The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 16

Welcome back to The Cut List for Week 16. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to...for now.

We've made it to the All-Star Break which gives us a few days to pause, reflect and regroup before we push for fantasy glory. It'll also give us some time to ascertain what we need to do to finish the season strong, where our rosters need strengthening and who we should be looking at ousting.

Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone. As the year continues to progress, there will be different reasons and stronger cases to drop underperforming players. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and weekly lineup resources:

• Nick Mariano's fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups (Premium)
• Start/Sit recommendations - All Pitcher Matchups for Week Ahead
• Fantasy baseball waiver wire rankings (top 80 players)
• FAAB fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups
• Starting pitcher fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups
• Outfield fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups
• 1B/3B fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups
• 2B/SS fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups
• Catcher fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups
• Hitter streamers - fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups
• Two-start pitcher streamers - fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups
• Cut List - Players To Consider Dropping

 

Worth Dropping and Replacing?

MJ Melendez - C/OF, Kansas City Royals - 55% rostered

Melendez was an ideal draft target this year. A catcher-eligible player who will play almost every day in the outfield and has plenty of power is certainly someone I'd be targeting in drafts. But Melendez hasn't lived up to expectations.

After 83 games, Melendez has six homers, 31 RBI, 34 runs and four stolen bases along with a .208/.289/.337 slash line. That .337 SLG is 142nd among 151 qualified hitters and he ranks 19th among catchers on Yahoo!. Given Melendez ranks 567th overall, that's a testament to how bad the catcher position is.

Earlier this season, I had seven or eight catchers whom I considered as must roster at the position and Melendez was one of them. Largely, that was down to the fact he was set to be in the top-5 at the position for plate appearances and home runs. Whilst the first part is still true, the second is not.

In fact, there are 23 catcher-eligible players who have more home runs than Melendez so the promise of power has not materialized. He is also only ranked tied-16th for RBI and tied-12th for runs among catchers which, given he's fourth in at-bats, isn't great.

Why has Melendez struggled so much and why is there no hope for him moving forward? If we look at some numbers, we'll see why Melendez has had such a poor 2023 to this point. His 29.5% K% is up from 24.5% last year and ranks in the 11th percentile.

And while his 9.9% BB% is in the 70th percentile, it's also down on last year's (12.4%). The only thing Melendez has going for him is how hard he hits the ball. The problem is, when you make as little contact as Melendez does, the quality of the contact is less relevant.

Melendez's Statcast Profile encapsulates all of this. To really understand how little contact Melendez makes, of the 151 qualified hitters, his 69.8% contact rate of pitches in the zone (according to Statcast), ranks last.

What's frustrating is Melendez's 34.2% GB% (ground ball rate) is 16th lowest among the qualified hitters so it's not like he's hitting the ball into the ground a lot, yet his expected numbers are still poor. While his .399 xSLG is considerably better than his actual SLG, it's still below the league average.

The fact Melendez also has a .286 BABIP doesn't fill me with confidence that his numbers will get much better. I will acknowledge he has an xHR total of 9.1 so can be considered a bit unlucky in that regard, but given he plays in one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks, it's also not entirely surprising.

Then there is of course the issue of the Royals lineup, which ranks second-worst in the league for runs scored (333). That too was always going to negatively impact Melendez but few expected them to be as bad as they have been, barely any better than the much-maligned Athletics.

In truth, if Melendez was on most other teams, he likely would have been demoted by now making this all pretty irrelevant anyway.

Verdict: There are far too many negatives around Melendez right now to warrant rostering him. If you drafted him as an outfielder, he was someone you likely dropped some time ago and if he's your catcher, I'd probably be looking to move on and nab one of the better-performing options or roll with a hot hand. In two-catcher leagues and deep leagues, Melendez is still rosterable.

Kyle Gibson - SP, Baltimore Orioles - 41% rostered

I was slightly taken aback by the fact Gibson hasn't been featured on The Cut List this year and was over 40% rostered. In 18 starts, Gibson has an 8-6 W-L record, 4.73 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 78 Ks (102.2 IP).

He didn't get off to a bad start at all this year, posting a 3.89 ERA by the end of May (12 starts) but things have certainly gone downhill since then with a 6.84 ERA in his five June starts. Earlier this week, he allowed four runs on three hits and four walks against the Yankees (6.0 IP).

If we look at some of his underlying numbers, we'll be able to see that Gibson's early season form was a bit of a mirage and he's just experienced some natural regression. In his first 12 starts, Gibson had a 4.63 xFIP and 4.98 SIERA and in his last six starts, he's had a 4.49 xFIP and 4.38 SIERA.

If anything, Gibson has been better over the last few starts but his luck has run out and his ERA now sits about where you'd expect it to. He now ranks as the 186th starting pitcher on Yahoo!, which basically means his ERA and WHIP have negated the wins and strikeouts he's tallied.

Those rankings are slightly skewed by some relievers being SP eligible and many pitchers with single-digit innings ranking better than Gibson due to not harming your ratios. But if we look at where he ranks among the 79 pitchers with at least 80.0 IP, it doesn't make pretty viewing.

	W	ERA	WHIP	K	AVG	xFIP	SIERA	HardHit%
Stat	8	4.73	1.36	78	.264	4.59	4.78	43.8%
Ranking	T-13th	67th	T-60th	60th	63rd	63rd	69th	T-63rd

Sometimes we forget in fantasy that it's an accumulation of stats so while Gibson's 17.8% K% is in the 18th percentile, he's topped 100.0 IP and the total strikeouts aren't too bad. And eight wins at this point of the season is good. But that recent regression has limited Gibson to one win in his last six starts (against the Royals).

The Orioles improved offense has been a key factor in Gibson's wins but their defense hasn't helped matters. The Orioles infield ranks 22nd in Outs Above Average (OAA) with -8 and the outfield has -3 OAA (tied-19th).

The problem for Gibson is he only has one above-average pitch in his arsenal; the sweeper. It is the only pitch of the six he throws that has a Stuff+ rating of over 100 (106) but it's also only his third-most-thrown pitch (17.4%).

His most used pitch is the sinker which has a .297 xBA against it and a .400 xwOBA. His sweeper has a .224 xBA and .271 xwOBA while also sporting a 47.8% Whiff%. The issue is teams can load up on left-handed hitters (LHH), take away the effectiveness of his sweeper and almost neutralize Gibson.

If we look at his splits below, that's certainly been a problem for Gibson.

Split	TBF	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	K%	BB%
Vs RHH	213	.253	.315	.379	.343	18.8%	7.5%
Vs LHH	224	.286	.347	.447	.343	17.0%	8.5%

The fact Gibson has thrown 290 sweepers this year with only 29 of them being against LHH just highlights the problem Gibson has against lefites in that he can't use his best pitch and needs to rely on below-average offerings.

Verdict: Gibson is a streaming option only and even then, I'd be reluctant to use him unless I'm in need of a win and his opponents don't have many lefties in their lineup. That's a very narrow set of opportunities to use Gibson which is why I don't believe he's worth rostering except in very deep leagues.

 

Hold For Now

Jon Gray - SP, Texas Rangers - 85% rostered

While the Rangers offense has taken all the plaudits in the first half, their pitching staff has gone rather unnoticed but has been no less important to their success so far. They have a collective 3.68 ERA from starting pitching this year (fourth best) despite the season-ending injury to Jacob deGrom which limited him to just six starts.

Gray has been a huge reason why, with a 6-5 W-L record, 3.29 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 75 Ks in 16 starts (93.0 IP). Unfortunately, things have been regressing lately and over his last four starts, Gray has allowed 15 earned runs in 19.1 IP (6.98 ERA).

Gray relies largely on his fastball and slider, with the fastball accounting for 43.4% of pitches thrown and his slider 25.9% of total pitches. The problem is, his fastball is not particularly good.

We can see from the below graphic how Gray doesn't deviate away much from his usual pitch mix from start to start, with the fastball generally dominating proceedings followed by his slider. Gray's changeup (13.3%), sweeper (11.0%) and curveball (6.4%) don't factor in too much.

You'll notice how Gray's sweeper hasn't been thrown since his May 08 start which is when his slider was first thrown so it seems as though that pitch has just been reclassified.

To show you why throwing the fastball as often as Gray does is not a good thing, below is a breakdown of his pitches. His sweeper/slider have been separated for the purpose of this exercise.

Pitch	Usage	xBA	xSLG	xwOBA	Whiff%	Stuff+
Fastball	43.3%	.310	.511	.396	16.8%	81
Slider	25.9%	.196	.263	.216	38.9%	121
Changeup	13.3%	.240	.325	.272	23.5%	105
Sweeper	11.0%	.189	.304	.256	31.1%	N/a
Curveball	6.4%	.346	.646	.446	20.0%	80

Among the 61 qualified starters who have thrown a fastball this year, Gray's 81 Stuff+ ranks it as the tied-43rd best. Not exactly a ringing endorsement and the results have shown.

The real worry is Gray is already throwing it less this year than he has in his career so the usage has been dropped and it's still too much. Unless Gray overhauls the fastball (which won't happen in-season) or drastically drops its usage (unlikely to happen), things probably won't get better.

And the recent struggles can ultimately be put down to natural regression. Despite having a 2.23 ERA in his first 12 starts, Gray also had a 4.29 xFIP and 4.27 SIERA. On the year, Gray now has a 4.49 xFIP and 4.61 SIERA so it's fair to assume we may see his ERA continue to climb nearer to 4.00.

That's not a given and Gray can still provide fantasy value if he keeps the ERA under 4.00 as long as the Rangers offense continues to excel and give him wins. If the regression does continue after the All-Star Break and Gray's ERA continues climbing the way it has recently, then fantasy managers have a decision to make.

In fact, I'd probably look at trading Gray during the All-Star Break, before his value does begin to drop further as it's difficult to find a way for him to get back to being a ~3.00 ERA over the remainder of the season.

C.J. Cron - 1B, Colorado Rockies - 64% rostered

I generally try to avoid covering players who are recently back from an injury as we should really give them some time to get back into the groove of things before we decide whether or not we want them on our rosters again.

And after missing six weeks with a back issue, Cron only returned to the Rockies on June 27. The good news is Cron has been very good since returning, hitting .333/.353/.455 in 10 games since his activation from the IL.

Before the injury, Cron was hitting just .228/.277/.426 in 36 games. Across the entire season so far, Cron has seven homers, 23 RBI, 24 runs and no stolen bases with a .249/.291/.432 slash line (46 games).

In truth, that's not too bad of a fantasy line as it's a 162-game pace of 25 homers, 81 RBI, 85 runs and no steals. Over the previous two seasons, Cron has averaged 28.5 homers, 97 RBI, 74.5 runs and 0.5 steals with a .268 batting average (146 games). So this year wouldn't be far off those numbers.

Cron still possesses prodigious power with his 114.5 MPH maximum exit velocity in the 94th percentile and he's hit the fifth-longest home run of the year so far (479 feet). That's after hitting the furthest home run last year (504 feet).

Given Cron's injury layoff, we have a smaller sample to look at this year than most other players but it's still promising that his expected numbers are better than his actual numbers. Cron has a .270 xBA, .497 xSLG and .348 xwOBA (.307 wOBA).

And in a surprising quirk, five of his seven home runs have come on the road. In his previous two seasons with the Rockies, Cron hit 41 home runs at home and 16 on the road so again, this is a small sample that may alter as the season goes on but it's good to see Cron hit home runs on the road more freely.

There's a chance Cron's back issues were impacting him before he went on the IL as players do tend to try and play through things until they physically can't. So if he was suffering with his back a bit in the early going, it may account for the struggles.

Between the back issue being a possible cause of the struggles, how well he's hit since returning from the IL and the expected numbers, I'm optimistic that Cron can perform as we've seen over the last two seasons.

But as mentioned, this is a small sample, especially since his return from injury less than two weeks ago. So let's give Cron more time, see how things play out and providing he doesn't struggle badly or experience a reoccurrence of his back issue, Cron should be rostered with confidence.

Bobby Miller - SP, Los Angeles Dodgers - 63% rostered

Stop me if you've heard this, but Miller got off to a blistering start following his call-up to the Majors, with a 0.78 ERA over his first four starts (23.0 IP). Miller's next four starts saw him yield 20 earned runs in 21.0 IP.

The usual question has arisen; what is the real version of Miller? Well, no one expected him to have a sub-1.00 ERA for long and if we look at his eight starts individually, there's only been two really bad outings.

The below chart shows the ERA, FIP and xFIP from each of Miller's eight starts.

The chart clearly shows how Miller was outperforming his underlying numbers in the first four starts but has now regressed beyond the mean so hopefully we've had Miller's worst starts of the season and can move forward with more optimism.

Miller's numbers aren't bad at all, with a 5-1 W-L record, 4.50 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 42 Ks (44.0 IP). Given his Minor League numbers, we can hope for more strikeouts as Miller had 227 Ks in 183.0 IP. And with a 3.95 xFIP and 4.15 SIERA, as we've mentioned, his ERA should come back towards 4.00.

And there isn't a whole lot more to say about Miller. He's not the second coming of Sandy Koufax nor is he just some scrub. Miller is a good starting pitcher who I believe can be a top-30 option in the coming years.

Miller's got a slider that is ideal to put away RHH (with a 31.0% Whiff%) and a changeup that does the same to LHH (40.8% Whiff%) while his curveball can be effective against both (34.4% Whiff%).

The only letdown in Miller's arsenal is his sinker, which is also his most-used pitch (31.9%). That's the only pitch that doesn't have a Stuff+ rating of at least 100, rated at 97. It also has the highest xBA (.279), xSLG (.435) and xwOBA (.358) of his five pitches.

Maybe, if Miller can cut down on the sinker usage, we can see a pitcher with an ERA nearer 3.20 but for now, Miller is someone I anticipate having a ~4.00 ERA with plenty of wins and decent strikeouts this year. That's enough to keep him rostered in most leagues.

If Miller runs into more trouble after the All-Star Break and the ERA starts to move above 5.00 for a few games, then we will need to seriously consider pulling the plug in most leagues. In dynasty leagues, Miller is a must-hold regardless of how things pan out this year.

Joey Meneses - 1B/OF, Washington Nationals - 47% rostered

You may wonder why we have four players in the "Hold For Now" section and only two in the "Worth Dropping And Replacing" portion of The Cut List. Well, Meneses has flipped a switch and become the hitter we all wanted him to be this year.

Meneses entered Friday's game against the Rangers with only two homers. He's now homered three times in the last two games bringing his season line to five homers, 45 RBI, 33 runs and no steals with a .284/.326/.396 slash line (82 games).

Before Friday, Meneses ranked as the 312th overall player on Yahoo!, 30th at first base and 79th at outfield. Now, he ranks 26th among first basemen, 65th among outfielders and 235th overall.

On that basis alone, Meneses is a borderline rosterable player and is the reason I was ok with dropping him in shallow leagues (but still holding in deeper leagues). And my mantra of not making a decision based on a few games works both ways. But......

Meneses had a solid batting average and despite playing on a pretty weak offense, he was still hitting cleanup so had plenty of opportunities to provide value in the RBI and runs categories too. Only the power was really lacking.

Fantasy managers still remember his 13 home runs in 56 games last year and while that can be in part contributed to a flukey small sample, if he did it before, he can do it again, can't he? Would you bet against him homering again tonight and have a hot streak after the All-Star Break?

Of course, Meneses could come out of the few days off and struggle, going the rest of July without hitting a homer. In which case, he does re-enter the realms of droppable again. But I'm also loathe to drop someone who has had a big few games as if anything, their trade value has increased and you may be able to move him.

If we compare some of his numbers to last year, we can see that although there's been regression, it's been more significant than anticipated over the entire 2023 campaign so far.

Year	PA	xBA	xSLG	xwOBA	K%	BB%	Barrel%	HardHit%
2022	240	.267	.457	.332	21.7%	6.3%	9.9%	47.1%
2023	353	.241	.344	.310	19.8%	5.9%	5.8%	43.4%

Before Friday, only Tim Anderson was on a longer streak of plate appearances without a home run which should give you an idea of how badly Meneses had been struggling. After ending May with a .300 batting average, he only hit .237 from June 01 up until Friday.

As mentioned, he's hardly helped by playing for the Nationals. The team from the nation's capital ranks 26th in runs scored (266) so Meneses being on pace for ~80 RBI and ~60 runs is probably par for the course.

Overall, Meneses was a borderline player in standard leagues and I'm not going to completely change course because of a couple of big games. But I will take credit for his recent surge in power as prior to Friday's games, I made the below trade in a dynasty league (I am the Kerimville Otters manager).

To give some context, it's a 24-team dynasty points league with 40-man MLB rosters and 30-man MiLB rosters so there's nothing on waivers, I'm in second place and have suffered a few injuries so needed a bat and Meneses had been decent with the way the points are weighted.

Joking aside, Meneses has done enough that if you were rostering him and were thinking about moving on, you'll now be holding. But don't hold for too long as if this is just a one-off series where he crushes the ball and reverts back to his struggling ways over the remainder of July, you won't want to be caught waiting for another big couple of games.

 

On the Hot Seat

Salvador Perez - C, Kansas City Royals - 97% rostered

As you know, I don't let a cold streak dictate whether someone should be dropped, especially if they're one of the top fantasy players. And there aren't enough reliable catchers in fantasy that I trust so someone like Perez certainly warrants a long leash.

That's why I'm not considering dropping him right now but this stretch of non-production is concerning and for more than just the usual reason.

At the end of June, Perez underwent a procedure on his left eye to help clear up some issues with his vision, something he had done previously in 2020 and 2022. The condition is 'central serous chorioretinopathy' which requires laser treatment to drain fluid from behind the eye.

Salvador Perez had an eye procedure yesterday that helped clear up his vision, a similar procedure he’s had before. That’s why he’s not in the lineup today, but he could be available as early as a pinch-hit tonight, Matt Quatraro said. #Royals

— Anne Rogers (@anne__rogers) June 27, 2023

It didn't do him any harm in 2022 as he homered twice in his first game back after the procedure and finished the year with 23 homers. Although Perez homered twice in his first game back following the eye procedure in 2022, it's been a completely different story this time around.

In nine games since then, Perez has hit .094/.194/.094 and he's struck out 33.3% of the time. Over the season so far, Perez has been good with a .245/.286/.435 line, 15 homers, 40 RBI, 36 runs and no stolen bases (80 games). That's left him ranked sixth at the catcher position.

I'm no medical professional and don't know if the eye issue hasn't been cleared up or if it's just coincidental that his cold streak has happened at this time, but Perez hit just .184/.225/.263 with a 35.0% K% in the ten games prior to the procedure.

Over the last 30 days, Perez is ranked as the 36th catcher on Yahoo!, which gives you an idea of how much he's struggled in recent weeks. He actually went up four places by not playing yesterday. His wOBA over the last 50, 100 and 250 plate appearances is a good visual indicator of this.

Perez has always had a low walk rate so his 3.6% BB% is unlikely related to his struggles and his 24.7% K% is similar to what he's had in the previous three seasons combined (24.3% K%).

And we are talking about small samples which is why I'm not looking at doing anything like dropping Perez any time soon. But he's certainly someone I want to monitor following the All-Star Break. If we reach the end of July and he's still slumping badly, then we can start to panic a little bit.

It's unlikely there'd be any catcher on waivers that you'd want to drop Perez for at any point considering what he can do and what we've seen him do over the years. But that's not to say we shouldn't be worried if his cold streak becomes a down season.

If we reach August and you're in 'win-now' mode or chasing to make up ground in your leagues, running with the hot hand at catcher and playing matchups might not be such a bad idea. At some point, Perez might not be one of the undroppable catchers anymore.

 

Reddit Requests

As in previous years, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread and there's a good chance they will feature. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on Twitter (@Baseball_Jimbo) and we'll ensure to cover at least three requests each week.

Max Muncy - 2B/3B, Los Angeles Dodgers - 93% rostered

Similarly to Cron, I didn't want to include Muncy given he's only just back from an IL stint but his name was probably the most popular on the Reddit thread last week and I like to give the people what they want. So I'm including him this week.

Muncy missed a couple of weeks with a hamstring strain and his numbers before the injury (.191/.323/.474) aren't too dissimilar to his numbers since returning on June 27 (.231/.375/.487). But they have certainly improved to what we'd like to see from Muncy the rest of this season.

Over the course of the season, Muncy is hitting .198/.331/.476 with 21 homers, 53 RBI, 47 runs and one stolen base (72 games). That's a 162-game pace of 47 homers, 119 RBI, 106 runs and two stolen bases. That would put Muncy inside the top-100 players for next season with only the batting average stopping him from ranking even higher.

Despite missing two weeks and a sub-.200 batting average, Muncy is still ranked 116th overall on Yahoo!, 13th at second base and 15th at third base. It's the individual categories where Muncy really provides his value.

The below table shows where Muncy ranks across the five main scoring categories overall and the two individual positions he's eligible for. The batting average was ranked among players with at least 200 plate appearances.

Ranking	HR	RBI	R	SB	AVG
Overall	T-11th	T-28th	T-44th	T-265th	T-237th
Second base	3rd	5th	T-7th	T-72nd	32nd
Third base	1st	T-7th	T-10th	T-58th	33rd

There's no getting away from the fact Muncy's batting average is detrimental to his fantasy value. And with 12 stolen bases in his previous seven seasons in the Majors, you weren't drafting him for the speed. The batting average is the issue.

There is some good news on that front, however. Muncy has a .192 BABIP which is the lowest among all 151 qualified hitters. Someone who strikes out a lot and makes less contact than most will have a lower BABIP but over the previous three seasons, Muncy had a .218 AVG and .236 BABIP.

Muncy's 27.4% K% is a career-high since his 2015 debut, but you'd still expect better results than he has so far. And Muncy's expected numbers tell a similar story, with a .226 xBA. If his batting average does get up to ~.220, that can make a significant difference to his fantasy value.

As long as Muncy is hitting homers, driving in runs and scoring them, he'll retain fantasy value. In OBP leagues or points leagues, he becomes even more valuable and isn't someone I'd be considering dropping in any format right now.

Starling Marte - OF, New York Mets - 85% rostered

Marte's fantasy value has always been through his stolen bases and batting average. That generally had led to hitting in the top part of the batting order no matter where he's been. After a slow start this year, Marte was bumped down from the number two spot to (normally) sixth in the order.

That's the key indicator as to how much Marte was struggling earlier in the season. After thirty games, he had one homer, eight RBI, 11 runs and nine stolen bases with a .213/.292/.278 slash line. That's when the change came and Marte was shifted down the lineup.

Following the move, Marte went on to hit .300/.336/.382 with two homers, 10 RBI, 16 runs and 10 steals in 31 games. Marte then moved up the order again to number two for 14 games and hit .237/.274/.322. He's moved back down the order this week and has gone 7-for-24.

For whatever reason, it seems as though Marte is performing considerably better when he's hitting lower down the order than when he's hitting second. From a fantasy standpoint, it'd be much better if he could perform better as the number two hitter but we'll have to make do.

If we look at Marte's rolling average, it gives us a visual of how he's peaked and slumped which has seemingly coincided with his position in the batting order.

Overall on the season, Marte has a .217/.282/.283 line hitting second (182 plate appearances) and a .304/.344/.409 slash line hitting sixth (123 plate appearances). All in all, Marte is hitting .256/.309/.336 with five homers, 28 RBI, 37 runs and 23 stolen bases (82 games) this year.

According to Yahoo!, Marte ranks 145th overall and 45th among outfielders. That alone has made him rosterable in pretty much any league size and any number of starting outfielders in your lineups.

The fact he's sixth overall in stolen bases makes Marte a valuable commodity in itself so certainly isn't someone I'm looking at dropping, even if the RBI and run totals are uninspiring.

And there's some more good news for Marte's fantasy managers. He's got pretty decent expected numbers compared to his actual line. Marte's .273 xBA is in the 81st percentile and is nearly identical to last year's .276 xBA when he hit .292.

Marte also has a .421 xSLG and is the ninth biggest difference between his actual SLG among the 268 qualified hitters according to Statcast. It shouldn't come as a surprise if Marte performs better after the All-Star Break and performs more like the Marte we expected when we drafted him.

Lars Nootbaar - OF, St Louis Cardinals - 46% rostered

A popular sleeper pick in fantasy drafts this year, but like the Cardinals, Nootbaar has failed to meet expectations. After 59 games, Nootbaar has a .260/.361/.381 slash line, five homers, 25 RBI, 36 runs and five stolen bases.

Nootbaar is a prime example of why I say you shouldn't just look at a player's Statcast Profile and use it as the be-all-and-end-all of someone's production and fantasy value. Nootbaar's looks like it could belong to someone in the top 50 hitters this year.

Although not counted in standard leagues, part of Nootbaar's appeal was his excellent walk rate (13.8% BB%) which, when coupled with his good speed, makes Nootbaar a perfect leadoff candidate.

And Nootbaar has hit first in 32 games this year. But he's also started in every position in the lineup except fourth, fifth and sixth. That's really symbolic of how bad the Cardinals have been and seemingly don't know what their best lineup is or how to turn their season around.

Nootbaar has been a regular in the Cardinals lineup and generally has been hitting in the top three spots when they face a right-handed pitcher (RHP) but usually drops down to the number nine spot against LHP.

Given he has a .274/.367/.427 slash line against righties (192 PA) and .216/.344/.235 against lefties (61 PA), that makes sense. Although the Cardinal's season hasn't been good, their offense has been the only positive, ranking 12th in runs scored (411). So, Nootbaar should still tally RBI and runs at a decent pace.

It's the power that has been lacking somewhat as after hitting 14 homers in 108 games last year, believing he can hit 20 over a full season wasn't expecting too much. Two IL stints have limited Nootbaar this year but if he can stay healthy now, Nootbaar can have a decent second half.

That's not to say he'll be a top-50 outfielder and should be rostered everywhere. But if you are a bit short on runs, Nootbaar is a perfect target for you and he won't harm your other stats either.

In shallower leagues, there are likely better options in the outfield than Nootbaar but I certainly think he can be the sort of player that deeper league managers like to just plug into the lineup and although they know he won't win them a league, Nootbaar won't tank their team either.

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