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Justin looks at two quarterback prospects for the 2024 NFL Draft and compares their upside. What are the outlooks for Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. in the NFL?
There are three names that stand out above the rest when talking about the upcoming quarterback class: Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Jayden Daniels. A fourth, J.J. McCarthy, is starting to get a lot of added attention and could wind up going in the top five as well.
But this is a very deep quarterback class. Those four aren't the only guys who could wind up as long-term NFL starters. Two Pac-12 rivals -- Oregon's Bo Nix and Washington's Michael Penix Jr. -- could see their names called as early as the first round, with both expected to be drafted at least before the second round ends. While these players have limitations that drop them lower than the other four, they still possess a ton of upside.
Let's compare Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. and figure out which is a better NFL prospect.
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Who is Bo Nix?
Nix has been around college football for a while now. He first appeared back in 2019 when he was Auburn's starting quarterback as a true freshman. That version of Nix was a lot different from the version of Nix we saw at Oregon over the last two seasons. He was a risk taker and he often struggled with his accuracy. As a freshman, Nix completed just 57.6% of his pass attempts for the Tigers.
Still, he led the Tigers to a 9-4 record in that first season, including wins over Oregon and Alabama. He threw for 16 touchdowns and six interceptions. However, Nix just seemed to stall out as far as development went. In 2020, he had 12 touchdowns and seven picks and once again failed to hit a 60% completion rate. In 2021, he played just 10 games before an injury ended his season, throwing 11 touchdowns and three interceptions. He completed a then-career-high 61.0% of his pass attempts.
Following that season, Nix transferred to Oregon, where he immediately took a major leap. In 2022, he completed 71.9% of his passes and threw 29 touchdowns. Then, in 2023, he had a full breakout, completing 77.4% of his pass attempts for 4,508 yards and 45 touchdowns. He was picked off just three times. Nix also ran for 20 touchdowns over his two seasons at Oregon.
The improvement in Nix's accuracy is the main reason that his NFL stock has risen so much. He showed great touch in 2023 with the Ducks. Add in that he has good speed and can make things happen with his legs, and you can see the makings of a professional quarterback here.
Play No. 3 @gregcosell and I discussed with Bo Nix: His 20-yard completion to Troy Franklin vs. Arizona State. Just a great touch and timing throw through progressions and options. pic.twitter.com/5SjgEpiI6M
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) March 28, 2024
The concern, though, is that Nix's huge improvement in accuracy came with him being asked to mostly operate in the short passing game. There are concerns about how well Nix processes the game when he's asked to stay in the pocket and work the ball down the field. The arm strength is there, but can Nix stand strong in the pocket and work through his reads when the plays start to break down?
Who is Michael Penix Jr.?
Like Nix, Penix Jr. has been around college football for a long time. He first played in 2018 at Indiana, spending four injury-plagued seasons with the Hoosiers. Penix never appeared in more than seven games with the team. He suffered two torn ACLs during his time in Bloomington.
Penix transferred to Washington before the 2022 season. Finally healthy, Penix saw his game explode, as he led FBS in passing yards per game in his first season with the Huskies. He completed 65.4% of his passes in two seasons at Washington, throwing 67 touchdowns and 9,544 yards in his 28 appearances with the team.
There's a lot to like in Penix's game. He pushes the ball down the field exceptionally well and might have the best deep-ball accuracy in this draft class. Unfortunately, that sometimes comes at the expense of accuracy in the short and intermediate game, as he can struggle at times to adjust the throws.
Michael Penix’s pro day is today, it’s throws like this one (against Texas) which puts him in the first round for me. pic.twitter.com/CDVuKMsjfG
— Mike Tannenbaum (@RealTannenbaum) March 28, 2024
Additionally, Penix isn't a scrambler. He isn't someone who extends plays with his legs or can be used on designed run plays. He'll need a team with a strong offensive line that can keep him from pacing too much pressure because he just never really showed at Washington that he can make things happen when the pocket breaks down. The multiple torn ACLs aren't a great thing to have on the resume, either, though past injuries don't necessarily mean that future injuries are likely.
Comparing Nix and Penix
While Nix and Penix took similar paths to where they're currently at, the two are very different quarterbacks.
Nix is an athletic player who can make throws in the short and medium games, but who comes with concerns about an ability to push the ball down the field. Penix is essentially the opposite, a player who stands in the pocket and can drop a 40-yard dime with ease, but who struggles to make smaller plays.
Most everybody I talk to has 4 tiers for this draft.
Day 1
1. Williams
2. Daniels/Maye/McCarthyDay 2
3. Nix/Penix/Rattler
Day 3
4. Anyone else
*Names listed alphabetically. https://t.co/8Xj8y2H9xU
— Benjamin Allbright (@AllbrightNFL) March 27, 2024
If this was the NFL of 10 to 15 years ago, I'd rate Penix's arm as being enough to put him ahead of Nix, but things have changed. Quarterbacks need to be able to use their legs to make things happen. Nix might not be in the same hemisphere as Penix when it comes to deep-ball accuracy, but he doesn't need to be. If opposing defenses want to crowd the box and force him to throw, I'm confident he can find openings there.
That's not to say Nix is going to be an elite NFL quarterback. He's got to take a leap with his processing to consistently beat NFL defenses. Still, his skill set feels better equipped for the NFL game than Penix's. Nix is easier to plug into an offense. With Penix, you need a few more things to go right in order to best utilize him -- a stronger offensive line and receivers who can catch the fastballs he'll be throwing.
However, if things go right for Penix, he might have the higher ceiling. That requires him to work on diversifying his throws more, but if he lands on a team with an offensive line capable of keeping defenders off him, he can push the ball deep as well as anyone.
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