’s 2010 campaign was a fantasy MVP season. The Houston Texans running back had 14 double-digit fantasy football performances that season. The Texans had a poor defense, allowing Foster to shine in the offense. The talented back outperformed his ADP by posting 1,616 rushing yards and 16 rushing touchdowns plus 604 receiving yards for two touchdowns.
In the first game of the season against the Colts in 2010:
Arian Foster became the 5th youngest player to ever rush for 230 yards while having 3 touchdowns.
He was special..#WeAreTexans pic.twitter.com/fsgAA2MJ95
— Bradeaux (@BradeauxNBA) August 10, 2022
17 other running backs were drafted ahead of him in fantasy football drafts, but only six of those players were top-10 running backs once the season ended. Some didn’t take Foster in fantasy drafts due to being an undrafted free agent while others were concerned about his injury history. His performance in 2010 silenced the critics.
Cam Newton (2011)
ADP 151.5 (QB23)
2011 Season: QB3 (4 overall), 370.64 PPR fantasy points (23.2 points per game)
Carolina Panthers rookie sensation Cam Newton took the fantasy football world by storm in 2011. He totaled 4,051 yards passing while throwing for 21 scores. Newton also rushed for 709 yards on 125 attempts for 14 touchdowns. This was the season he broke the record for rushing touchdowns by a quarterback.
September 11, 2011: Cam Newton’s regular season debut. 24–37 passing for 422 yards, two passing TDs, one rushing TD, and one INT in a 28–21 loss at Arizona. pic.twitter.com/dLNBSjJ8Db
— This Day In Sports Clips (@TDISportsClips) September 11, 2020
Drafters were concerned he could be a rookie bust, and he was readily available to pick up off waivers once the season started. Some people had issues with his character while others thought his college success wouldn’t transfer over to the NFL. Whatever the reason for not taking him in 2011, those who waited to draft him were gifted a brilliant fantasy season.
Robert Griffin III (2012)
ADP 101.8 (QB13)
2012 Season: QB5 (7 overall), 317.5 PPR fantasy points (21.2 points per game)
Griffin’s 2012 campaign with Washington saw the rookie quarterback complete 258 of his 393 passing attempts for 3,200 yards and 20 passing scores. He also had 815 rushing yards on 120 attempts, scoring seven rushing touchdowns. Wide receiver Pierre Garcon missed a portion of the season after going down with an injury in Week 1.
Highest-graded rookie QBs through the first 8 weeks of a season since 2006:
1️⃣ Robert Griffin III, WAS (2012): 84.6
2️⃣ Mac Jones, NE (2021): 84.0
3️⃣ Carson Wentz, PHI (2016): 83.4
4️⃣ Baker Mayfield, CLE (2018): 76.9
5️⃣ Joe Burrow, CIN (2020): 76.6pic.twitter.com/b9R5lRuArr— PFF College (@PFF_College) November 3, 2021
Although there was no powerhouse to throw the ball to, being a mobile quarterback worked wonders for Griffin. The Offensive Rookie of the Year had a big season on the ground, even though he missed a game due to a knee injury. He tore his right ACL in the third game of his sophomore season at Baylor, and drafters were often low on him due to this.
Josh Gordon (2013)
ADP 98.1 (WR35)
2013 Season: WR2 (7 overall), 314.4 PPR fantasy points (22.5 points per game)
Why was Gordon’s stock so low in 2013? He was suspended for the first two games of the season due to the NFL’s policy on substance abuse. Suspensions for substance abuse violations plagued the talented receiver’s career, and fantasy managers were scared they’d get burned yet again.
People really forget how good prime Josh Gordon was ⚡️pic.twitter.com/wCjJyOOwcS
— FanDuel (@FanDuel) March 30, 2024
Even after missing the first two games, Gordon tallied 87 receptions on 159 targets while going for 1,646 yards and nine touchdowns. 34 wide receivers were selected before Gordon in 2013 fantasy drafts, with only Demaryius Thomas having a better season at that position. Thomas was drafted as WR6 while Gordon was taken as WR35.
Russell Wilson (2014)
ADP 106.1 (QB14)
2014 Season: QB3 (8 overall), 328.6 PPR fantasy points (20.5 points per game)
In his third season in the league, Wilson ended up as QB3 in fantasy leagues behind Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers. His 2014 season was one of the more impressive rushing seasons seen from a quarterback. He completed 285 of his 452 passes for 3,475 passing yards and 20 passing touchdowns. The Seahawks quarterback also rushed for 849 yards and six touchdowns.
#tbt to the Russell Wilson pop pass to Ricardo Lockette in the 2014 NFL season opener pic.twitter.com/qyBesDTSwi
— Parker (@ParkerLewes) September 9, 2021
Marshawn Lynch was a dynamo at the running back position, and drafters were hesitant to take Wilson due to feeling like the receiving group needed to be stronger. They also had doubts he could be consistent all year long. Coming off the board in fantasy drafts as QB14 worked out for those who drafted him. With a strong performance through the air and on the ground, Wilson helped people win their fantasy title.
Cam Newton (2015)
ADP 119.1 (QB15)
2015 Season: QB1 (1 overall), 389.08 PPR fantasy points (24.3 points per game)
Newton makes the list again. I didn’t want to put him on the list twice, but he had two strong seasons for those who waited on QB. In 2015, Newton was the QB1 to end the season, as well as the No. 1 player overall in fantasy. He completed 296 of his 495 pass attempts for 3,837 yards and 35 touchdowns. In addition, Newton had 132 rushing attempts for 636 yards and 10 scores on the ground.
Cam Newton’s 2015 MVP season was a MOVIE 🎬
pic.twitter.com/JNdNYzk13D— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) February 8, 2024
Not only was Newton the fantasy MVP, but he also took home MVP in the NFL. One of the major reasons Newton wasn’t a top draft pick in 2015 fantasy drafts was because wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin suffered a season-ending knee injury. The Panthers had star tight end Greg Olsen and a decent running back in Jonathan Stewart (who also suffered from the injury bug), but that wasn’t enough for some drafters. Olsen showed up for Newton in 2015, catching 77 balls for 1,104 yards and seven scores.
Matt Ryan (2016)
ADP 146.5 (QB20)
2016 Season: QB2 (3 overall), 347.46 PPR fantasy points (21.7 points per game)
Matty Ice’s MVP season saw the Atlanta quarterback score more fantasy points than he had ever scored. Taken late in drafts due to his inconsistency and poor performances from prior years, Ryan went on to pass for 38 touchdowns while throwing for 4,944 yards. This was good enough for the QB2 finish behind Aaron Rodgers.
Matt Ryan + Julio in 2016 was so special pic.twitter.com/d0cwiuyGvZ
— Mina Kimes (@minakimes) April 22, 2024
Ryan’s season was exceptional thanks partially to Julio Jones, who had 83 catches for 1,409 yards and six touchdowns. Running back Devonta Freeman rushed for 1,079 yards on 227 attempts, taking the ball in for 11 scores. He also caught 54 passes for 462 yards and two scores. Ryan made sure to get the most out of the players around him, leading his team to the Super Bowl.
Alvin Kamara (2017)
ADP 140.0 (RB52)
2017 Season: RB3 (4 overall), 314.4 PPR fantasy points (19.6 points per game)
This was the season Kamara showed up in a giant way. The New Orleans running back finished as RB3 on the year, despite being drafted with an ADP of 140. Drafters were down on drafting Kamara because running back Mark Ingram II was also on the roster. There was no way the team could support two stud running backs as it had never happened before. Furthermore, Adrian Peterson was on the roster for the season’s first four games before being traded to Arizona.
Alvin Kamara takes a screen pass from Drew Brees on 11/7/2017 and does Kamara things and puts it in the end zone. Look at the balance. #Saints would beat the #GoBucs that day 30-10. Brees finished 22/27 263 yds and 2 TDs. Kamara had 10 Rush 68 yds 1 TD and 6 Rec 84 yds 1 TD. pic.twitter.com/5DpUyg3PlG
— New Orleans Saints History (@SaintsHistory) January 24, 2022
2017 was special, though. Not only was Kamara RB3, but Ingram finished as RB6. The Saints offense was on fire in 2017, and they proved that two running backs from the same team could be in the top 10. Kamara ended the season with 728 rushing yards on 120 attempts, finding the end zone eight times. He additionally saw 100 targets through the air, catching 81 balls for 826 yards and five touchdowns.
Patrick Mahomes (2018)
ADP 118.1 (QB15)
2018 Season: QB1 (1 overall), 417.08 PPR fantasy points (26.1 points per game)
Talk about a season to remember. Mahomes took over the starting role in Kansas City in 2018 after backing up Alex Smith in 2017. Smith was sent to Washington and Mahomes started his era with a bang. In 2018, Mahomes threw for 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns. 50! He attempted 580 passes and was able to complete 383. Mahomes also had 60 rush attempts for 272 yards and two rushing scores.
September 23, 2018: Patrick Mahomes throws his first touchdown pass at Arrowhead Stadium 😮💨
(🎥 @NFL)
— KC Sports Network (@KCSportsNetwork) February 8, 2024
Many fantasy drafters thought he was a project player and others just felt the quarterback position was too risky to take a chance on a first-year starter. Whatever the reasoning, Mahomes dropped down fantasy football draft boards, and those who drafted him as QB15 got a great bargain. Mahomes ended the season as the first overall player in fantasy scoring.
Dak Prescott (2019)
ADP 127.2 (QB17)
2019 Season: QB2 (4 overall), 337.78 PPR fantasy points (21.1 points per game)
Prescott slid down draft boards during 2019 fantasy football drafts after tallying 17.9 points per game in 2016, 16.3 points per game in 2017, and 17.9 points per game in 2018. 2019 saw his points per game go up to 21.1. Amari Cooper came up big at wide receiver, going for 1,189 receiving yards on 79 receptions with eight touchdowns. Prescott was second in yards and fourth in touchdowns at the QB position, and he threw for 4,902 yards and 30 touchdowns while rushing 52 times for 277 yards and three scores.
Dak Prescott was the NFL's best deep-ball passer in 2019 (via@NextGenStats) https://t.co/wT3wOLISvZpic.twitter.com/AAPHW1LZtv
— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) May 22, 2020
The Cowboys quarterback ended the season as QB2 behind Lamar Jackson, who was also a great ADP value being taken as QB11 in 2019 fantasy drafts. Prescott finished his 2019 campaign as the fourth overall fantasy points scorer.
Ryan Tannehill (2020)
ADP 156.4 (QB20)
2020 Season: QB7 (9 overall), 344.36 PPR fantasy points (21.5 points per game)
2019’s Comeback Player of the Year ended his 2020 fantasy season as the QB7. The six quarterbacks who had a better fantasy year were Josh Allen (taken as QB11 in drafts), Aaron Rodgers (taken as QB10), Kyler Murray (taken as QB5), Patrick Mahomes (taken as QB1), Deshaun Watson (taken as QB6), and Russell Wilson (taken as QB4). Tannehill provided the most bang for your buck.
Top 5️⃣ Ryan Tannehill plays of 2020 🚗💨 @ryantannehill1
For more highlights download the Titans App 📲 pic.twitter.com/n60b0y3Mmg
— Tennessee Titans (@Titans) February 19, 2021
Those who passed on Tannehill in fantasy drafts were concerned because he’d never been a quarterback that impressed fantasy stat-wise. Lucky for Tannehill, getting a chance to play with A.J. Brown on the Titans helped. Brown had 1,075 receiving yards in 2020 to go along with 11 touchdowns. Tight end Jonnu Smith scored eight times while Corey Davis snagged five touchdowns. For the season, Tannehill completed 315 passes for 3,817 yards and 33 touchdowns. He additionally rushed 43 times for 266 and seven scores, proving he was a threat on the ground.
Deebo Samuel (2021)
ADP 89.8 (WR38)
2021 Season: WR3 (9 overall), 338.96 PPR fantasy points (21.2 points per game)
Samuel lit it up in 2021, catching 60 receptions for 892 yards and seven touchdowns. He had 37 rushing attempts for 225 yards and five touchdowns on the ground. Samuel finished his 2021 campaign as the WR3 in fantasy points, even though he was being drafted as WR38. The only receivers to score more fantasy points than Samuel in 2021 were Cooper Kupp (good value being drafted at WR16) and Davante Adams (drafted at WR1).
This catch & run by Deebo was insane 🔥😮💨!
Deebo kicked his 2021 season off with a bang. Despite Jimmy underthrowing this by a mile, Deebo found the ball & went on to score. #49ers #FTTB #Deebo pic.twitter.com/esX4ak8Gqt
— Draft Cooper DeJean (@49Immortalz) January 24, 2024
For some drafters, with Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle in the mix, there were just too many mouths to feed in San Francisco. Samuel had previously been the guy getting screen passes and negative yardage, so it’s easy to see why he wasn’t drafted high. Aiyuk and Kittle had been targeted heavily, but 2021 was Samuel’s time to shine.
Geno Smith (2022)
ADP 255.0 (QB30)
2022 Season: QB5 (13 overall), 303.88 PPR fantasy points (17.9 points per game)
No one could see 2022 being the season Smith stepped it up, but he was able to show he wasn’t a draft bust if you had him on your fantasy roster. With an ADP of 255, Smith often went undrafted in fantasy drafts. A few quarterbacks weren’t drafted as top-20 QBs but ended the season in the top 10. Not only did Smith do it, but Daniel Jones was ninth in fantasy points at quarterback while Jared Goff came in at No. 10. Smith finished his campaign as QB5, falling behind Patrick Mahomes (taken as QB3 in fantasy drafts), Josh Allen (taken as QB1), Jalen Hurts (taken as QB6), and Joe Burrow (taken as QB4).
Geno Smith has more passing touchdowns in 2022 than Jalen Hurts, Trey Lance, and Aaron Rodgers pic.twitter.com/iKGdsEft7u
— Underdog Fantasy (@UnderdogFantasy) September 13, 2022
2022’s Comeback Player of the Year completed 399 throws for 4,282 yards and 30 touchdowns and ran 68 times for 366 yards and a score. Those who passed on taking Smith often did so because he was considered an NFL draft bust, selected 39th overall by the Jets in 2013. Although he’ll probably never see a season like this again, his 2022 campaign was one to remember.
Puka Nacua (2023)
ADP 327.0 (WR105)
2023 Season: WR4 (10 overall), 298.5 PPR fantasy points (17.6 points per game)
The fifth-round rookie wideout had a coming-out party in 2023. He broke the record for most receptions in a season by a rookie, catching 105 balls and six touchdowns. His 105 catches dethroned Jaylen Waddle’s previous rookie high of 104 receptions. Nacua also broke Bill Groman’s rookie receiving yard record of 1,473, as the Rams youngster went for 1,486 yards.
Puka Nacua Walkoff Touchdown!
The Rams rookie is RIDICULOUS #RamsHouse pic.twitter.com/1WPeGOauvp
— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) October 1, 2023
One thing that helped Nacua’s season was that Cooper Kupp was hurt for the first four games. In his first NFL game, Nacua had 10 receptions for 119 yards and continued to shine throughout the season. Drafters who didn’t select Nacua did so for various reasons, partially because he was a rookie on a team with other playmakers, but also because of where he was selected in the NFL Draft. Those who had Nacua on their rosters in 2023 ended up with the WR4 who went as WR105 in fantasy drafts.
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