Predicting The 12-Team Playoff Bracket: 2024 College Football

January 25, 2024

Justin's playoff predictions for the 2024 college football season. Which 12 teams are the early favorites to make the expanded CFP field?

The four-team playoff is over! 2024 brings about a new era of college football with a 12-team playoff field, featuring four byes and enough teams to end some of the controversy about who gets in. Arguing that the 13th-ranked team should have been in likely won't be as divisive as arguing the fifth-ranked team should have been in.

There's one caveat here: the demise of the Pac-12 throws some confusion into how automatic qualifying will work. It was supposed to be the top six conference champions, but that now would mean two G5 champs would get in. I have to imagine that gets revisited before next season, so I'm only going with the top five conference champions here. If the system doesn't change, sub out my lowest-ranked at-large team and pretend I had Conference USA champions Liberty there instead.

Let's predict what the 12-team playoff bracket will look like in 2024.

The Automatic Qualifiers

Georgia: SEC Champion

The Bulldogs missed the playoffs last season thanks to a poorly timed loss to Alabama in the SEC title game. But with the Crimson Tide entering a retooling period after the retirement of head coach Nick Saban, I just don't see anything standing in Georgia's way. Sure, they've got a really tough schedule, facing Alabama, Texas, and Ole Miss all on the road plus an early-season bout against Clemson, but the Bulldogs just need to go 3-1 there to end up as the favorite for the No. 1 seed. Next season just doesn't look like a year where we get an undefeated team due to all the changes of realignment.

Quarterback Carson Beck leads a roster that's filled with talent on both ends of the field. Sure, some key players graduated or left for the NFL, but that happens every year and Kirby Smart's team just keeps on trucking. Don't expect 2024 to be any different.

Oregon: Big Ten Champion

The days of Michigan and Ohio State taking turns winning the Big Ten might be over as the conference added some heavy hitters from the old Pac-12. One of those teams, Oregon, is my pick to take home the conference title in 2024.

Bo Nix is gone, but the Ducks offense will reload with Dillon Gabriel, who comes over after throwing for 3,660 yards and 30 touchdowns at Oklahoma last season. He should keep this offense humming. The Ducks get Ohio State at home, so really the biggest test comes on November 2, when the team travels to Ann Arbor to face Michigan.

Utah: Big 12 Champion

Another former Pac-12 school in a new conference that wins that conference in year one? Yes. This time, we've got Utah coming out ahead in the Big 12.

The Utes went 8-5 last season, surviving a year where quarterback Cam Rising missed the entire season. Rising is set to be back in 2024, something that can help take this Utes team to new heights. Utah's got a pretty easy schedule next year as well, as they avoid Kansas, Kansas State, and West Virginia. This sets up perfectly for a Utah Big 12 title.

Clemson: ACC Champion

2023 wasn't a great year for Clemson, but the Tigers won five in a row to end the year. The ACC will be tough next year, but if Cade Klubnik can take the next step as a quarterback, this program should be back in the playoff battle. An early meeting with Georgia will be a tough test, but an 0-1 start shouldn't derail this team, especially with them getting to play Louisville and NC State at home.

Boise State: Mountain West Champion

Boise State went 8-6 this season, but a lot of those losses came early in the season. The team went 4-1 to end the year, including a win over UNLV in the MWC Championship Game. Star running back Ashton Jeanty will be back next season for the Broncos, which should help make this one of the nation's best offenses. Having to play Oregon, Oregon State, and Washington State is a gauntlet, but the latter two won't be as good as they were in 2023, and wins in one or two of those games would be huge for this team's resume.

At Large Bids

Texas

Moving to the SEC will make it tougher for the Longhorns to win, but this is still an extremely talented team. Quinn Ewers should be one of the nation's top quarterbacks and the addition of wide receiver Matthew Golden from Houston is going to be one of the best portal moves in the nation.

Alabama

Nick Saban might be gone, but the Tide bring back quarterback Jalen Milroe. New head coach Kalen DeBoer knows how to win at any level, though the SEC will be his biggest test ever. Still, Alabama is too talented to miss the 12-team playoff.

Ohio State

Will Howard takes over at quarterback for the Buckeyes this year. Will he be the one who gets the Buckeyes over the hump? We'll see, but one thing's certain: Howard's really good. He just has to hope that OSU can replace a huge outflux of wide receiver talent.

Ole Miss

Quarterback Jaxson Dart is back. Wide receiver Tre Harris is back. Ole Miss is going to be a lot of fun in 2024, and the team doesn't have to play Texas or Alabama. They also get Georgia and Oklahoma at home. As far as an SEC schedule goes, Ole Miss has a best-case scenario next season.

Notre Dame

I love what the Irish did in the transfer portal, grabbing Duke quarterback Riley Leonard and FIU wide receiver Kris Mitchell. With Mike Denbrock coming over from LSU to take over as Notre Dame's offensive coordinator, this should be an explosive team. It's also worth noting that the team doesn't have the toughest schedule next season, with games against Louisville and USC being the only real tough tests.

Michigan

Michigan's got to figure out how to replace J.J. McCarthy and Blake Corum and could still lose head coach Jim Harbaugh to the NFL, so let's consider this spot to be tentative right now. If Harbaugh departs, I could see this team dropping out of the playoff hunt with someone like Penn State or Missouri taking their spot.

Kansas State

Can the Big 12 get two playoff teams this year? I think so, and I think Kansas State is the second one. The Wildcats have an exciting quarterback, Avery Johnson, taking over, and he can make an impact in multiple facets of the game. All four losses last year were close and in 2024, they don't play Big 12 favorite Utah during the regular season. There's a decent chance this team is undefeated heading into the Big 12 title game, which I'd predict would be a loss to the Utes.

Final Projected Seeding

1. Georgia
2. Oregon
3. Texas
4. Utah
5. Clemson
6. Alabama
7. Ohio State
8. Ole Miss
9. Notre Dame
10. Michigan
11. Kansas State
12. Boise State

What's a playoff without some controversy? Most predictions seem to think that the top four seeds will go to the top four conference champions, but this is the CFP we're talking about. I can see ACC champ Clemson dropping a couple of games and Texas having a strong campaign to get one of those four bye games. The ACC should be better in 2024, but it's probably still the weakest of the major conferences, so that should be factored into seeding projections.

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