Fantasy Baseball Prospects Outlooks for Dynasty (AFL Week 3) - Benny Montgomery, Tyler Locklear, Wilmer Flores, more

October 18, 2023

Benjamin looks at top MLB prospect risers for fantasy baseball for AFL Week 3. He shares his minor league hitters and pitchers to know as fantasy and dynasty sleepers.

The first two weeks of the Arizona Fall League (AFL) is in the books, and already certain prospects are beginning to show out in their fall assignment. The Padres' Jakob Marsee has blown people away as have top pitching prospects Ricky Tiedemann in the Blue Jays' organization and Jackson Jobe of the Tigers.

The Arizona Fall League is underway until November 11, so we will have four more AFL posts after this one. If there is someone that you'd like covered from the AFL, feel free to drop the name in the comments or find me on X or Bluesky under @biggentleben!

Look here for insight on potential fantasy baseball dynasty league pickups before they hit and to get to know players as they ascend to the major leagues!

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Top Hitter Prospects

Statistical highlights (through Sunday, October 15):

• Doubles: 1. Jakob Marsee 6, 2. Seven with 4.
• Runs batted in: 1. Wes Clarke 14, 2. Chase DeLauter 13, 3. Four with 11.

Hitter Prospect Outlooks: Fantasy Six-Pack

Liam Hicks, C, Texas Rangers

After a pair of impressive seasons for Arkansas State, Hicks was drafted by the Rangers in the ninth round in 2021. The Canada native struggled in his pro debut in complex ball, but he did walk more than he struck out.

In 2022, Hicks missed time with injury multiple times, but ended up playing 50 games and coming to the plate 199 times, posting a .327/.462/.460 line with three home runs, five steals and a 36/22 BB/K ratio. He followed that with another strong season this year, working his way up to Double-A while slashing .275/.414/.373 with a 59/63 BB/K ratio.

Hicks has played catcher and first base throughout his minor league time, but he's getting extra time behind the plate in the AFL, hoping his glove can improve enough to be a bat-first backstop. He's had an incredible week this past week, at one point going on a 10-for-11 stretch at the plate. He's hitting .571/.647/.714 with a 6/4 BB/K ratio through seven games in Arizona.

VERDICT: Hicks is a mediocre defensive catcher, which will make his bat his carrying tool, yet while his contact skills and eye are excellent, his power tool is average, so there's not a huge draw for Hicks in fantasy. That said, he could have some notable value as an OBP option in two-catcher leagues if he can show enough behind the plate to earn a few starts per week. Leave him be for now.

David McCabe, 3B, Atlanta Braves

The second native Canadian this week attended the Univeristy of North Carolina at Charlotte, where McCabe hit 30 home runs over his final two years. The Braves then selected him in the fourth round of last summer's draft. McCabe was able to get up to Single-A in his pro debut, hitting .245/.336/.330 over 125 plate appearances, but not showing the power he had in college.

McCabe played across the Braves' two A-ball levels this season, kicking out 17 home runs and adding 23 doubles with a .276/.386/.450 line in 123 games. McCabe was also adept enough on the basepaths to swipe 10 bags. The switch-hitter had a 80/113 BB/K ratio as well.

Defensively, McCabe is a thick 6'3" guy whose range isn't excellent, but his arm is easy plus, with both arm strength and accuracy. However, whether he could stick at third long-term will be interesting, though he's playing third and first with Salt River in the AFL thus far.

VERDICT: McCabe doesn't do any one thing exceptionally offensively, but he's the type of guy that could be a second- or third-tier third baseman if he matured into a major league starter. Right now, he's got plenty of work to do before he's fantasy-worthy.

Oliver Dunn, 2B, Philadelphia Phillies

Dunn put together a .366 season in his draft season at Utah, earning an 11th round selection by the New York Yankees. He struggled with contact in his pro debut that summer, hitting .226/.332/.321 in 51 games, playing all over the infield defensively.

After the pandemic season, Dunn struggled in 2021 between Double-A and Triple-A, hitting .196/.335/.368. He then missed much of the 2022 season with injury, but hit .288/.406/.525 in 36 games between Double-A and Triple-A. The Phillies grabbed Dunn with the very last pick of this past winter's minor league Rule 5 draft, so his prospects were not exactly high coming into 2023.

Dunn remade his swing and ended up having an impressive season in Double-A with Reading, slashing .271/.396/.506 with 27 doubles and 21 home runs while stealing 16 bases and posting a 82/139 BB/K ratio. He played primarily second base, though he did see time at third and left. In the AFL, he has played 2B/3B/SS, showing himself to have strong hands at each position, though a bit light on range for short.

VERDICT: This could be a case of a late bloomer as Dunn is 25 and has a total of 19 plate appearances above Double-A. He could be a bat-first infield backup, but that will take consistent hitting from a bat that really just showed up last year. Keep your eye out because a power bat in the middle infield if he could earn a starting role could be very valuable.

Benny Montgomery, OF, Colorado Rockies

After dominating in the summer before his senior year of high school, Montgomery was highly regarded for his overall package of tools coming out of high school in Pennsylvania, drafted eighth overall by the Rockies in the 2021 draft. He developed a bit of a cult following in the sports collectible community for his unique autographs on Bowman cards produced before he'd had his first full season in the minors.

A quad injury limited Montgomery in what was supposed to be his full-season debut in 2022. He played just 62 games, hitting .310/.385/.494 with six home runs and nine steals. He did have a notably high strikeout rate for what he'd shown previously, posting a 26.9% strikeout rate when contact had previously been his calling card.

This year, he spent the whole year at High-A, slashing .251/.336/.370 with 10 home runs and 18 steals. The Rockies pushed him to High-A and his raw athleticism kept him from completely failing. He has shown to be an impressive defensive center fielder with a plus arm as well as double-plus speed.

VERDICT: Montgomery's raw tools are still drool-worthy, but his power has been sporadic in large part due to the Rockies pushing him. If he can show his power to go along with the defense and speed, he could quickly become a highly desirable prospect, but for now, he's only rosterable in deep dynasty.

Tyler Locklear, 1B, Seattle Mariners

Locklear was a highly-regarded tight end in high school who went to Virginia Commonwealth to play college ball. He had a big power showing at the Cape Cod League the summer before his draft season and then crushed 20 home runs while hitting .402 for the Rams the next spring. His impressive draft year performance earned him a second-round selection by the Mariners last summer.

Locklear made it to Single-A in his draft year, hitting seven home runs and slashing .285/.366/.504 in 31 games. However, his defense at third base was troublesome. The Mariners made the decision to move Locklear to first base, though he did work on his physicality in the offseason, giving him more baserunning speed but not really helping his defensive footwork.

Playing primarily first base and DH this year, Locklear hit .288/.405/.502, working his way up to Double-A, with 13 home runs, 25 doubles, and 12 stolen bases. He also drastically improved his walk rate (12.5%) and strikeout rate (20.3%).

VERDICT: Lockler has the ideal build to be a big power bat, but so far his elite exit velocities have not turned into over-fence power. That said, he's a fringe top-100 prospect and could move quickly to a Mariners big league club that has room at first base and DH. He should be owned in all deep and mid-sized dynasty leagues.

Eric Brown Jr., SS/2B, Milwaukee Brewers

After leading Coastal Carolina into the postseason in his draft year and hitting .330, Brown was picked 27th overall in the 2022 draft by the Brewers. He played shortstop primarily in his pro debut that summer, hitting .268/.385/.454 with three home runs and 19 stolen bases, working up to Single-A.

Brown worked through injuries this year, earning a late-season bump up to Double-A. He hit .255/.358/.354 with six home runs and 39 stolen bases. The Brewers wanted him to get some time at second base in the AFL, and he's split his time nearly 50/50 between the two middle infield positions.

Brown has electric speed, but he's grooved his swing to attempt to generate more home runs, leading to balls leaving the park but struggling to get other extra bases, as he had just eight doubles to go with the six homers this season. That's not been the case in the AFL so far, where he's had four doubles and a triple while also stealing five bases.

VERDICT: Brown has tremendous raw speed, and he's shown well at both middle infield positions defensively. The Brewers' situation at both middle infield spots is unsettled long-term, so if he could lean into his line drive swing and use his blistering speed, he could potentially be a huge source of steals. Deep dynasty leagues should have their eyes on Brown.

Top Pitcher Prospects

Statistical highlights:

• WHIP: 1. Jake McSteen 0.00, 2. Enmanuel Pinales 0.43, 3. Davis Daniel 0.60, 4. Eric Cerantola and Case Williams 0.67.
• Walks: 1. Alessandro Ercolani 11, 2. Miguel Ullola 9, 3. Six with 6.

Pitcher Prospect Outlooks: Fantasy Six-Pack

Zach Penrod, RP, Boston Red Sox

Penrod moved from NAIA Corban to Division II Northwest Nazarene and put up a 1.89 ERA over 19 innings, striking out 17. However, the 6'2" lefty did not get drafted, signing as an undrafted free agent with the Rangers, but pitched to a 6.17 ERA over 11 2/3 innings. Penrod then had Tommy John surgery and the Rangers released him in 2020 before he could get back on the field.

He then pitched for independent baseball in 2021 and 2022, with his number not exactly shining. He joined Missoula in the independent Pioneer League this summer and pitched very well, earning a mid-August signing by the Red Sox. They sent him to their High-A club, where he made four starts, tossing 20 2/3 innings, and posting a 2.18 ERA and 11/20 BB/K ratio.

Penrod has a bit of deception to his delivery, which allows his 92-96 fastball to play up along with his excellent late wiggle. He has discovered a plus change that he now pairs with the fastball, mixing in a mid-80s slider that he can alter the shape on in order to keep hitters honest.

VERDICT: While the story is amazing for Penrod, I don't know that he's more than a long reliever/spot starter in the majors, so no need to roster him, but then again, that's a huge jump from where he was on August 1!

Wilmer Flores, SP, Detroit Tigers

The brother of the major league infielder by the same name, Flores was signed as an undrafted free agent out of Junior College after the truncated 2020 draft by the Tigers. There was not a 2020 season, so the 6'4" Flores made his pro debut in 2021 and was impressive enough to finish the season with 12 2/3 innings at the Arizona Fall League after striking out 90 over 66 innings.

Seeing his struggles at the AFL had the Tigers slowing down Flores' path a bit in 2022. He opened the year in High-A but spent most of the year with Double-A Erie. Combined, he posted a 2.79 ERA over 103 1/3 innings with a 130/23 K/BB ratio.

Flores struggled with some injuries this season but was still able to post 89 innings with a 4.65 ERA and a 90/33 K/BB ratio. He works with a 92-94 MPH fastball that can touch the upper 90s in short bursts along with a plus cutter. He also works in an above-average curve. When he's locating well, he has been a big prospect. Control for Flores has never been the issue, but he can begin missing his spots and get hit hard.

VERDICT: Flores has made three appearances so far in his second time in the AFL, but he's tossed multiple innings in each appearance. His upside is a mid-rotation starter, but he could be there as soon as next year. He is a deep dynasty hold for now, but no reason yet to jump on board beyond that.

Case Williams, SP, Colorado Rockies

Considered one of the most talented pitchers to ever graduate from a Colorado high school, Williams was selected by his hometown Rockies in the fourth round of the 2020 draft. He was then moved in an offseason deal to Cincinnati, but in midseason 2021, he was swapped back to the Rockies in a deal that sent Mychal Givens to the Reds.

In that debut year in 2021, Williams had a high ERA (5.73) over 75 1/3 innings along with a 51/47 K/BB ratio. His 2022 was not a lot better, though he did get all the way up to Double-A, combining for a 4.64 ERA over 128 innings and a 135/46 K/BB. This season he spent the entire year at Double-A Hartford, but his control left him, leading to a 7.08 ERA over 101 2/3 innings with a 79/51 K/BB.

He works with a fastball that sits in the low 90s and can run into the mid-90s. He uses an average curve and a fringe-average change. When he struggles with locating his secondary stuff, he gets into the habit of "aiming" his fastball or overthrowing it. Either way, the heater flattens out and becomes a batting practice pitch.

VERDICT: Williams needs to develop command and control of his entire repertoire better to be of any prospective value. Right now you can leave him be in all dynasty formats.

Braden Nett, SP, San Diego Padres

Nett was signed out of Junior College as an undrafted free agent in 2022. He made a strong impression in just three appearances, striking out five.  That led to what was supposed to be his first full season this year, but Nett missed more than two months of action and then had a long rehab with the Padres' Arizona complex team.

He then jumped to the Padres' Single-A affiliate, and in 14 combined appearances, he posted a 4.46 ERA over 40 1/3 innings with a 45/37 K/BB ratio. So far in the AFL, he has pitched 13 innings across three appearances, with a 1.38 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, and a 16/4 K/BB.

Nett works with a fastball that sits 93-96 and can touch the upper 90s with a unique angle due to his low 3/4 arm angle. He uses a high-spin slider, a downer curve, and a fringe-average change. When he controls all four pitches, he has mid-rotation upside, and he's showing that type of control in the AFL so far.

VERDICT: Nett is way off radars right now, but he should start getting more love very quickly, and he will if he continues his performance in the AFL. Even with the impressive AFL showing so far, Nett has not pitched above A-ball yet, so you can leave him be right now in all dynasty formats.

Jake McSteen, RP, Atlanta Braves

After four years at Nebraska, McSteen went undrafted and unsigned in 2018 due to Tommy John surgery. He pitched in independent ball in 2020, striking out 52 over 50 innings for Joliet with a 2.70 ERA. That caught the attention of the Braves, who signed him in May 2021.

McSteen moved across both A-ball levels in 2021, posting a 3.68 ERA over 22 appearances, 17 of them starts, tossing 95 1/3 innings and posting a 91/26 K/BB rate. He spent all of 2022 at High-A Rome, making the transition to the bullpen, tossing 60 2/3 innings over 37 appearances with a 4.90 ERA and a 72/13 K/BB ratio.

This season, he posted a 4.13 ERA across 40 appearances and 56 2/3 innings in Double-A, with a 51/18 K/BB ratio. He comes aggressively at hitters, using a lefty sling arm swing to generate a low-90s fastball and breaker that he typically uses to pound the zone.

VERDICT: McSteen's pure stuff is not elite and requires pinpoint control to be able to succeed. His upside is a middle reliever from the left side. No need to roster him in dynasty.

Christian McGowan, SP, Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies drafted McGowan in the seventh round of the 2021 draft out of Eastern Oklahoma State College. He made four appearances that season, tossing five scoreless innings with eight strikeouts. He only made two starts in 2022 due to Tommy John surgery.

Returning from surgery this season, McGowan pitched across four levels, making nine starts, tossing 25 2/3 innings, posting a 3.86 ERA and striking out 28. He's posted a 4.00 ERA over his first two starts in the AFL, with a 6/1 K/BB over nine innings.

McGowan has legit mid-rotation upside, but he needs to be able to stay on the field. He leads his repertoire with a 93-95 MPH fastball that he throws as both a two-seam and four-seam offering. He has a heavy slider as his primary secondary pitch, but he also has a change that shows plus upside.

VERDICT: McGowan has a great frame to potentially handle starting, but he needs to get some time under his belt before he's a suggestion at any level of dynasty.

Check back again next week for more evaluations and look behind the numbers!

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