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Today's free MLB prop betting picks for Wednesday, May 10, 2023. Use Casey Wilson's top baseball prop picks and MLB prop bet recommendations to win money on sportsbooks.
We get our first day slate of the week as MLB games start at 12:35 ET today. Day games sometimes seem a bit wonky, so I try to be a bit lighter with my bets. I only have a few more plays outside the ones I’ve written in this article, so I have a tiny card today. We get a lefty against the Brewers, and it’s Pablo Lopez day here again at RotoBaller. Let’s pick some winners.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Wednesday, May 10, 2023. I will continue to hone in on K props first, as they are the most lucrative, and we will follow that with my patented stolen base props. Let's look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games without further ado! Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Clayton Kershaw OVER 7.5 strikeouts (-128 FanDuel Sportsbook)
We have been attacking the Brewers all season with left-handed pitching, and today we get one of the goats toeing the rubber. Kershaw has been throwing the ball exceptionally well, as he has struck out nine, six, nine, and seven batters in his last four starts. Kershaw has a 28.4% K% in 2023 with an elite 15.1% SwStr%.
The Brewers lead baseball with a 30.5% K% against left-handed pitching. They are also dead last in wRC+ and SLG and the second-worst in wOBA and ISO. This team has been dreadful against lefties, and Kershaw has been throwing the rock much better lately. His line on DraftKings is currently at 8.5 with some juice. If you want better odds with a higher number, play it over there.
Pablo Lopez OVER 6.5 strikeouts (+108 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Pablo Lopez has been our go-to when it comes to K props. I can assure you I'm not getting off the train now. After spending a summer at Driveline, Lopez has taken his game to the next level. Lopez in 2023 has a 30.7% K% and a 14.6% SwStr%. He has seven or more strikeouts in six of seven starts this season. In the one lone start, he didn’t get to that plateau; he had six.
The Padres are third in baseball against right-handed pitching with a 25.6% K%. They do have some intimidating bats in the middle of the lineup, but even they strike out at a decent clip. We saw Louie Varland strike out six last night in this very matchup. I love the safety of Lopez, and until he proves me otherwise, I will continue to ride him.
Eduardo Rodriguez UNDER 5.5 strikeouts (-130 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Eduardo Rodriguez has been pitching out of his mind this season after missing most of 2022 due to personal reasons. He faces the Guardians here today at Progressive Field. E-Rod has a 23.9% K% and a 9.9% SwStr% this season. He has struck out six or more in three of his seven starts this year, including 10 against this Guardians team.
The Guardians remain one of the toughest teams to strike out this season. They had the lowest K% in baseball in 2022. Against lefties in 2023, the Guardians have a 21.0% K%. They have struggled to a 76 wRC+ and that was a big reason Rodriguez achieved what he did last time out against them, as he went eight innings and only allowed four hits. I think the Guardians will get it going a bit more against him here. We will see a typical outing out of Rodriguez, allowing under six strikeouts to be achievable.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Aaron Judge OVER 1.5 total bases (+100 DraftKings SportsBook)
I have a rule that when Aaron Judge faces a lefty, we bet his total bases prop. Today he faces Kyle Muller, who is about as pedestrian as they come. Muller has a .385 wOBA, .157 ISO, 47.5% hard-hit, and only a 14.2% K% against right-handed hitters this season.
Since the start of last season, Judge has a .387 wOBA, .316 ISO, and a 51.5% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching. He does have a 31.3% K%, but Muller does not have the swing-and-miss stuff that will worry us here. The ball should be put in play and more than likely hit hard. Let’s hope BABIP is on our side.
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