RADIO
It seems like it is said every year, but this year's NFL free-agency period might truly be the craziest one that the league has ever had. Superstars that have been ingrained as the face of their franchise will now be dressed in foreign colors. Players who have struggled are now in prime positions to dominate, and players who have felt unappreciated look to get a fresh start and make their mark on their new cities.
Despite all the chaos and the inevitable disappointment from fans as they watched their favorite players sign with a different team, many of these moves will increase the value of these players in fantasy football and make for a very exciting and unpredictable 2024 season.
So, let's take a look at the most impactful free-agency moves and how they will affect the players' value in fantasy football.
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Derrick Henry - RB, Baltimore Ravens
Tennessee Titan legend Derrick Henry has finally found a new team, and there is no better team that he could have gone to than the Baltimore Ravens. Henry just inked a two-year deal for $16 million with a maximum value of $20 million and $9 million guaranteed. This move finally allows the Ravens to put an end to their plagued running back rotation by cementing one of the most efficient running backs of this generation as their lead ball carrier.
Free-agent Derrick Henry is signing a two-year, $16 million deal worth up to $20 million, including $9 million fully guaranteed in the first year with the Baltimore Ravens, sources tell ESPN. pic.twitter.com/jYiY9118kR
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 12, 2024
Derrick Henry has scored at least 10 rushing touchdowns in each season since 2018, including his 2021 season where he only played in eight games due to injury, and that trend should continue behind the devastating rushing attack of the Ravens.
Last year, the Ravens led the league in rushing percentage (50.3% of plays) and rushing attempts (541) despite trying to become more pass-heavy under offensive coordinator Todd Monken, finished second in rushing touchdowns (26) and third in yards per carry (4.9).
Coming off of a down year, at least by Derrick Henry standards, he looks to reinsert his name among the game's elites despite entering his ninth season as a 30-year-old. Henry has been an outlier his entire career, so do not expect him to fall off a cliff anytime soon.
Gus Edwards scored 13 rushing touchdowns last year; that honestly seems like a floor for Henry. The Ravens are no stranger to the red zone and Lamar Jackson needs to take less punishment in order to extend his career, so scoring opportunities for Henry should be plentiful.
Until last season, Henry averaged 109.8 yards per game since he took the reigns in 2019, and that was with him being the only focal point of opposing defenses and consistently being among the leaders in percentage of carries facing eight-man boxes.
Now, Henry should see similar volume, but defenses need to prepare for Lamar Jackson and keep a spy on him at all times, which will open up bus lanes for Henry to run through. Breakout running back Keaton Mitchell is also likely to miss time early as he recovers from a late-season ACL tear, so expect the Ravens to lean on Henry early and often.
Henry is a rock-solid pick in the second round of redraft leagues and I would not hesitate to pull the trigger at the back of the first. He has a huge chip on his shoulder and I am certainly not going to be the one to doubt him again, because every time I do, he makes me look like a fool.
I also think tales of his decline are greatly exaggerated as just last season, at 245-plus pounds, he posted a top speed of 21.68 mph, which tied Tyreek Hill's second-fastest time and resulted in Henry being the sixth-fastest ball carrier all season. Did I mention that it happened in Week 18? Henry is just different, plain and simple. I implore you not to fade him again.
Saquon Barkley - RB, Philadelphia Eagles
Saquon Barkley signed with the Philadelphia Eagles for three years and $37 million with a max value of $46.7 million and $26 million fully guaranteed. It is a massive contract for a 27-year-old running back with an extensive injury history, but clearly, the Eagles believe he can regain his rookie form.
I am not going to lie, this one hurt. But this is not the time for me to whine about how he destroyed any legacy he had in New York and rejected a similar offer from the Giants last offseason. No, it is time to assess what this move means for his fantasy value in 2024. Objectively, Barkley is going to smash. Subjectively, Barkley is going to smash.
Former Giants RB Saquon Barkley reached agreement with the Philadelphia Eagles on a three-year, $37.75 million contract that could be worth up to $46.75M and includes $26M fully guaranteed at signing, per sources.
Barkley now beats the franchise tag number and has a maximum… pic.twitter.com/d2TnEWhaQ0
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 11, 2024
Barkley burst onto the NFL scene as a rookie with over 2,000 yards from scrimmage and 15 total touchdowns. He was widely regarded as the best running back prospect since Adrian Peterson, and he did not disappoint. However, a combination of injuries, atrocious offensive line play, and a weak supporting case ultimately made it impossible for Saquon to regain his elite status.
After posting an impressive 5.0 yards per carry as a rookie, Barkley has failed to reach 4.0 yards per carry in two of his last three seasons. Despite his visible decline over the past few seasons, Barkley finds himself in the best position he has ever been in with regard to potential fantasy success.
Now, he goes from a quarterback bust in Daniel Jones to an elite signal-caller in Jalen Hurts, and from the 29th-ranked offensive line to the first-ranked offensive line. Opponents had one objective when facing the Giants, stop Saquon Barkley.
This season, however, opponents will be tasked with stopping Hurts, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Barkley, which will make for a nightmarish who's who guessing game before the snap. This is sure to lead to more explosive runs for Barkley, and more production for your fantasy teams.
The only downside to Barkley in Philadelphia is that his touchdown numbers could take a drastic hit. Hurts is the preferred goal-line running back, and last season, D'Andre Swift only saw five rushing touchdowns because of it.
#Eagles C Jason Kelce on what he tells D'Andre Swift every time he gets tackled at the one-yard line.
"I'm so sorry, man. You know exactly what we're about to do." 😂😂
(via @newheightshow) https://t.co/DZfHkfemwa pic.twitter.com/RBxSrAHEdL
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) December 27, 2023
When it comes to Barkley, the first question is always "Can he stay healthy?" While it is a very valid question, fantasy analysts must assume health as most injuries are random and unpredictable. Thus, assuming Barkley can stay healthy, he has a floor of 1,000 yards and is a viable candidate to lead the league in rush yards behind that devastating offensive line.
I would draft Barkley at the top of the second round in redraft leagues; however, do not be surprised if he goes in the first round considering the hype behind Barkley with an elite offensive line on a high-scoring offense.
Josh Jacobs - RB, Green Bay Packers
Josh Jacobs signed a four-year deal with the Green Bay Packers for $48 million with only $12.5 million guaranteed. One thing is clear when it comes to Josh Jacobs signing with the Green Bay Packers, he is going to be force-fed the football until his eyes pop out (figuratively).
The only other running back on the roster that will take touches away from him is AJ Dillon, and let's face it, we have seen what Dillon is and no one is scared. Jacobs also has an opportunity, like Barkley, to finally be a complementary piece of an offense instead of the only weapon defenses were concerned about.
Green Bay Packers now have officially signed RB Josh Jacobs to a four-year contract that includes $12.5 million guaranteed.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 14, 2024
Since 2020, Jacobs trails only Derrick Henry for the most touches (1,240) and most carries (1,063) for all running backs, and there are no concerns about his durability as he played in at least 13 games every season of his career. Jacobs should see a resurgence in Green Bay with an upgraded supporting cast and an elite play-caller in Packers head coach Matt LaFleur.
He is unquestionably the lead back heading into the season, and he should finally see a decent role in the passing game as that role exclusively belonged to Jones, who signed a one-year deal with the Minnesota Vikings.
The fact that Jacobs was not utilized in the passing game very often with the Raiders is a mystery because he is a fully capable receiving back with sticky hands and an elite ability to generate yards after contact. Jacobs should also retain the red zone and goal-line work as well since Dillon was nothing short of abysmal in both areas, turning seven goal-line carries and 37 total touches into just two touchdowns. Jacobs, on the other hand, turned seven goal-line carries and 43 total red-zone touches into six touchdowns in 13 games.
The best part about Jacobs' new home is that his maddening fantasy inconsistency should come to an end. As the lead runner for the Raiders, Jacobs' fantasy value was directly correlated to the success of the team. If the Raiders were trailing, which was more often than not during Jacobs' tenure, his role was significantly reduced and altogether eliminated in blowout losses. This resulted in extreme volatility for Jacobs' fantasy managers despite deceitful end-of-year stats that were inflated by two or three blowup games.
Now, the Packers are well-coached and talented enough to stay in every game, and Jacobs' game-script dependency will likely stay behind in Las Vegas. There is no doubt that he will have plenty more scoring opportunities in Green Bay, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him set career highs in targets (64), receptions (54), and receiving yards (400) in Year 1.
I expect Jacobs to see between 18-22 touches per game and to operate as a low-end RB1 with top-three potential every week. He will be a target of mine in the third round of redraft leagues, though I expect him to firmly supplant himself as a second-round pick come draft season in August.
Marquise Brown - WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes finally has reliable speed on offense again, and wide receiver Marquise "Hollywood" Brown finally has an elite quarterback to maximize his devastating speed and separation. Brown inked a one-year deal worth $11 million to join the reigning back-to-back Super Bowl champions, and he could not have chosen a better destination to showcase his skills.
Green Bay Packers now have officially signed RB Josh Jacobs to a four-year contract that includes $12.5 million guaranteed.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 14, 2024
Brown has played with two excellent quarterbacks in Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray, but Jackson was never known for his accurate deep balls and Kyler Murray was either hurt or unable to scramble long enough to get the ball to Brown with any consistency.
Now, Brown gets to play with the best in the game, and arguably the most talented player to ever play the quarterback position. Travis Kelce will likely remain the focal point of the passing attack, and the emergence of Rashee Rice should result in a ton of one-on-one coverage for Brown and plenty of scoring opportunities.
Andy Reid has had to scale back the Chiefs offense these past few years without a dominant playmaker like Tyreek Hill, and as a result, we have seen Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Kadarius Toney attempt to fill that role and literally drop the ball time and time again.
Brown has also had to scale back what he is capable of due to the incompetency at quarterback he faced last season, where he saw a measly 5.7 yards per target (91st) and an abysmal 56.4% catchable target rate (96th), according to PlayerProfiler.
Two things are certain when it comes to Marquise Brown in Kansas City, we have yet to see what he is truly capable of and he will have every opportunity to showcase it behind the elite arm of Mahomes and the genius play-calling by Reid.
I fully expect Brown to be overdrafted due to the potential he has playing for the Chiefs, but I will be looking to pick him somewhere between Rounds 6-8 as a high-end WR3. While the potential of Hollywood with Mahomes is enticing, Rashee Rice is still the preferred wide receiver to roster in fantasy.
Calvin Ridley - WR, Tennessee Titans
The Tennessee Titans came out of nowhere at the start of the new league year to sign Calvin Ridley to a four-year deal worth up to $92 million and a massive $50 million guaranteed. While this may seem like an outrageous contract for Ridley, who underwhelmed in his first season back from a gambling suspension, the record-breaking $255.4 million salary cap is going to make these mega-deals commonplace.
I was under the impression that Ridley was waiting for the new league year to start so that he could re-sign with the Jaguars (re-signing, as opposed to signing an extension, would have allowed the Jaguars to keep their second-round pick), but the Titans simply made him an offer he could not refuse.
Calvin Ridley is signing with the Tennessee Titans: 4 years, 92M, $50M fully guaranteed
Deal Negotiated by David Mulugheta and Reza Hesam. pic.twitter.com/vhn7URnCKR
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 13, 2024
The Titans are ready for a complete shift in offensive philosophy due to the departure of former head coach Mike Vrabel and future Hall of Fame running back Derrick Henry. What was once a run-dominant attack looks to become a more pass-heavy approach under new head coach Brian Callahan, the former offensive coordinator for Joe Burrow in Cincinnati, and the hopeful face of the franchise quarterback, Will Levis.
The Titans were dead last in receptions (304), tied with the Ravens for the second-fewest pass attempts (494), and were ahead of only the Browns, Jets, and Panthers in completion percentage (61.5%).
Ridley joins a depleted wide receiver corps that consisted of mainly DeAndre Hopkins and disappointing former first-round pick, Treylon Burks. The Titans need to know if Levis can be "the guy" for them going forward so they went out and got him weapons.
I am expecting a three-player passing attack with Hopkins, tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo, and Ridley, with the latter likely to see an even share of targets with Hopkins. I would love to draft either one of them as a WR3, but nothing higher as it is unlikely that they both go off in the same week.
Kirk Cousins - QB, Atlanta Falcons
Rejoice. Tight end Kyle Pitts finally has a great quarterback to get him the ball now that Kirk Cousins has inked a four-year deal with the Atlanta Falcons worth up to $180 million with $100 million fully guaranteed. The Falcons were desperate for good quarterback play last season, and fortunately for Cousins, they did not find any.
Compensation update: Falcons are giving QB Kirk Cousins a four-year, $180 million deal including $100 million guaranteed, per source. It’s $45 million per average per year.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 11, 2024
The Falcons had the fourth-fewest number of completions (327), the fifth-lowest completion percentage (61.7%), and the fifth-most interceptions (17). They also had the fewest number of pass attempts to wide receivers in the league (209), and despite all this, they still had a shot to win their division in the final week of the season. It was clear to everyone that if the Falcons could acquire a decent quarterback, they would be a perennial playoff team. Enter Cousins.
Atlanta is loaded with talent on offense with Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson, and the sky is the limit now that they all have a great quarterback to get them the ball on time and in space. Cousins is an elite passer when it comes to throwing with anticipation over the middle and both Pitts and London know how to manipulate defenders to give their quarterback open windows. Cousins will not miss those windows.
Additionally, the Falcons finally parted ways with the fantasy Grim Reaper Arthur Smith, who for whatever reason never wanted to put the ball in the hands of his most talented players. Now, the team has replaced Smith with Raheem Morris, who has made Zac Robinson his offensive coordinator. Robinson is a descendant of the Sean McVay coaching tree, operating as the Rams assistant quarterbacks coach in 2019 until his promotion to quarterbacks coach in 2022, so this scheme is going to be quarterback-friendly with an emphasis on utilizing the best players to create devastating mismatches.
We can easily see Cousins making Pitts and London 1,000-yard receivers, and his addition also bumps up Bijan Robinson's value as Cousins is not shy to pull the trigger on the checkdown pass to the running back. Cousins can be drafted as a back-end QB1 and is an excellent safe option to pair with a volatile player if you wait on the position.
For example, Cousins would be an ideal quarterback to pair with Caleb Williams or Kyler Murray. Cousins has not been an exciting name over his career for fantasy purposes, but I am very excited about what he brings to his offense.
Aaron Jones - RB, Minnesota Vikings
Aaron Jones has pulled a Saquon Barkley and left his team for their bitter rival. The Green Bay Packers decided to go with Josh Jacobs as their lead rusher after they could not reach an agreement with Jones, which led to Jones becoming a free agent.
He signed a one-year deal worth $7 million with the Minnesota Vikings, and will immediately step into a featured role. The Vikings were pleased with the development of Ty Chandler last year, but Jones is better than Chandler in every facet of the game, and the Vikings offense is immediately more dynamic.
Former Packers RB Aaron Jones intends to sign with the Vikings, as @DMRussini reported.
It is a one-year, $7 million deal that his agents Drew Rosenhaus and Ryan Matha now have confirmed. pic.twitter.com/4LFXkIoI7b
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 12, 2024
The Vikings saw what they could have with Jones from their years with Dalvin Cook as the two are very similar players. Like Cook, Jones is an explosive runner with elite vision and elusiveness, and he excels as a pass-catcher out of the backfield. The offense was clearly missing another gear last season as it tried to piece together an adequate running game with Alexander Mattison, and now Jones gets to fill the void.
The totality of the Vikings' offensive outlook cannot be known until the NFL Draft because the team is currently operating with Sam Darnold as its starting quarterback and has not shied away from the fact that it is trying to move up for a quarterback in the upcoming draft.
Regardless, Jones should be a focal point of the offense with anyone under center since he will either be heavily used to reduce the amount of time Darnold has to drop back, or he will be heavily used to complement a rookie quarterback and take pressure off of him on early downs.
Jones should also see plenty of running room as defenses will have their hands full trying to scheme for Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson when he returns from his ACL injury. Head coach Kevin O'Connell is an elite play-caller, and he impressed everyone around the league with the job he was able to do last season without Justin Jefferson and Kirk Cousins for most of it.
He will utilize Jones' strengths and place him in advantageous matchups, and I would be comfortable with Jones as a low-end RB1 with upside depending on the quarterback under center in Week 1.
Joe Mixon - RB, Houston Texans
The Texans are making waves in the AFC and are in a prime position to load up on defensive talent while their top playmakers are on their rookie deals. Quarterback C.J. Stroud burst onto the scene and set records on his way to leading the Texans to the playoffs in what would be his Rookie of the Year campaign. Wide receivers Nico Collins and Tank Dell have already proven that they can be elite playmakers for their quarterback. The only element missing was an efficient running game.
The Texans traded with the Cincinnati Bengals to acquire running back Joe Mixon to plug the holes on offense, and while he has not been uber-efficient in his career, he has been extremely durable and successful at the goal line. The team was excited about sophomore runner Dameon Pierce heading into the 2023 season after a breakout-lite in his rookie year, but he has disappointed at every turn. He was stuffed at the goal line repeatedly and could not seem to gain any momentum, and by midseason, he lost his job to Devin Singletary.
The Texans had seen enough, and given the weakness of the incoming rookie running back class, they immediately upgraded their backfield with the addition of Mixon.
The beauty behind Mixon's landing spot is that he should be relied on heavily on all three downs, and he is a decent enough pass-catcher to make him a weekly RB2 in PPR leagues, as evidenced by back-to-back seasons of at least 50 receptions. The Texans offense should rarely be trailing given the explosive weapons and elite signal-caller, and the genius defensive mind of head coach DeMeco Ryans should keep them in even the toughest games.
This will make it a very rare occurrence that Mixon is phased out of an offensive game plan due to game script, and should give him a relatively safe weekly floor in fantasy.
Mixon is not an elite player by any stretch, and he has been largely volume dependent due to his poor efficiency, but that volume is not going anywhere. Despite his flaws, he is still better than Devin Singletary and Dameon Pierce.
Volume and scoring opportunity are king when it comes to predicting running back success in fantasy football and you can count on Mixon to see plenty of both. I will be looking for Mixon between the fourth and sixth rounds as a high-floor RB2.
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