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2024 NFL Outlook - Top Offensive Rookie of the Year Candidates

Caleb Williams - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers

Now that the 2024 NFL Draft is behind us, everyone has had an opportunity to get excited about their favorite team's new players and we start anticipating their rookie seasons. The draft was quite heavy with offensive players at the top -- 25 of the first 34 picks play on the offensive side of the ball. Historical precedent would suggest one of those 25 will win the 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year, with 44 of the previous 57 winners being drafted within the first 34 picks of the draft.

Of those 25 offensive players taken in the first 34 picks, 16 are skill players, so the focus on prognosticating the award will likely be centered around those. Some are longer shots at taking the award than others. For example, the maligned pick of Michael Penix Jr. will need a significant contextual change in Atlanta to be seriously considered for the award. While someone like Rome Odunze, despite being immensely talented, suffers from being on the same team as fellow skilled wide receivers like DJ Moore and Keenan Allen as well as the much more hyped rookie Caleb Williams throwing him the ball.

As of writing this piece, DraftKings Sportsbook seems to have eight front-runners for the OROY award, with all other rookies' betting odds at +2500 or worse. Below, I will outline these players and what needs to happen for them to take the lead in the award race, with the players ranked from least likely to most likely according to the betting market.

Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers won two writing awards and received 12 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. A big congrats to our very own Byron Lindeque (Golf) and Jordan McAbee (NASCAR) for both winning Writer Of The Year awards! Be sure to follow RotoBaller's analysis and advice all year long, and win more. Win More With RotoBaller!

 

Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots: +1800

Why he would win: The new-look Patriots have moved on from Bill Belichick and Mac Jones and replaced them with rookie head coach Jerod Mayo and rookie QB Maye. The Patriots roster is well below average, which could help Maye get volume statistics as they may need to rely on his passing and mobility in each game to be competitive. New Patriots offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt moved on from the Cleveland Browns, where he helped orchestrate Joe Flacco's 2023 Comeback Player of the Year resurgence. If the Patriots surpass expectations this season, Maye will have the lion's share of the credit for the change à la C.J. Stroud with the Houston Texans last season.

Why he wouldn't win: New England has one of the worst groups of skill position help surrounding Maye, with the WR room being highlighted by JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kendrick Bourne, K.J. Osborn, and rookie Ja'Lynn Polk. Offensive coordinator Van Pelt has a very limited history of play-calling, so data is limited about his efficacy in that realm. Betting markets suggest the Patriots will have a bottom-two record in the NFL -- a quarterback has only won the OROY Award with a team having fewer than seven wins once since 2012.

 

Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos: +1600

Why he would win: Head coach Sean Payton improved Russell Wilson last season and helped Drew Brees become a perennial 5,000-yard passer in New Orleans. Payton's offensive mind is one of the best for a young QB to learn from, and Nix could benefit from the brain of his new coach. Nix thrived in an offense in Oregon that relied on getting receivers the ball in the short- or mid-range and in open space while allowing them to get yards after the catch. The 2023 Broncos were bottom three in completed air yards per completion and top three in yards after catch per completion as well, matching Nix with the style of play that made him a Heisman contender.

Why he wouldn't win: Nix is a developmental project that could flourish or flounder in his rookie season. His college tape is filled with making not-so-difficult passes and screens to fast receivers that can be snuffed out with relative ease at the NFL level. Nix's physical tools are not impressive and he often struggled when the play would break down in college. While Payton is a great coach to learn under, Nix must show more consistency in the medium-to-long-range passing game to crack the top of the OROY rankings.

 

Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs: +1600

Why he would win: Worthy will have Patrick Mahomes throwing the ball to him. There is some powerful uncertainty surrounding the wide receiver room in Kansas City, with the team waiting on the punishment of Rashee Rice for various felony charges. Kansas City, coming off of back-to-back championships, will be on the radar every week, giving Worthy a national platform to showcase his speed and athleticism when paired with Mahomes' arm. The team is high on Worthy as well, as it traded up to get him in the first round of the draft this offseason.

Why he wouldn't win: The Chiefs like to spread the ball around in the passing game -- eight players had at least 38 targets for Kansas City last season, tied for the league lead with the New England Patriots. Kansas City has spent a first- or second-round draft pick on a WR three previous times since 2019, and only Rice received a vote for OROY. Kansas City still has two pass-catchers ahead of Worthy to start the season, with Travis Kelce and newly signed Marquise Brown taking a fair amount of targets in the passing game. If Rice is suspended for less than the full season, the Chiefs will try to get him involved with the offense when he gets back, potentially hitting Worthy's production and leading to a "too many cooks in the kitchen" situation.

 

Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants: +1400

Why he would win: Nabers is in a premium position to amass volume in New York, with relatively limited competition among pass-catchers. With Saquon Barkley leaving in free agency and Darren Waller possibly retiring, Nabers projects to take the chunk of the potentially 134 missing targets. He is an incredibly talented receiver with big-play potential, and with the Giants taking him as early as they did, they will find a way to manufacture touches for the speedy rookie. Nabers should complement the Giants' offense nicely, as he possesses skill in the deep passing game that other receivers on the team do not have.

Why he wouldn't win: Daniel Jones is his quarterback, which places a significantly lower ceiling on his potential in his first season. Only six wide receivers have won OROY over the last 30 years with an average stat line of 81 receptions for 1,224 yards and 10 touchdowns. With Jones as the quarterback, no Giants wide receiver had reached 70 receptions, 800 yards, or nine touchdowns in any season. Nabers is the best bet to surpass those numbers but Jones has not been proven to sustain elite production among his receivers. With limited options in the passing game, Nabers may be schemed out by opposing defenses.

J.J. McCarthy, QB, Minnesota Vikings: +800

Why he would win: McCarthy landed in Minnesota during the draft, one of the best situations a quarterback can land in. With excellent pass-catchers in Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, and Jordan Addison, a vastly improved offensive line protecting him, and Aaron Jones helping out in the running game, McCarthy is uniquely positioned for success. The Vikings loved McCarthy enough that they traded up one space to prevent anyone else from getting the Wolverine, and his solid skill set of top-notch mid-field passing and play-action plays into Minnesota's offensive scheme quite well.

Why he wouldn't win: The Vikings signed Sam Darnold to a $10 million contract, currently the 23rd-highest-paid quarterback for 2024. They spent that money to have insurance to protect McCarthy and ease him into the NFL, which is a smart move for the franchise but potentially bad for McCarthy's OROY chances. Head coach Kevin O'Connell had recently stated he would like to see a natural progression from their rookie quarterback before giving him the starting job, suggesting patience for McCarthy in 2024. McCarthy was not needed much in college, so there are questions about his ability to handle an NFL offense, and he has a lot of variance in his potential rookie season.

 

Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders: +650

Why he would win: The Washington colors, instinctual running skills, and long arm sure bring to mind Robert Griffin III and his electric OROY season. Daniels brings the type of prolific playmaking ability that can break a game wide open, as he can throw as deep as most quarterbacks and brings a running game with few peers. The Commanders changed offensive coordinators when they upended their coaching staff, replacing Eric Bieniemy with Kliff Kingsbury. Kingsbury developed Kyler Murray in Arizona, helping the dual-threat Cardinal become OROY in 2019, and will undoubtedly take what worked with Murray to help develop Daniels. Washington has decent support on the offensive side of the ball as well, with Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Brian Robinson Jr. providing support for the rookie.

Why he wouldn't win: Washington is projected to have a losing record in 2024, which hinders a quarterback's opportunity to win OROY. Daniels possesses a slight frame, stretching his 210 pounds into a 6-foot-4 body, which could put him in a uniquely vulnerable position when he inevitably scrambles into trouble. He will need to work on extending pass plays with his legs rather than looking to run and opening himself up to NFL hits. Daniels only has one truly great season in five years of playing college football, and that was with elite offensive skill players.

 

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals: +650

Why he would win: Imagine if the argument for Nabers above could be copied and pasted here, only with a slightly superior skill profile and a much better quarterback throwing him the football. This is why Harrison can win the OROY Award. Harrison will join a Cardinals team as the best wide receiver the team has had since DeAndre Hopkins, who quarterback Kyler Murray supported with a 1,400-yard receiving season in their first season together. Three of the top-five most targeted receivers on the Cardinals last season (Marquise Brown, Rondale Moore, and Zach Ertz) are off the team in 2024, opening up 206 targets to be spread around the team. Harrison's speed, hands, and route-running ability should give him at least half of those targets.

Why he wouldn't win: Harrison having a monster season would not guarantee him an OROY Award, and certainly wouldn't if a rookie quarterback has an incredible 2024 season. A.J. Brown (2019), Justin Jefferson (2020), and Puka Nacua (2023) all had incredible rookie campaigns and were overshadowed by quarterbacks Murray, Justin Herbert, and Stroud. If one of the quarterbacks on this list performs up to or surpass expectations, Harrison would likely have to enjoy second place in the award race.

Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears: +175

Why he would win: Because, yes. Williams is one of the most talented quarterback prospects in a long while, blending an ability to perform well within the pocket and an innate ability to perform well out of structure. The Bears had a middling team last season but due to a trade with the Carolina Panthers a year ago, they secured the first overall pick in the 2024 draft and snagged their QB of the future. Williams will not have to perform on his own in the offense, either, as Chicago added wide receivers DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze, as well as running back D'Andre Swift, over the past 14 months. Williams leading the Bears to the playoffs would not be a terrible surprise, given their immense talent on the offensive side of the ball, further boosting his chances.

Why he wouldn't win: It could legitimately take an otherworldly, potentially record-setting performance from one other rookie combined with a subpar performance from Williams to wrestle the award away from him. We've seen this before -- in 2021, Trevor Lawrence was a fairly significant preseason favorite to win OROY, but a disastrous 3-14 season ended his campaign. It's difficult to imagine the Bears (who finished the season 7-10 last year) to have the floor fall from under them, but stranger things have happened.



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