College Football Pick 'Em Pool Picks (Week 9) - Targets, Avoids, Predictions for ESPN Pick 'Em Contests

October 25, 2023

Our Mike Marteny lays out the confidence points in ESPN College Pick Em for Week 9 of the 2023 NCAA college football season. Which upsets have the best chance of happening?

We began the second half of the last great college football season last weekend. It was an overall rough week for the group with 43 points from JPH420 leading the way. dherman8 had 42 points. No one else has more than 38 points this week. My 36 points were good enough to crack the top five this week.

The group-leading week from JPH420 vaulted him into first place in the group with 318 points. 50Centi and ertlt are now tied for second place with 316 points. Brian681757 is two points behind them in fourth place. HoneyBadgers and keepingthelittlehumansalive are tied for fifth with 309 points. Five more entries top 300 points and five more are at 296 or above. That means just 22 points separates first from 15th place. It's tight at the top!

Once again, all 10 games are conference games this week. Oh man, this looks tough. It feels like another week where low-40s could lead the group in points again.

College Football Pick Em Overview

This article will be for the confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks here every week for every game so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. Each week, I will recap who's dominating the group before I get into the picks. If you're going to beat everyone, all of the readers will know about it!

Let's get to the countdown! I will count them up from least confident (1) to most (10). You know, for dramatic effect. If I do change my pick or points sometime during the week, I will try to update the article or post it on Twitter. Otherwise, you know all of my picks each week. Good luck out there. I'm against a lot of the public this week. Wish me luck!

(1) Arizona over Oregon State

There is no way that 94% of the public should be this positive in Oregon State on the road. I get the D.J. Uiagalelei love, and after what he went through at Clemson, Lord knows he deserves it. What I see here is an Arizona team that nearly beat Washington before having USC on the ropes, then throat-punched a pretty good Washington State team. This game is in Tucson, not Corvallis. The odds at an Arizona outright win are +128. Vegas definitely doesn't think the Beavers have a 94% shot at winning.

(2) Duke over Louisville

Can Riley Leonard beat the Cardinals in Louisville on one leg? We're about to find out! I think he can because that Duke defense is really good.

(3) Wyoming over Boise State

The Broncos still have quarterback issues and Wyoming can stop the run. Ashton Jeanty is still going to have a good game, but he would need a great one to win this. In a battle of similar teams, I take the one with the better quarterback. I can't believe I'm saying this, but that is Andrew Peasley.

(4) Purdue over Nebraska

This little pie chart here suggests basically a toss-up, yet 94% of the public is on Nebraska. This is a great place to steal points, and I might end up moving this up the ladder before kickoff. The Vegas odds of a Purdue win are +105. That's basically begging for a bet on Purdue.

(5) Troy over Texas State

Troy runs the ball and plays defense. Texas State runs the ball and doesn't play defense. This seems pretty simple. I'm assuming the 18% of the public that picked Texas State only watched the Baylor game. I like T.J. Finley, but I like Kimani Vidal and Gunnar Watson more.

(6) Fresno State over UNLV

Mikey Keene has been practicing some during Fresno's bye week. The coaching staff still hasn't said if he will play or not. My guess is he will, so I'm leaving this up here. It's going to be tough because the only other game that we can switch this with if Keene is out is the Oregon State-Arizona game. You already know my thoughts on Arizona, so I would rather not move that to the top. I'll keep an eye on Keene's practices this week. UNLV is a pretty good team. They also beat a Power Five team this year. If I do move this down, I will try to remember to update this.

(7) Oregon over Utah

We finally know the fat of Cameron Rising and Brant Kuithe, but the writing was already on the wall. The Utes had quit letting Rising warm up in pre-game for the last couple of weeks and it has long been rumored that Kuithe was done. Does this mean that Kuithe and Rising are giving it another go in the Big 12 next year? Time will tell.

Oregon will succeed where USC couldn't The Ducks aren't quite as physical as Utah, but they're closer. USC couldn't come anywhere close to matching the physicality. Oregon can and will with much better athletes than the Utes.

(8) Iowa State over Baylor

This is a game where I would normally try to steal points on the field. 74% of the public is on the Cyclones and Baylor has +108 Vegas odds at an outright win. That hints at a much closer matchup, but I just don't see it. Rocco Becht has the Cyclones offense playing well. Blake Shapen is back, but Baylor still has issues on both sides of the ball. Right now Iowa State is the significantly better team. My idea of stealing points is to try and put more on this game than most entries will.

(9) Ohio over Miami (OH)

I don't usually put rivalry games this high, but Ohio has won 12 of the last 15 Battles of the Bricks. Miami did not look good last week and Brett Gabbert is unfortunately injured again. Ohio is clearly a better team than Miami without Gabbert.

(10) Tennessee over Kentucky

It's time to stop pretending like Kentucky is a good team. Devin Leary has been terrible in that offense. It comes as a surprise to me, but it can no longer be ignored after more than half a season of underachieving. Spencer Rattler had the same issues at South Carolina last year and the Tennessee game was where he finally figured it out. That alone makes me nervous, but the Kentucky defense hasn't been great either.

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