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Allow me to extend a warm welcome to many of you who are embarking on your playoff push. We saw several injuries strike in Week 14, which hammers home the importance of padding that depth! As always, joining our famous waiver wire pickups list and our weekly fantasy football waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB).
As a caveat, these prices do not indicate how much these free-agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player, but we've now added different categories of bids to reflect team-need situations.
We have no more byes to navigate. You simply must make your sacrifice to Lady Luck and hope for good health to bless the chess pieces you set in place. Here are my median FAAB bid ranges and adds going into Week 15.
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FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Quarterbacks
*Matthew Stafford and Baker Mayfield are above the rostered threshold but should be priority adds if available, with Stafford being the 1A add.
Jake Browning (QB, CIN) - 27% rostered
FAAB Bid: 3-5%
Aggressive Bid: 5-8%
Browning has settled into the starting role over his last two games, completing 50-of-61 passes for 629 yards, and a 3:1 TD/INT ratio. He’s also rushed for a touchdown in back-to-back games. He’ll face a reeling Minnesota squad at home in Week 15 before tough dates in Week 16 (at PIT) and 17 (at KC). Browning’s been good and his weapons are stout, but he looks like a one-week rental here.
The NFL is the best.
Week 14 Passer Rating Leaders
1. Jake Browning
2. Brock Purdy
3. Zach Wilson
4. Bailey Zappe
5. Tommy Devito
7. Stafford
8. Dak
9. Lamar— Wildes (@kevinwildes) December 12, 2023
*Will Levis, Gardner Minshew, Joe Flacco, Tommy Devito, Nick Mullens, and Derek Carr are volatile streamers that can be had out of the dollar bin. And if Geno Smith can’t go then Drew Lock’s cavalier play makes him a decent 2QB dart, a la Jameis Winston.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Running Backs
Ty Chandler (RB, MIN) - % rostered
FAAB Bid: 60-75%
Aggressive Bid: 75-100%
Chandler assumed starting duties after Alexander Mattison was forced out with an ankle injury in the third quarter. I genuinely hope you didn’t have to watch that horrible game, which deserved to be a 0-0 tie, but Mattison had run well with 66 yards on 10 totes. Chandler would tally 42 total yards on 15 touches, with the volume being our emphasis.
It may not be pretty and those in PPR formats will take more interest in the versatile Chandler, who had three catches in relief. Justin Jefferson also exited early with a chest injury and eventually Joshua Dobbs was replaced by Nick Mullens. Their offensive potency is low going into a road date in Cincinnati next week, but 15-plus touches are 15-plus touches.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB, KC) - 50% rostered
Jerick McKinnon (RB, KC) - 41% rostered
FAAB Bid: 60-75%
Aggressive Bid: 75-100%
Kansas City deployed a near 50/50 split between CEH and McKinnon in their Week 14 loss to the Bills. Both saw four targets, but CEH had 11 carries compared to McKinnon’s four. However, McKinnon got the valuable goal-line plunge for the score.
This is the reality without Isiah Pacheco anchoring the RB room. Both CEH and McKinnon have particular skills and fit into set schemes. No one will be “the guy” but McKinnon’s versatility and hurry-up role balances out CEH’s bigger frame for short-yardage scenarios.
KC should control the game at NE in Week 15, offering upside for both RBs. Keep an eye on Pacheco’s progress, but KC shouldn’t need to risk him against the Pats.
D'Onta Foreman (RB, CHI) - 38% rostered
FAAB Bid: 40-60%
Aggressive Bid: 60-75%
Desperation Bid: 75-100%
Foreman healed up from his shin/ankle injuries over the bye and returned to his early-down role as Chicago’s 1A RB. We hadn’t seen all three RBs available since the beginning of ‘23 but CHI appears happy to let Foreman pick up his recent role ahead of Khalil Herbert.
The 28-13 victory saw Foreman get 13 touches, including two receptions. This figure crushed Herbert’s three carries and Roschon Johnson’s lone carry on the day. Foreman also looked good, averaging ~4.5 YPC with 72 total yards. It’s nigh impossible to rely on Herbert or Johnson out of the gate as they likely need Foreman to struggle early in a game to get a chance.
Tread carefully, as Week 15 brings a road date with Cleveland. But Week 16 speculators or those on bye will note the Week 16 home matchup against Arizona’s top-five fantasy RB defense.
Zamir White (RB, LV) - 2% rostered
FAAB Bid: 30-50%
Aggressive Bid: 50-60%
Desperation Bid: 60-100%
Josh Jacobs suffered a knee injury late in the fourth quarter, which would leave White with valuable short-yardage touches. The Raiders have a short turnaround this week, facing a Chargers team that’s weak against the run on Thursday night.
The #Raiders listed RB Josh Jacobs as a non-participant on Monday's estimated injury report with a quad injury. They play the #Chargers on Thursday night.
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) December 11, 2023
White would cede passing work to Ameer Abdullah, but 12-16 touches for a shot at ~50 yards and a TD plunge is worth a flex dart in the playoffs! And if Jacobs’ injury proves more serious then the add pays off with a top-five RB matchup against Indy’s defense in Week 17.
Chase Brown (RB, CIN) - 6% rostered
FAAB Bid: 20-25%
Aggressive Bid: 25-40%
Desperation Bid: 40-60%
Brown’s hamstring looks 100% alright, as he tallied over 100 total yards and a tuddy in the 34-14 victory over Indy. The bulk of his day came on a screen pass that he took 54 yards to the house, as he’s shown explosiveness on a few plays now.
You’ll recall he gained 61 yards on nine carries last week. Joe Mixon remains the alpha and had 24 touches of his own, but Brown’s big-play abilities can jive with 10-12 touches per week to make him a plug-and-play flex.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Wide Receivers
Noah Brown (WR, HOU) - 49% rostered
FAAB Bid: 50-60%
Aggressive Bid: 60-75%
Desperation Bid: 75-100%
Weather, a gritty Jets secondary, and C.J. Stroud’s concussion combined for a goose egg from Brown. But he still had five targets and came close to hauling in some long shots. Stroud’s health is paramount to Brown holding fantasy value, but there’s more to it than that.
Houston also lost Nico Collins to a calf strain, which leaves Brown as the undisputed No. 1 WR. No Collins, Tank Dell, or Dalton Schultz earnestly tests Houston’s depth. Davis Mills is not an enticing fantasy option but the Texans do draw a top-10 fantasy secondary in Tennessee next week. If Brown’s knee injury is far enough in the past then any short catch has long-TD potential with his wheels.
Odell Beckham Jr. (WR, BAL) - 41% rostered
FAAB Bid: 40-50%
Aggressive Bid: 50-60%
Desperation Bid: 60-75%
OBJ was a captain for his Rams rematch and earned the title with a 4-97-1 line. He’s now scored in three of Baltimore’s last five games, and one of the non-TD games saw him notch 116 yards.
The Ravens will face three above-average WR matchups in the next three weeks (JAX, SF, MIA). The Jags have allowed C.J. Stroud, Jake Browning, and Joe Flacco to eclipse 300 passing yards in their last three games. This bodes well for Lamar Jackson and his receivers.
Zay Jones (WR, JAX) - 29% rostered
FAAB Bid: 20-25%
Aggressive Bid: 25-35%
Desperation Bid: 35-50%
Jones benefitted from CLE-JAX somehow evolving into a 31-27 shootout, as he commanded 14 (ugly) targets to pace the Jags. He would only catch five of them for a mere 29 yards, but the weather and Cleveland’s (typically) solid defense made life difficult on the perimeter. It’s another tough matchup (vs. BAL) next week but then there’s an incredible one at Tampa Bay to circle.
#Jaguars WR routes run in the first game without Christian Kirk (groin, IR). On 56 Trevor Lawrence dropbacks:
* Calvin Ridley 55
* Zay Jones 52
* Parker Washington 35
* Tim Jones 8
* Elijah Cooks 3— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) December 11, 2023
Rashid Shaheed (WR, NO) - 40% rostered
FAAB Bid: 10-15%
Aggressive Bid: 15-25%
Desperation Bid: 25-50%
Shaheed has missed the last two weeks after a thigh injury worsened in Week 12. The dynamic wideout saw five targets early in that one before exiting. We had a small sample of his increased involvement following Michael Thomas’ IR placement, which makes for healthy speculation ahead of Week 15’s game versus the Giants.
Michael Wilson (WR, ARI) - 6% rostered
FAAB Bid: 8-12%
Aggressive Bid: 12-20%
Desperation Bid: 20-30%
Wilson has missed three weeks with a shoulder injury and hasn’t been 100% since back around Week 8. It’s been a while, but don’t forget he topped 55 yards in five of eight games to open the ‘23 season. He reportedly participated in Arizona’s unofficial Monday practice and should reclaim his deep-threat role for Kyler Murray’s big arm against San Fran.
Demarcus Robinson (WR, LAR) - 0% rostered
FAAB Bid: 4-6%
Aggressive Bid: 6-8%
Desperation Bid: 8-12%
Robinson battled against his old team (BAL) for a 3-46-1 line on 10 targets in a 31-37 firefight. This makes two straight games with over 45 yards and a TD for Robinson as he has gained the confidence of Matthew Stafford.
Tutu Atwell left to be evaluated for a concussion, which would leave Robinson in line for valuable No. 3 WR duties against a weak Washington secondary in Week 15. The 29-year-old WR has delivered against CLE and BAL, so what could he do against WAS?
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Tight Ends
Hunter Henry (TE, NE) - 24% rostered
FAAB Bid: 10-15%
Aggressive Bid: 15-20%
Desperation Bid: 20-30%
Henry caught a pair of touchdowns on Thursday with a 3-40-2 line as he and Bailey Zappe showed healthy chemistry. Henry had over 50 yards and a touchdown in each of New England’s first two games of ‘23 before the offensive collapse took hold. He’s a sizeable, athletic presence near the red zone. Week 15 against KC isn’t ideal, but then Henry faces a Denver defense that is a bottom-three unit against the TE.
Brevin Jordan (TE, HOU) - 23% rostered
FAAB Bid: 3-6%
Aggressive Bid: 6-8%
Desperation Bid: 8-12%
Jordan’s three catches for 35 yards is nothing to write home about, but he’s one of the last receivers standing for Houston. Dalton Schultz’s hamstring injury is now joined by Nico Collins’ calf, which is on top of the season-ending leg injury to Tank Dell. That said, if C.J. Stroud (concussion) is unable to go in Week 15 at Tennessee then Jordan is a poor streaming option.
Davis Allen (TE, LAR) - 0% rostered
FAAB Bid: 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-5%
Desperation Bid: 5-8%
Allen, a 2023 fifth-round pick out of Clemson, turned five targets into a 4-50-1 receiving line with Tyler Higbee out. We’ll see if Higbee can return by Week 15’s date with Washington but Allen easily leapfrogged Brycen Hopkins for action.
Fellow LAR TE Hunter Long was carted off with an early injury. Those in deep waters could sprinkle Allen into the mix, especially since his TD came on a designed play. No flukes here!
Rams draw up a TE screen and Davis Allen scores his 1st career TD!
📺: #LARvsBAL on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/pWMED8SAQa pic.twitter.com/elJyqK47hd— NFL (@NFL) December 10, 2023
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Defense/Special Teams
Atlanta Falcons Defense (at CAR) - 32% rostered
FAAB Bid: 3-5%
Aggressive Bid: 5-8%
Desperation Bid: 8-12%
Bryce Young simply is not it in 2023. Carolina hasn’t supplied a successful framework around him and he looks overwhelmed when asked to push the ball. Atlanta can lean on its defense and hope that Jessie Bates III can make more magic happen. Vegas’ early lines give Carolina a lousy 17-point implied total. That may be too generous. Carolina is a bottom-four team in terms of overall aDOT and target depth to the sticks, per NFELO.
Los Angeles Rams Defense (vs. WAS) - 17% rostered
FAAB Bid: 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-6%
Desperation Bid: 6-10%
Washington rested up on their bye but that shouldn’t suddenly solve their offensive line woes. We’re also unsure of Brian Robinson Jr.’s health (hamstring). The Rams have multiple sacks in eight consecutive games coming into this one, while WAS has given up two or more sacks in 12 of 13 games thus far. Smells like a good recipe to me.
Indianapolis Colts Defense (vs. PIT) - 42% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-3%
Aggressive Bid: 3-5%
Desperation Bid: 5-8%
The Colts likely get an inconsistent-at-best Mitchell Trubisky in their home dome. Indy just got bullied by a rejuvenated Bengals squad but they had six sacks in back-to-back games before that. PIT will grind their ground game and defense if they can help it, but let’s hope Trubs winds up needing to bear responsibility.
Chicago Bears Defense (at CLE) - 5% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-3%
Aggressive Bid: 3-5%
Desperation Bid: 5-8%
The Bears raised eyebrows when trading for pass-rush help at the deadline but we’ve got notable results. After zero sacks in Weeks 8-9, Chicago’s next four games have combined for 11 sacks and 11 turnovers. They now face an aggressive slinger in Joe Flacco, which makes them a decent low-rostered stream. The biggest risk is Cleveland’s D flipping the field too often.
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