RADIO
With the 2024 MLB season set to begin this week, late fantasy baseball drafts are constantly taking place. There is still a little bit of time to read up on draft sleepers, busts, and dart throws, so let's dive into three key players in this article.
Thairo Estrada and Bryan Reynolds have had plenty of fantasy value in the past, while Colt Keith has promising upside. All three are worth diving into for last-minute draft preparation.
Should you draft Keith, Estrada, or Reynolds in fantasy baseball? Read the draft recommendations and 2024 fantasy outlooks for each player below.
Colt Keith Fantasy Baseball Value
BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 266
Current ADP: ~pick 260
Analysis: Detroit Tigers infield prospect Colt Keith was arguably the minor league's best player in the 2023 season.
In his age-21 season, Keith made his presence felt right out of the gate, hitting .325 with 14 home runs, 18 doubles, two triples, and a .976 OPS across 59 games at Double-A Erie. He would follow that up with a .287 average alongside 13 HRs, 20 doubles, a triple, and a .890 OPS across 67 games and 301 trips to the plate at Triple-A Toledo. Despite his fantastic campaign, Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris did not pull the trigger on a promotion to the big leagues.
However, with holes at both second and third base, the two positions Keith can play, the Tigers have little choice but to take Keith north with them out of spring training. His defense will remain a work in progress but the 2020 fifth-round pick has forced his way into the big leagues with his bat. He is a dynasty league darling and a solid late-round look with second-base eligibility in redraft formats.
Thairo Estrada Fantasy Baseball Value
BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 124
Current ADP: ~pick 167
Analysis: San Francisco Giants infielder Thairo Estrada finished 2023 with a .271 batting average, 14 home runs, 49 RBI, 63 runs, and 23 stolen bases. His season was interrupted by injuries that limited him to 120 games, including a hand fracture that took him out of action for a month after getting hit by a pitch on July 3. Estrada's batting average was buoyed by a .331 BABIP and his average exit velocity of 85.9 mph ranked him in the fourth percentile of qualified major leaguers. His walk rate decreased from 6.1% in 2022 to 4.2%, putting him in the third percentile of that category.
SLAM 💥 pic.twitter.com/xo49KdS0zn
— SFGiants (@SFGiants) March 20, 2024
He is projected to hit second in the Giants' lineup in 2024 but he will not last long there if he cannot get on base. Another 20-steal season is in reach, and he has eligibility at three positions (2B, SS, and OF). While there are some warning signs with Estrada, he is valuable when comparing RotoBaller's rank to industry ADP.
Bryan Reynolds Fantasy Baseball Value
BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 76
Current ADP: ~83
Analysis: Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Bryan Reynolds isn't coming off of his best season, but the shine hasn't worn off yet. The 28-year-old saw his wRC+ drop to 110 last season from 124 in 2022 and 140 in 2021 but the fantasy production was there. He slugged 24 home runs and 31 doubles while stealing a career-high 12 bases and staying healthy enough to appear in 145 games for the second consecutive season. His wRC+ dip comes on the back of a decreased 8.3% BB%, more than 3% below his career-high 11.6% clip from 2021.
Bryan Reynolds is good at baseball. pic.twitter.com/swUUEy8ni8
— Pittsburgh Pirates (@Pirates) March 21, 2024
He also benefited from a .345 BABIP that season to hit .302, so it's unreasonable to expect Reynolds to reach that high again as he's settled into the .263 range in each of the last two seasons. He ranked in the 70th percentile or better in just about every offensive metric known to Statcast in 2023, just as he has in previous seasons. At this point, there's very little to doubt his consistency and he looks all the part of a top-100 pick in fantasy baseball drafts.
More Fantasy Baseball Draft Values and Sleepers
Tommy Pham - Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Pickups (Week 8)
BALLER MOVE: Add in Deeper Mixed Leagues ROSTERED IN: 7% of Leagues ANALYSIS: The Chicago White Sox have been hit hard by the injury bug thus far in 2024, which prompted them to go out and sign veteran outfielder Tommy Pham. Pham was inserted into the White Sox lineup on April 26 and has seen solid production... Read More
Michael Kopech - Closers and Saves Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Adds
BALLER MOVE: Add in 12+ Team Leagues ROSTERED IN: 25% of Leagues ANALYSIS: Michael Kopech may be the only truly defined closer on your waiver wire. The starter-turned-reliever has tallied two saves in the past two games by throwing two ⅓ shutout innings. On the season, he has a 3.66 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with... Read More
Trevor Megill - Closers and Saves Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Adds
BALLER MOVE: Add in 12+ Team Leagues ROSTERED IN: 35% of Leagues ANALYSIS: With All-Star closer Devin Williams (back) on the 60-day injured list, the Brewers have split ninth-inning duties among three relievers: Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe, and Joel Payamps. Currently, Payamps has the most out of the group with four saves, and Uribe and Megill... Read More
Christian Scott - Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Pickups (Week 8)
BALLER MOVE: Add in 12+ Team Leagues ROSTERED IN: 20% of Leagues ANALYSIS: After posting elite strikeout numbers at Triple-A this April, Christian Scott made his major league debut on May 4 against the Tampa Bay Rays. Scott looked strong as he tossed six ⅔ innings of one-run ball. He allowed five hits and one... Read More
Yennier Cano - Closers and Saves Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Adds
BALLER MOVE: Add in 12+ Team Leagues ROSTERED IN: 35% of Leagues ANALYSIS: Baltimore Orioles primary closer Craig Kimbrel has dealt with back soreness earlier in April and has not looked sharp since his return. Kimbrel holds a 13.50 ERA and 3.00 WHIP and was pulled from two consecutive save situations over his past three... Read More
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!
Check out RotoBaller's entire fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and sleepers list, updated daily!
