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Every fantasy baseball manager wants to be the one to uncover that hidden gem that fell through the cracks of their draft. Look no further than Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams from fantasy football this past season. Considering the draft capital required to roster them -- or lack thereof -- they presented more value than just about anyone in 2023.
Fantasy baseball is no different. Think of names like Kyle Bradish, Braxton Garrett, and Michael Wacha from a year ago. In fact, fantasy baseball will offer even more value options among undrafted players when you consider the larger rosters and just how many more fantasy-relevant players there are than football or basketball. We all want a piece of that action, but how do we get ahead of the pack before the value emerges from the shadows?
This year is especially interesting because so many high-profile names with proven resumes are going undrafted. Let's explore some household names who have been fantasy stars before and how they could spike for a top-25 season in 2024. Since prospects can attain top-25 numbers on limited sample sizes depending on when they're called up, let's stick to players who will be on Opening Day rosters to keep things simple. RotoBaller rankings are accurate as of March.
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Chris Paddack, Minnesota Twins
RotoBaller Ranking: 400
I may have a personal bias against Chris Paddack for his 2019 beef with Pete Alonso, but sometimes you can't help but pull for a guy coming off Tommy John surgery. Most hurlers lose velocity following this procedure, but Paddack's fastball actually topped out at 99 mph during a September 26 appearance for the first time since his Double-A days. Woah.
Chris Paddack hit 99 mph last night for the first time in his MLB career. The last time he exceeded 98.5 mph was in Double-A back in 2018 just once.
— Aram Leighton (@AramLeighton8) September 27, 2023
Although Paddack gave up three runs in five innings upon his return, he gave the Minnesota Twins some good work with 3 2/3 one-hit frames and six strikeouts during the postseason. While we can't possibly expect him to throw 99 mph consistently if he wants to stay healthy, perhaps we can meet in the middle on his average heater velocity from 2022 (93.0) and settle somewhere in the mid-90s? This is a player already with an elite 4.9% walk rate for his career and great extension on his pitches with a towering 6-foot-5 frame.
Minnesota lost three starters -- Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, and Tyler Mahle -- this past offseason, so Paddack is cemented in the rotation. We're not expecting Paddack to turn into Tyler Glasnow or even replicate his rookie-year success, but if the 28-year-old right-hander comes up to the mound throwing gas this season at a solid ballpark for pitchers, there's no reason Paddack can't be a difference maker in fantasy. If he gets hurt again, so what, we didn't sink any draft capital into him.
Kutter Crawford, Boston Red Sox
RotoBaller Ranking: 289
The Boston Red Sox were forced to turn to Kutter Crawford as a starter in 2023 with Chris Sale and James Paxton missing various intervals of time, but now both of the latter names are out of the mix altogether. Though there were some bumps in the road, Crawford handled a career-high workload fairly well with a 4.04 ERA (3.83 FIP), 1.10 WHIP, and 135:36 K:BB over 129 1/3 innings. He should be fully stretched out for 2024.
Although Crawford's four-seamer averaged out under 94 mph, it was still his best pitch in terms of run value (nine). That might be because he wields a six-pitch repertoire to compensate for the lack of blow-away stuff, which helped fool the opposition for a strong 31.9% chase rate. That might also mean there's room for growth in his 25.6% strikeout rate, which was still solid for an arm who walked batters only 6.8% of the time. That's not the only area of his game with room for improvement.
The 3.25 xERA and .208 xBA are the obvious eye-catchers, but a lot of that may have had to do with Crawford's presence at a hitter's park, which unfortunately isn't going to change. Crawford's 6.00 ERA at Fenway Park paled in comparison to a 2.49 ERA on the road. He'll need to shore up on that for any chance of finishing as a top-25 fantasy pitcher, and while he has both Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock fighting for back-end rotation spots, there's plenty to sink our teeth into here.
Manager Alex Cora said on February 24 that Crawford is "in the lead" in this regard as well, and the 27-year-old's fastball looked good during his spring training debut.
Kutter Crawford tjStuff+ from today
Kutter's 4-Seam graded out really well today, and for good reason. It averaged 93.5 mph with 20.4" iVB (+1.4" from 2023)
That iVB would rank him at #1 in MLB in 2023 (amongst Starters) pic.twitter.com/oHga3f9LVQ
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) February 27, 2024
Luis Severino, New York Mets
RotoBaller Ranking: 326
Not much went right for oft-injured former New York Yankees ace Luis Severino in 2023. Starting the year on the injured list with a strained right lat stemming from the season prior, his campaign completely derailed following two encouraging May appearances. After dragging a 7.38 ERA across his final 78 innings, a frustrated Severino's year mercifully ended after exiting with an upper-body injury in his Yankees finale. Yikes.
Severino gets a chance at a fresh start, however, with a trip across the subway in Queens for 2024. Let's start with the good: the 30-year-old's fastball velocity (96.4 mph) offered top-tier material, but he just couldn't find any luck with his arsenal after his four-seamer failed him. As for the bad, well, just see the icy shade of blue for yourself if you can stomach it.
However, if the velocity is still there, we're probably not dealing with a foundational issue here. That probably means Sevy just has to make a few tweaks under the hood for better results, and Citi Field's spacious dimensions could be just what the doctor ordered for someone who got hit so hard. Free passes (8.2% BB rate) weren't a glaring problem for the hard-throwing right-hander, but he just lacked command of his five pitches. For what it's worth, he looked more in control during his Mets debut appearance.
You’re telling me Luis Severino is trying out Nestor Cortes-esque pauses like this in Spring Training and then gassing 98?
Gives you a good idea of the headspace Severino is in right now, a confident one.
If tipping is his biggest remaining problem, Severino will be just fine. https://t.co/72nNLGRqqc pic.twitter.com/nqMJVY7AOG
— Dan Bartels (@DanBartels2) March 2, 2024
With No. 1 starter Kodai Senga on the shelf to start the year, the Mets are going to hope some semblance of the former All-Star and Cy Young candidate once upon a time shows up in 2024. Don't expect Severino to act as a frontline starter, but over 2021 and 2022 post-Tommy John surgery, he recorded a 3.00 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 120:31 K:BB through 108 frames. Let's hope 2023 was just a blip on the radar due to the late start.
Tyler Wells, Baltimore Orioles
RotoBaller Ranking: 319
A 2016 15th-round pick, Tyler Wells emerged as a revelation for the Baltimore Orioles and a first-half fantasy hero in 2023. Wells produced a rock-solid 3.18 ERA and 103:24 K:BB through his opening 18 appearances, but lying underneath that prosperity were 21 home runs and a 4.61 FIP. Those red flags would eventually rear their ugly heads, as Wells sacrificed 11 runs in the following nine frames and was -- perhaps unfairly -- demoted to Double-A as a result.
Upon his late-September recall, however, Wells delivered 8 1/3 scoreless innings out of the fatigued O's bullpen, including the postseason. With Kyle Gibson and Jack Flaherty walking away in free agency, Wells should encounter greater job security in 2024. He might only be a No. 4 or No. 5 starter, and we'd like greater extension for a bit more deception out of a 6-foot-8 hurler who doesn't throw hard. However, Wells has enough going for him outside of his fastball to feel comfortable about him maintaining an above-average K rate.
The 29-year-old righty's .217 xBA ranked in the top-20 percent of baseball, with each of his five weapons yielding a .217 BA or better. Baltimore is going to need Wells early with Kyle Bradish out of action to begin 2024, and the former is off on the right foot this spring.
Tyler Wells puts up a clean first spring outing against the Braves. His line:
2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 SO, 3 GO including a 3-6-3 DP play
— Matt Weyrich (@ByMattWeyrich) March 1, 2024
Jon Gray, Texas Rangers
RotoBaller Ranking: 302
After being victimized by Coors Field's atmosphere, Jon Gray has shown at times with the Texas Rangers why the Colorado Rockies spent the No. 3 overall pick in the 2013 MLB Draft on him. Gray never found much success in the Mile High City, but his solid second half during his Rangers debut campaign in 2022 carried into 2023, posting a 2.32 ERA through his first 12 starts. A 4.15 FIP eventually came back to haunt the veteran, however, as he logged a 5.70 ERA over his final 17 appearances.
Gray picked up the win in Game 3 of the World Series with three one-hit relief innings, though. Texas is going to need him to perform as a frontline starter with Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer both out until the second half of 2024 at least, but he's been one of the most inconsistent pitchers in baseball over the years. Here's the thing though, Gray's slider was absolutely filthy (99th-percentile run value), and he throws pretty hard with an average velocity of 95.7 mph.
The problem is that his four-seamer was one of the worst offerings in the majors with a run value of -20. Jeez.
Considering his fastball has never been particularly effective, there's probably a shorter fantasy ceiling than one would like, despite his wicked breaking ball. Gray throws hard enough to hope that his heater can produce modest results and increase his punchout rate to a decent level. As long as Gray pitches in his part, he should get plenty of run support from a Rangers offense that led the American League with 5.4 runs per game last season to get the necessary wins for any kind of top-25 campaign.
Trevor Rogers, Miami Marlins
RotoBaller Ranking: 388
It seems like Trevor Rogers' breakout rookie campaign was a long, long time ago. Since being an All-Star in 2021, the 26-year-old southpaw holds a 5.26 ERA across 125 innings. He was a big-time post-hype sleeper for 2023, but a strained left biceps had other plans, costing Rogers all but four April starts. It's especially unfortunate, because even though his velocity was down, Rogers may have been on course for a bounce-back year.
The sample sizes are surely small, but it's pretty impressive to see what his numbers yielded despite the decreased pitch speed. Even with Sandy Alcantara out for the year, former top prospect Sixto Sanchez is perhaps waiting in the bullpen wings for a chance as a starter. With a clean bill of health entering 2024, let's call Rogers a post-post-hype sleeper.
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