RotoBaller PGA: One And Done Staff Picks - The AT&T Byron Nelson

May 10, 2023

The PGA RotoBaller staff digs into their One and Done selections for The AT&T Byron Nelson. Here are some under-the-radar plays and picks for this week's event.

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the weekly PGA “One and Done” column will be back for the fourth season.

For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and FanDuel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course which highlights the best fits for the week's course. And you can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week.

Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

One and Done Selections - The AT&T Byron Nelson

In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar, Andrew Putters, Josh Bennett, Byron Lindeque and our special guest will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!

Joe Nicely - Tom Kim

Alternate - Brandon Wu

It's kinda hard to believe that when playing in last year's AT&T Byron Nelson, Tom Kim had absolutely no status on the PGA Tour. Between Kim’s slow start to 2023, as well as the consistent dominance of Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler, it’s easy to forget just what this young man accomplished at the end of last year at just 20-years-old, which was two wins on the PGA Tour inside of two months.

Those victories were in events - Wyndham & Shriners - that required lots of birdies to win, which is exactly what will be required this week at a TPC Craig Ranch course that could be labeled as “easy” if we’re being nice.

Kim’s ball striking has been trending in the right direction again lately - and was never really bad - he just hasn’t been able to heat up the putter to it’s 2022 temperature. Maybe that happens this week in his adopted hometown of Dallas, where he’ll be sleeping in his own bed and have plenty of fan support.

Yearly Earnings - $2,739,847
Yearly Cuts Made - 15/16

Josh Bennett - Tom Kim

Alternate - Tyrrell Hatton

Last week my pick was a “feel” pick, that didn’t work out so great. This week, going based off of something I know about the course and know about Tom Kim. Many of the holes on this course are long, with the exception of a very short par 3 and a couple very short par 4’s that keep the total yardage from approaching like 8,000 yards. So, people to target on courses like this are those that hit the ball really far off the tee, or those that are top talent with long irons. Although Tom Kim has certainly added distance recently (honestly, maybe has hurt him if you consider his recent form), since playing on the PGA he’s been known to be a great ball-striker with longer clubs in his hand. In addition, the greens are on the smaller side here, so even though he would likely miss more greens from being far away, others will be missing a good amount of greens as well just because of the size of them, which brings a “shorter” hitter like Tom Kim more into play. He finished 17^th here last year, and hoping with a lot more experience under his belt he can improve on that on a course that should suit him pretty well.

Yearly Earnings -$5,340,601
Yearly Cuts Made - 12/16

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Spencer Aguiar - Adam Scott

Alternate - Seamus Power

It has been a missed-cut barrage from me this season. I have missed more weekends through 16 events than if we took the first three years of this contest and added all my failed picks together. None of that is ideal...

Needing a big score but not having the pieces in this event (or in my holster), I will go with the golfer I believe is the most underrated this week when we talk about Adam Scott.

The Aussie ranked first in my model for expected scoring in this field because of his high-end returns for putting, something I think we can bet on when we also consider he has provided 21 consecutive made cuts worldwide.

Yearly Earnings - $3,398,729
Yearly Cuts Made - 10/16

Byron Lindeque - Tom Hoge

Matt Fitzpatrick’s performance at the Wells Fargo (T35) was essentially Earl Grey tea - sounds fancy but at the end of the day it is just warm water that tastes like grass. Moving on.

Tommy “Tables” Hogey leads the field in weighted good shot percentage (shots that gain +0.5 strokes) from key proximity ranges around TPC Craig Ranch. When he is on, Hoge is an elite iron player. We saw an example of this when he broke the course record around TPC Sawgrass only 3 stroke play starts ago. 

Hoge is the ideal OAD target as he tends to convert on made cuts, with the third highest top-10 rate in the field at 22% (we won’t mention his made cut rate of …. 56%). If he makes the cut, we can expect him to provide a lot of upside and I truly believe this course is an ideal set up for the most explosive iron player in the field. He is also makes the 3rd-most birdies and is 27th in putting from 5 to 15 feet on Bentgrass (slightly better than his baseline). There is a lot to like about Tom this week and if he can make it to the weekend we really like our chances.

Yearly Earnings - $6,492,955
Yearly Cuts Made - 14/16

Andrew Putters - Scott Stallings

Alternate - K.H. Lee

This is “go big or go home” week for me. My pick this week is strictly a course comfort play. Scott makes a lot of sense with his history at TPC Craig Ranch. Also, Scott has had a much needed couple weeks off to be at home with family. I know it’s hard to look past TPC Lee with back to back titles on this course, but I am playing the odds that Lee will not three-peat. With this selection, I am willing to take some risk here that this is somewhat of a chameleon play against the field. 

Yearly Earnings - $3,128,319
Yearly Cuts Made - 13/16

Mia The Model - Tyrrell Hatton

Alternate - Tom Hoge

Byron T20

TeeOff T20

*** All previous picks removed!

Aggregated Results

One of the significant differences you will notice is that I attached the aforementioned percent weight to each player when I randomized the list for the week. That means an option like Tyrrell Hatton got rewarded for being a better option for our models (which we see with his 15% chance) all the way down to the bottom of our board in Stephan Jaeger, Si Woo Kim, Eric Cole, Aaron Rai and Aaron Wise – five golfers that received 5% of the projected pick equity.

We agreed on randomizing the list five times to settle on the name, and Mia has decided she wants to roll with Tyrrell Hatton this week as the selection and Tom Hoge as the alternate.

Let us know what you think of her chances this week!

Yearly Earnings - $9,060,312
Yearly Cuts Made - 14/16

Running Totals

Follow along here on the OAD Spreadsheet!

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