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RotoBaller's NHL Premium Picks and Analysis for the DFS slate on FanDuel and DraftKings on January 9, 2024.
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It’s Tuesday, which means DraftKings will have its best lineup of tournaments for the week. We are getting an interesting slate with some clear chalk (Edmonton and Toronto), a late-game hammer (Calgary), and very little value to work with at the moment. That makes this a very challenging slate. Do you go heavy on the chalk and get different with your secondary stacks or do you fade the chalk and try to configure a more balanced lineup?
DraftKings has its usual array of low-cost GPP options, including five tournaments with an entry fee of $20 or less and a first prize of $1,000 or more; highlighted by the $15-entry Kick Save with a top prize of $20,000. Meanwhile, Fanduel has a $4.44 entry tournament with a $2,000 first prize. There is money to be won tonight, so let’s get that cash!
This is going to be a fun slate with a ton of stacking options. I aim to help you narrow your plays to get the most bang for your DFS buck. Be sure to check out all of our NHL articles and NHL DFS tools, including our daily NHL Heat Map. NHL Premium members can find many members of the RotoBaller NHL team in Discord leading up to lock to answer all of your lineup questions.
Top Three Stacks of the Night
Edmonton Oilers (EDM1 - Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, Evan Bouchard)
It’s time to go back to the well with the Oilers. Once again, they have one of the three best matchups on tonight’s slate. They head into Chicago to face a Blackhawks team that is not very good defensively. Over their last 10 home games, the Hawks have gotten lucky to only allow 2.29 even-strength goals per 60 minutes, because advanced data shows that they should have allowed closer to three goals. If there’s any team in the NHL that can commence that kind of negative regression, it’s the Edmonton Oilers.
Edmonton has scored 3.65 even-strength goals per 60 minutes, the highest number on the slate by a significant margin. Nobody needs to tell you to play Connor McDavid, but let’s not forget about the rest of this line. Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Evan Bouchard have combined for 15 goals and assists over their last three games. They are playing at an all-world level right now. One of the things we’ve repeatedly seen with Edmonton is that people are afraid to use a full four-man stack because of what it means for the rest of their lineup. There is enough value elsewhere on this slate that you can get the full stack and still have the rest of your lineup in good spots.
To win a GPP, you have to be willing to come in last place, and stacking the Oilers with some different value options could blow up in your face if Petr Mrazek stands on his head, but if you get the value pieces right and Edmonton does their thing, you’re putting yourself in a position to take down a tournament.
The @EdmontonOilers Zach Hyman:
Career-high 27 goals in 1st season in EDM
Career-high 36 goals in 2nd season in EDM
25 goals in 35 games played this season...5th in the NHLBest Free Agent signing in team history! pic.twitter.com/RHeV2YHVes
— Bob Stauffer (@Bob_Stauffer) January 9, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs (TOR1 - Auston Matthews, Mitchell Marner, Matthew Knies, Morgan Rielly)
If you’re looking to pivot off of Edmonton, your first stop should be the top line for the Maple Leafs. While Auston Matthews isn’t quite at Connor McDavid’s level, he’s one of the five best fantasy options that aren’t McDavid. The duo of Matthews and Mitchell Marner have been great for years and they’re doing their thing again this year, averaging nearly 33 DraftKings points per game.
Tonight’s matchup against the Sharks is even better than Edmonton’s against Chicago, as the San Jose defense has been a wasteland on the road. They allow 3.74 even-strength goals and 13.21 high-danger chances per 60 minutes over their last 10 games. Combine that with Toronto’s average of 3.16 even-strength goals per 60 minutes in their last 10 home games and you have the single best matchup on the slate. Toronto or Edmonton will likely be the chalk stacks tonight, so your best way to attack that is to build your tournament lineups around one of them, use four-man stacks, and fill in the rest with a secondary value stack and a value goalie.
Calgary Flames (CGY1 - Elias Lindholm, Jonathan Huberdeau, Yegor Sharangovich)
Your late-game hammer tonight is the Calgary Flames. They have been struggling a bit offensively, scoring only 2.09 even-strength goals per 60 minutes at home over their last 10 games, but advanced data suggests that they’ve been a bit unlucky as their expected goals were 2.61 over that same time frame. Tonight they get to face a Senators team that has allowed 3.15 even-strength goals and 13.61 high-danger chances per 60 minutes in their last 10 road games, numbers that advanced data paints as completely legitimate. The best defensive matchup for Calgary should be for their top line, which is great because they are not that expensive to stack. You can use the Flames for a more balanced lineup if you want to fade the chalk of Toronto and Edmonton. They pair nicely with Vancouver or Winnipeg’s top lines.
Others in consideration: VAN1, WPG1, FLA1
Top Value Stack of the Night
Toronto Maple Leafs (TOR3 - Calle Jarnkrok, Max Domi, Pontus Holmberg)
As of this writing (before morning skate), there aren’t a lot of value slates that are popping on the Heat Map, so we are going to go back to the well with a team that we wrote up for the main stacks and that’s the Toronto Maple Leafs. The third line for Toronto isn’t nearly as appealing as the top line, but they do get the same great matchup against a poor Sharks defense. Calle Jarnkrok is playing his best hockey of the season right now, averaging three shots on goal over his last five games and scoring a goal in two of his last three games. Max Domi has a combined eight goals and assists over his last ten games, so this duo does have a bit of upside. Ideally, Pontus Holmberg will get replaced on this line before the game starts, but even if he’s out there he’s only $2,500 and a cheap assist would pay off.
Others in consideration: BUF2, CBJ2, WPG2, CGY3
Top Goalies to Target
Connor Hellebuyck (Winnipeg Jets)
Connor Hellebuyck has been the best goalie in the NHL this year, full stop. He has been consistently excellent, allowing more than three goals in a game just once since October 17, a span of 26 games. With that said, he’s only been a mid-range fantasy option due to the lack of shot volume that he faces. The Jets allow under 29 shots on goal per game, limiting Hellebuyck’s upside. Still, with his low total of goals allowed, he has one of the safer floors in all of hockey, and in cash games, we are willing to sacrifice upside for safety. Over his last ten home games, Hellebuyck has scored 17 or more DraftKings points eight times. That’s pretty safe! Goalie has been the hardest position to predict this year, so maybe it’s time to stop hunting value for our cash games and just play the best player.
Others in consideration (GPP): Connor Ingram, Jacob Markstrom, Cam Talbot, Martin Jones
Others in consideration (Cash): Stuart Skinner, Joey Daccord
