RotoBaller PGA: One And Done Staff Picks - The PGA Championship

May 17, 2023

The PGA RotoBaller staff digs into their One and Done selections for The PGA Championship. Here are some under-the-radar plays and picks for this week's event.

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the weekly PGA “One and Done” column will be back for the fourth season.

For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and FanDuel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course which highlights the best fits for the week's course. And you can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week.

Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

One and Done Selections - The PGA Championship

In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar, Andrew Putters, Josh Bennett, Byron Lindeque and our special guest will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!

Joe Nicely - Dustin Johnson

Alternate - Brooks Koepka 

With this OAD contest officially at “Nightmare Fuel” levels for me, I don’t really have anything to lose at this point. As a result, I’ll go off script this week and swing for the fences with my old pal Dustin Johnson, a player that’s been a major-championship stalwart for years.

Now that DJ has jumped ship to LIV, there are obviously some concerns about how sharp his game is, though a win last week at the Tulsa event that featured a pair of 63s does ease the mind a bit.

Johnson has long been the prototype golfer that we want to target on long, hard, classical golf courses, and his record on Oak Hill comp courses (and Oak Hill itself, he had a T8 in the 2013 PGA) is phenomenal.

Yearly Earnings - $2,785,288
Yearly Cuts Made - 16/17

Josh Bennett - Patrick Cantlay

Alternate - Jon Rahm

I imagine I won’t be the only one using Cantlay this week, as he appears to be a very popular name whether you’re looking at DFS, betting, OAD, anything really. He’s being used for a lot of good reasons though, and a lot of them are ones I can’t pass up on. Obviously, a very elite golfer and in solid form for quite some time. His one big knock is that he hasn’t closed down a major yet, but we have to remember how extremely difficult that is to do. I’m not concerned about that, I think he has a golf game that can fit pretty much any golf course (especially a major-quality one) and knows how to win, there is no reason he can’t win a major. Also, the addition of Lacava on his bag may not be pumped up enough, anyone that has access to Tiger-level knowledge is automatically just going to be a greater golfer. Plus, as we’ve seen, caddie changes on tour so far have mostly resulted in really good success, I can’t see how this would do anything but make Cantlay a way better golfer (which is saying something, considering how good he was before). Honestly, the only thing that could hold him back this week is if someone finally decides to do something about his egregiously slow play. Otherwise, I’m looking for Cantlay to be scaring the top of the leaderboard this week.

Yearly Earnings -$5,386,042
Yearly Cuts Made - 13/17

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Spencer Aguiar - Jason Day

Alternate - Joaquin Niemann (My second pick in OAD contests)

In the words of the great Doyle Brunson, "A man with money is no match against a man on a mission."

We have watched Jason Day go through the ultimate ups and downs with his career over the past few years, highlighted by injuries, illnesses and general poor play. That level of disappointment for a star that had already reached the pinnacle of his sport and was watching a real-time fall from grace would have shattered a much weaker person than Day, but "quitter" is not a word I would use to describe the Aussie.

Resilient, talented, fearless, brilliant, handsome, energetic, brave, ambitious, sincere, marvelous, skillful, athletic, gifted, accomplished, proficient, generous, GOAT, prodigy, artist, master and dedicated might be better adjectives for arguably the greatest player of our generation.We could have gone on for much longer, but RotoBaller isn't going to continue paying me $1 a word if I use half the space on the website to describe a single player out of 156 (albeit the most important of all names).

As a professional bettor, I have always learned not to leave the table when you are on a heater, and you would have to bring half the city of Las Vegas to pry me away from selecting Day this week.

WE ARE SOOOOOO BACK!!!!!

Yearly Earnings - $3,676,604
Yearly Cuts Made - 11/17

Byron Lindeque - Patrick Cantlay

Tommy Tables had me flipping tables after he made 7 birdies in a round to only shoot -2. Golly, what a tilt factory last week was from Bogey Hoge! PGA Championship time for the Ketchup Kings and we are leaving two available of the Big 3 (which is now really, the Big 2) on the shelf for the last two majors … maybe.

We are in need of a little magic and an influx of millions of dollars to our OAD bank account here at Ketchup Kings LLC, and if anybody can pull a $2,700,000 rabbit out a hat, its Pat. We are rolling with hat trick Patrick Cantlay at a venue that demands an exceptional all around game, which Cantlay has at the 5th shortest outright odds on the board, making him semi-contrarian with the public likely playing A LOT of Xander, Rahm, and Scheffler.

The reason we are going to roll the dice on Patty Ice is because he ranks inside the top 5 in SG OTT (4th), Bent 5-15 feet (2nd), Bogey Avoidance (1st) and Par 5 Scoring (1st - there are four Par 4s over 480 yards in addition to the pair of 600+ yard Par 5s). These are all key criteria I will be using to whittle down my player pool this week. The Dewalt DareDevil’s dominance on Bentgrass putting surfaces is something he will lean on mightily when having to sink his fair share of 5-15 foot par putts along with the rest of the field in some really difficult scoring conditions.

His driver has been an absolute weapon lately, blending distance with accuracy in a stress free way that will make it easier for him to hit enough greens in regulation to avoid running out of short game magic (which he has plenty of if need be) over the four days. Like a bad case of lice it's gonna be tough to shake Patty Ice from the top of the leaderboard.

Yearly Earnings - $6,523,070
Yearly Cuts Made - 15/17

Andrew Putters - Brooks Koepka

Alternate - Jason Day

I guess I am falling in line with this pick. There is not a lot of data to back up this play and before this year’s Masters, I would have never suggested. The fact of the matter is Brooks is back. After listening to his interview on Pardon My Take, I am all in on Brooks. Two other veterans I would recommend are Jason Day and Patrick Reed. Both have played well as of late including Day’s win at the Byron Nelson on Mother’s Day. 

Yearly Earnings - $3,128,319
Yearly Cuts Made - 13/17

Mia The Model - Chris Kirk

Alternate - Wyndham Clark

Byron T20

TeeOff T20

*** All previous picks removed!

Aggregated Results

One of the significant differences you will notice is that I attached the aforementioned percent weight to each player when I randomized the list for the week. That means an option like Patrick Cantlay got rewarded for being a better option for our models (which we see with his 18% chance) all the way down to the bottom of our board in Chris Kirk, Cameron Smith, Cameron Young and Rickie Fowler – four golfers that received 5% of the projected pick equity.

We agreed on randomizing the list five times to settle on the name, and Mia has decided she wants to roll with Chris Kirk this week as the selection and Wyndham Clark as the alternate.

Let us know what you think of her chances this week!

Yearly Earnings - $9,411,812
Yearly Cuts Made - 15/17

Running Totals

Follow along here on the OAD Spreadsheet!

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