EPL Betting Picks and FPL Game Previews for Matchday 13: English Premier League

November 23, 2023

Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchday 13 of the 2023/24 season, starting on 11/25/2023. He previews each game from the English Premier League; picking bets, analyzing the FPL impacts, and looking at the best options for your lineups.

The Premier League is back and so is the RotoBaller soccer team. We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game, along with a score prediction, and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.

We're back following the last international break until February. And there's no let-up in the fixtures with a full midweek slate upcoming before the always hectic Christmas schedule now looming on the horizon. We went into the international break on the back of a seventh consecutive winning week so let's hope our momentum wasn't stunted by the week off.

We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller, too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content on top of the weekly preview and betting content, which can be found if you click here. Follow the team on X (@LucidMediaDFS, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, @BellRoto, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.

Saturday, November 25, 2023

Manchester City (-145) vs. Liverpool (+330) - 07:30 am ET

Score prediction: Manchester City 2 – 2 Liverpool

Despite letting a lead slip three times in their remarkable 4-4 draw with Chelsea, Manchester City remain top of the table. They can open up a four-point gap (albeit potentially only temporarily) with a win. Liverpool will go top of the table with a win but they'll need to end a run of seven EPL games without a win at Manchester City, dating back to 2015.

City's draw with Chelsea highlighted some defensive frailties and they've now kept just two clean sheets in their last 10 EPL games. Liverpool can boast a 100% record at home but have won just two of their six away games, drawing three. In the last seven EPL meetings at the Etihad Stadium, there have been 25 goals. This is a game that could go either way but there shouldn't be any shortage of goals.

FPL Pick: Mo Salah

I'm not worried about Haaland missing this game with the injury that saw him sit out of Norway's game on Monday. And you certainly should still start him on your FPL teams. But I fancy Salah's chances to have a greater impact on this game. The Liverpool man has tallied a goal or assist in each of the last six EPL games against City and is a safer choice as captain if you're concerned about Haaland's injury impacting him this week.

🔵🇳🇴 🚨Understand Erling Haaland’s injury is not serious and he will be fit for City vs Liverpool.

Haaland will not risk to play vs Scotland after his problem but he’ll be regularly back for Man City. pic.twitter.com/Nu0T6Eawrf

— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) November 19, 2023

Burnley (+260) vs. West Ham United (+100) - 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Burnley 1 - 3 West Ham United

A fifth consecutive league defeat has left Burnley rooted to the foot of the table. The four points they've picked up so far have all come on their travels as they've lost all six home games. West Ham's late winner before the international break saw them end a three-game losing run. After going unbeaten in their first three away games of the season, they've lost their last three.

The 18 goals Burnley's conceded at home are a league-high and no side has scored fewer at home (four). While West Ham has lost their last three away games, two came at sides in the current top-5. All six of the Hammers' away games have seen both sides score and given Burnley's defensive record, I expect to visitors to run out winners in a fairly comfortable manner.

FPL Pick: Jarrod Bowen

Bowen is another player who picked up an injury on international duty, although his knee problem isn't expected to see him miss any time. Assuming he is fit for this one, he represents West Ham's best chance of scoring. The England forward is West Ham's top scorer with eight goals and he's found the net in all six away games. He'll have a great opportunity to make it seven in seven.

Although the results of Jarrod Bowen’s medical have yet to be fully received, his knee knock is expected to be minor and not serious. The player returned to Rush green yesterday to be assessed by medical staff. Whether he plays at Burnley away remains to be seen and he faces a… pic.twitter.com/6oIzZyiyVy

— West Ham Football (@westhamfootball) November 21, 2023

Luton Town (+255) vs. Crystal Palace (+110) - 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Luton Town 0 - 0 Crystal Palace

As expected, Luton has found life in the Premier League difficult. Despite losing their last game and being without a win in six games, they currently occupy 17th place in the league. They'll take that at season's end. Palace finds themselves in the bottom half of the table following their defeat against Everton last time out. They've picked up just four points from their last five EPL games.

While Luton has lost six of their last ten games, only once have they been beaten by more than one goal in that run (3-1 loss at Aston Villa). They have remained competitive in each of their games. Their 7.2 xGA (expected goals against) at home is eighth-best in the league. This will be Palace's fourth away game against a side currently in the bottom half of the table. The previous three games saw a total of five goals. A low-scoring affair seems likely.

Just a reminder that if you ever want to bet on a 0-0 scoreline, bet on the first goalscorer market instead and opt for "no goalscorer." If the only goal(s) of the game is an own goal, it still pays out and has the same odds as betting on 0-0. I should also say that this is the third time this season I've backed a Crystal Palace game to end 0-0 and the previous two ended 3-2.....

FPL Pick: Alfie Doughty

If the game is a low-scoring encounter as I expect it to be, targeting defenders (or a goalkeeper) in this game makes sense. And few defenders in FPL carry the upside of Doughty. The Luton full-back ranks 18th among all players in the league for shot-creating actions (42). That's also having started just nine games. If Luton can find a route to goal, there's every chance Doughty will have been involved in it with a set piece being a possible method.

Leaders in Chances Created from Set-Pieces from TheOther14 in the #PL season so far. @Other14The @Prowsey16 takes the lead.#WHUFC #LTFC #BrentfordFC #NUFC #CPFC #Wolves #NFFC #BHAFC #FFC #twitterblades #twitterclarets #AVFC #EFC pic.twitter.com/2lmMwv3ZfH

— TheOther14 (@Other14The) November 20, 2023

Newcastle United (+155) vs. Chelsea (+175) - 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Newcastle United 1 - 2 Chelsea

Newcastle's injury crisis appeared to impact them when they lost at Bournemouth before the international break. Of their 20 points this season, 15 have come at home and only Liverpool has conceded fewer than the three goals Newcastle's allowed at home. Chelsea's last two EPL games have been bonkers and they're still a tough side to predict because of that. They scored 13 goals in their first ten games and now scored eight in their last two.

Newcastle's injury list is in double-digits and their 2-0 defeat at Bournemouth gave us a glimpse of what we might expect until they get some players back. They have kept four consecutive clean sheets at home but now face a Chelsea team that has found some goal-scoring form. It's still too early to announce Chelsea as being "back." But, there are signs they could be hitting their stride and I fancy them to get another positive result on Saturday.

FPL Pick: Cole Palmer

Palmer's excellent form saw him pick up a first full England cap and he comes into this weekend on the back of seven goal involvements in his last six games. I am a little concerned that all four of his goals have come from the penalty spot but he's a young forward full of confidence and that will translate into more assists and a goal from open play sooner rather than later.

The two most in-form midfielders in #FPL at the moment 🔥

Cole Palmer is second only to Mo Salah in terms of points scored by midfielders over the last 6 Gameweeks 👏 pic.twitter.com/103RsOYYVi

— Fantasy Premier League (@OfficialFPL) November 16, 2023

Nottingham Forest (+210) vs. Brighton (+120) - 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1 - 1 Brighton

Forest's loss at West Ham a fortnight ago was only their second in the last six games. Their issue has been winning matches as they've now won just once since Matchday 4. Brighton drew for a third consecutive game before the international break and are winless in six games. The impact of playing midweek European fixtures seems to be showing in their recent form.

While Brighton games have seen 46 goals (averaging 3.83 per game), they've been struggling to find the net frequently of late. Their first six games saw them score 18 goals while their last six games have seen them score seven. They could be without Karou Mitoma for this game and Forest has only conceded six goals in their six home games. Brighton will likely still be without a clean sheet this season after Saturday in what looks like to be a tight game.

Brighton haven’t won any of their last six games in the Premier League:

🔴 1-6 vs Aston Villa
🟡 2-2 vs Liverpool
🔴 1-2 vs Manchester City
🟡 1-1 vs Fulham
🟡 1-1 vs Everton
🟡 1-1 vs Sheffield United pic.twitter.com/jCVjFnHZcM

— The Athletic | Football (@TheAthleticFC) November 12, 2023

FPL Pick: Morgan Gibbs-White

Gibbs-White's 46 shot-creating actions this season lead the team and are twice as many as the second-most by a Forest player. His 18 shots are also a team-high, yet he has three assists and no goals to show for his efforts this season. After registering 17 goal involvements last season, I'm expecting him to have a bit of a breakout soon so this weekend seems like the perfect opportunity given Brighton's defensive deficiencies.

Sheffield United (+220) vs. Bournemouth (+120) - 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Sheffield United 2 - 1 Bournemouth

Sheffield United's draw at Brighton means they come out of the international break unbeaten in two games for the first time this season. While a modest achievement, it's something they can build on as they bid for survival. Bournemouth come into this weekend having won two of their last three games and also showing signs they can avoid relegation this season.

Outside of their 8-0 shellacking at home to Newcastle, Sheffield United's five other home games have all been close, decided by one goal either way. Bournemouth has picked up just one point from their five away games and conceded 17 goals (the most in the league). I don't think the odds reflect how close this game is likely to be and I'm prepared to give the edge to the home side as underdogs considering the two teams' home/away results.

FPL Pick: Gustavo Hamer

Hamer's only got two goals to show for his efforts this season and no goal involvements since Matchday 5. He still leads the team in shots (16), shot-creating actions (29), and touches in the opponent's third (152). Hamer remains Sheffield United's most creative option and against the side with the worst defensive record away from home, this is a game in which he could shine.

🔴⚔️ Sheffield United

Battling to climb out of the drop zone, the Blades have started to show resilience, with a tightened defence leading to 4 crucial points from their last 2 games. Their defensive efforts to reduce opponent shots are finally paying dividends. #SUFC

Gustavo… pic.twitter.com/B2Nymb3oSp

— 20Legend (@20LegendSorare) November 20, 2023

Brentford (+360) vs. Arsenal (-130) - 12:30 pm ET

Score prediction: Brentford 1 - 2 Arsenal

Brentford's three-game winning run ended at Liverpool before the international break. They have an even record of four wins, four draws, and four defeats. It's noticeable that they've played four sides currently in the top 7 and only have one point to show for it. Arsenal managed to put their first league defeat of the season behind them and returned to winning ways before the international break.

Arsenal's three goals conceded away from home are fewest in the league while only four teams have conceded more goals at home than Brentford (10). The absence of captain Martin Ødegaard has stifled Arsenal's creativity somewhat but they've still scored ten goals in their last four EPL games. Ødegaard has returned to training so could provide a huge boost to the Gunners and they should have just enough to win a tight game with or without him.

FPL Pick: Leandro Trossard

Trossard has led the line well for Arsenal since Gabriel Jesus and Eddie Nketiah have missed time recently. He's started ten games for club and country this season, scoring eight goals along with two assists. He's starting Saturday's game in a deeper role but he should have some freedom to roam and find pockets of space.  Trossard etched his name into Emirates Stadium history when he opened the scoring against Burnley two weeks ago.

1000 - Leandro Trossard's opener was @Arsenal's 1,000th goal at the Emirates Stadium in all competitions. Grand. #ARSBUR

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) November 11, 2023

Sunday, November 26, 2023

Tottenham Hotspur (+135) vs. Aston Villa (+175) - 09:00 am ET

Score prediction: Tottenham 2 - 0 Aston Villa

Back-to-back defeats have seen Tottenham slip from first to fourth. A third consecutive defeat will see them drop to fifth. Despite winning four of their five home games, Tottenham is sporting a negative expected goal difference (-0.7 xGD) at home. Villa recorded a 13th consecutive home league win before last time out but has only picked up seven points from their six away games.

Villa's away record isn't close to what they're achieving at home. They've only scored six goals on their travels (23 at home), half of which came against bottom-side Burnley. Tottenham's only dropped points at home came when they had two players sent off. Of the top 10 in the league, only Manchester United (eight) has scored fewer goals at home than Tottenham (nine). I don't foresee this being a high-scoring game at all.

Aston Villa's results make getting a read on them hard.

Some very nice wins! Almost all at home and against teams on the lower side of the rankings.

Some very bad losses away.

Balances out to I guess could be in the hunt for Champions League pic.twitter.com/vCVb10bDn1

— Scott Willis (@scottjwillis) November 21, 2023

FPL Pick: Son Heung-min

Much of Tottenham's attacking play will have to revolve around their captain given the absence of Maddison and Richarlison. Only Salah (101) and Haaland (96) have accumulated more points than Son (82) and it will likely come as no surprise that he blanked in both of Tottenham's losses. I don't expect three consecutive duds from the Korean forward.

Everton (+175) vs. Manchester United (+150) - 11:30 am ET

Score prediction: Everton 1 - 0 Manchester United

Everton's form has picked up lately. They've taken 10 points from their last five games. Unfortunately, they received a 10-point deduction for financial rule breaches which has sent them back into the relegation zone. No team has picked up more points than Manchester United (12) from their last five games. Yet, they don't appear to be playing well and it's no surprise that all seven of their league wins this season have been by only one goal.

Everton's 5.7 xGA at home this season is sixth-best in the league while United's 5.7 xG on their travels is third-worst. The home side will have a feeling of injustice and with their backs against the wall, I fully believe they'll come out all guns blazing this weekend. They lack enough firepower to blow away the visitors but I'm not willing to go against them given their form and everything that's gone down over the last two weeks.

BREAKING: Everton director of football Kevin Thelwell releases a statement in response to the club's 10-point deduction 🔵 pic.twitter.com/WAAYf9zMsm

— Sky Sports News (@SkySportsNews) November 22, 2023

FPL Pick: Jack Harrison

The loan signing of Harrison came with little fanfare but he's been instrumental in Everton's recent uptick in form. Harrison's started the last five EPL games, tallying one goal and three assists. He's a proven Premier League performer, with 37 goals and assists in 100 games for Leeds over the previous three seasons. He can go a long way to helping the Toffees overcome their ten-point deduction.

Monday, November 27, 2023

Fulham (+135) vs. Wolves (+200) - 03:00 pm ET

Score prediction: Fulham 0 - 1 Wolves

Fulahm's form has dipped with just one point taken from their last four games. Only bottom of the table Burnley (nine) has scored fewer goals than Fulham (10). That includes four blanks in their last seven games. Wolves have coped without Pedro Neto and now lost just once in their last seven games. Last season's lowest scorers have now found the net in every game after blanking on the opening matchday of the campaign.

Matchday 13 ends with arguably the least appealing game of the weekend but one that carries plenty of intrigue. Fulham's form doesn't justify them being favorites for this game and their only two home wins came against newly promoted teams. If it wasn't for an incorrect penalty decision, Wolves would be coming into this game on the back of a seven-game unbeaten streak. Wolves just seem to be overpriced for this match.

Fulham have scored 10 goals so far this season, the second-lowest of all Premier League teams, only above Burnley (9).

What's going wrong?

🧵: pic.twitter.com/m7BX5lCoB1

— DB Spots Trends (@dbSpotsTrends) November 16, 2023

FPL Pick: Jean-Ricner Bellegarde

Bellegarde missed four games following his move from Strasbourg, where he scored two and assisted two in three games to start the season. The red card on Matchday 6 tainted some of the excitement he brings to this Wolves team. He returned on Matchday 11 to score off the bench and started Wolves' last game. He's averaged 3.75 shot-creating actions per 90 minutes so far, which is fourth-best on the team.

Betting Picks

The below table gives the odds for each of the three main plays for each game (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay.

Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!

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