Flag Hunting: PGA Betting Picks - The Masters

Ian McNeill's free PGA betting picks. Ian provides analysis and an introductory guide to golf live betting on the PGA Tour by making selections both before and during the 2023 Masters tournament at Augusta National.

As the frost recedes and Earth slips into her favorite shade of green, 88 of the best golfers on the planet will play for the right to do the very same. 

It’s Masters week, and what a compelling tournament we have in store.

From significant changes made to the iconic 13th hole, to LIV Golf’s first appearance on golf’s most grandiose stage, and a weather forecast that threatens to turn Augusta National into a shooting gallery, there is no shortage of wrenches being thrown into our typical Masters’ process. The only thing I can guarantee is storylines, so whether you're a golf purist or a casual sports fan looking for a post-March fix, strap in and let the soulful melodies of Ray Charles and the dulcet tones of Jim Nantz wash over you. Georgia's on the mind - let's break down the 2023 Masters.

The Golf Course

I’ll save y’all the exposition on what is far and away the most recognizable golf course in the world. There have been plenty of passages written to romanticize golf's most picturesque routing, so instead, let's get into the facts and figures you'll need at front of mind when handicapping the year's first major.

Despite its status as one of the tougher overall tests in the sport, if Augusta does have a "soft underbelly," it is in the generosity afforded to players off-the-tee. Augusta National features the second widest fairways on the PGA Tour, and for a Major Championship venue, the rough is about as benign as you'll ever see: ranking 17th on the schedule in Rough Penalty.

Augusta also ranks middle of the pack in non-rough penalty - meaning that even wide misses outside of the rough line will give players an opportunity to manufacture a shot, and only a select few tee shots come with a significant threat of penalty stroke.

As such, distance means as much to me this week as perhaps any week on Tour, and guys that traditionally excel in more positional, precision-based driving tests will have those advantages nullified - particularly if forecasted rain and temperatures in the 50s and 60s soften up these fairways even further.

Another byproduct of the additional length in recent years has been a reduction of the shot-shaping demands this venue had become known for. 

Patrick Cantlay spoke on this on the "No Laying Up" podcast last week: “They've moved so many of the tee boxes so far back, that it really doesn't matter if you shape it right-to-left, or left-to-right. Basically, every hole, a straight ball >300 yards is what you're looking for.”

For better or worse, Augusta National seems to have adopted a more clinical, execution-based mantra off-the-tee as opposed to the artistry we've become accustomed to seeing on holes like the 5th, 10th, and 13th. However, there is still room in the week for the shot-shaping virtuosos to separate themselves from the pack. That starts as we move past the tee shots, and into Augusta's famous green complexes.

The second shot and beyond is where Augusta National really begins to show its teeth. The greens at the Masters routinely rank as some of the most difficult on Tour to stick close, and despite being above-average in square footage, the minute shelves these holes will be cut on effectively turns these complexes into some of the smallest we'll see all year.

As you'd expect from a major championship venue, Augusta National places a heavy emphasis on middle and long-iron play. Over 70% of approach shots last year came from outside of 150 yards, and given the softer course conditions we expect this year, you can expect the significance of long-iron aptitude to only grow in importance.

However, the softer conditions could very well play into the players' hands coming into these greens, as tournament organizers will find it nearly impossible to prevent a waterlogged Augusta National from being more receptive to incoming approaches.

We've seen Hideki go on a birdie barrage out of a Saturday PM rain delay in 2021, and the 2020 fall iteration was played to a record-low score in softer conditions. I hesitate to predict anyone will make their way to (-20) again, but birdie chances should be much more attainable as players gain confidence in their ability to control distance.

If players aren't able to hit these greens in regulation, they'll be faced with the most difficult greens on Tour to get the ball up and down. Tightly mown collection areas and deep greenside bunkers will be quick to expose short-game deficiencies, and much like the approach shots I mentioned earlier, players will have to be incredibly precise when picking a landing area around the greens.

From Scottie Scheffler, to Hideki, DJ, Tiger, Reed, Sergio, Spieth, and Willet, short-game acumen has been as reliable of an indicator for success around Augusta as any course history trend you can find. Winners on average have come into the Masters gaining over a stroke and a half around the greens per tournament, and although the potential for softer green complexes could certainly inflate GIR percentages, I'd still expect scrambling to play a key role in determining the outcome this week.

And finally, the green complexes themselves. With its severe slopes and undulation, it should come as no surprise that Augusta National ranks as the most difficult set of greens to putt on on the entire PGA Tour. From 5-15 feet, only the tricky poa annua of Pebble Beach, Torrey Pines, and Riviera concede less makes, and Augusta has no peers from 15 feet and beyond.

Interestingly enough, we have seen historically poor putters like Hideki Matsuyama, Sergio Garcia, and Will Zalatoris have repeated success on these greens. We've also seen players struggle on these greens that routinely rank at the top of year-long putting charts (Patrick Cantlay, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tyrrell Hatton to name a few).

This leads me to believe more in experience around these grounds as opposed to actual putting acumen. As oftentimes at Augusta, the question is less about the putting stroke you possess, and more about the putt you leave yourself. From 15 feet above the hole around these complexes, even the best in the world can be made to look foolish.

Scouting the Routing

For those looking to dabble in the live market this week, it will be imperative to identify both the birdie opportunities around Augusta National as well as the holes where par will gain you significant ground.

With a scoring average of nearly two-over par last year (the 3rd most difficult course on the schedule after Brookline and Southern Hills), it's no surprise that birdie chances at Augusta National are few and far between. Outside of the four Par 5's that all feature birdie rates north of 30% and eagle rates from 1-3%, only two other holes on the property (3 and 16) yield birdies at a greater than 15% rate.

The lack of chances players will get on the one and two-shotters make Par 5 scoring even more important on a week like this. Since 2009, Par 5 scoring at the Masters has accounted for 72% of the winner's total output, and the last two champions (Scheffler and Matsuyama), have combined to play the Par 5's at a resounding (-19) - a whopping 95% of their total scoring for the week!

In fact, since 2017, only two of the last six champions have played the Par 3s and 4s at better than (-2) for the week, which underlies my initial point on the 14 other holes around ANGC. If you can routinely take advantage of the Par 5's, par is almost always a good score everywhere else.

Nine of the 18 holes in Augusta's routing would categorize as "Bogey Avoidance Opportunities," meaning that a par on any one of them would cut the average field by around two-tenths of a stroke. In particular, 1, 4, 5, 10, 11, and 18 stand out to me as the major obstacles: each carrying a bogey or worse rate of 28-36% and holding a cumulative scoring average of (+1.62) between the six of them.

When monitoring potential adds in the live market, it is essential for a player to get through the 12th hole unscathed before I assess their prospects as an investment. The first three holes on the second nine here can undo a lot of hard work, but the five-hole stretch directly after presents some of the clearest birdie chances on the property. If a player can stay afloat around this demanding stretch, you can guarantee he'll be gaining strokes to the field.

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

The Betting Card

Scottie Scheffler (10-1): While Rory and Rahm should both be respected, there’s no doubt in my mind that Scheffler should still be considered the clear favorite on odds boards. The bet I've made at 10-1 (Post-PLAYERS Championship), might be the biggest outright golf wager I've ever made, and I think he's far and away the safest name on the board if you want a name in the mix on Sunday. 

From a pure ball-striking perspective (Driving + Iron Play), I don't even think Rahm or Rory can touch Scottie when he's in his zone, and if he brings anywhere near the same short-game prowess he displayed around these green complexes last year, the field is in for another long week. The only argument you could make against Scottie would be in regards to the vulnerabilities we’ve seen pop up with the putter (particularly inside of 6-8 feet). However, he also happens to possess one of the better combinations of lag putting + short game in the field, so many of those 5-10 footers will be for birdie rather than par.

Either way, there are only two potential outcomes this week: 1.) We get a classic Masters duel to the finish, or 2) Scottie brings his Sunday best and CBS has to scramble for the second straight year to cover the fight for second on Sunday afternoon. Scheffler hasn’t finished worse than 12th in any Tour event since the CJ Cup last October, and we’ve seen him make a habit of lapping some of the best fields in world golf. He's the only player in this field with that combination of stability and upside.

Patrick Cantlay (22-1):  I'm pretty certain I've picked Patrick Cantlay to win the last two Masters before this, and with the way he's playing to start the year, there’s no way I’m jumping off in 2023. The appeal of Pat's profile was always that he doesn't have a discernable hole in his game, but Cantlay is now starting to build some prolific ball-striking upside into his skillset in 2023. 

Cantlay has been the best total driver of the ball on the PGA Tour to start the season, picking up some significant speed in the process: (currently places 8th in Driving Distance; right between Scottie Scheffler and Sam Burns since the start of the year). 

Cantlay also possesses some gaudy mid/long iron splits coming into this week, as he's one of just six names in the field to rank inside the Top 25 in each of my key proximity ranges (150-175, 175-200, 200+). Couple this recent ball-striking form with a prolific bentgrass history and a sneaky run of 14th and 8th in his last two major appearances, and I think everything is coming together for the long-awaited Cantlay Major Breakthrough. 

Xander Schauffele (25-1): Between J.T., Finau, Morikawa, etc., 25-35/1 was definitely the most difficult range to navigate for me, but no matter where I looked this week, the stats pointed me to Xander Schauffele. Xander’s legitimately been on one of the more under-reported iron runs we've seen in recent memory: gaining an average of 3.5 strokes per tournament on Approach over his last 8 starts. He also happens to rank as the best player in the field on approaches from over 200 yards. 

Xander also possesses a fantastic short game, one of the most trustworthy putting strokes of anyone in the field, and two Top 3 finishes at Augusta National over his last 4 starts. I find it really strange that Rory got so much credit for his Match Play run (moving from 10 to 7-1 after making the semi-finals), yet Xander has remained largely forgotten despite outplaying Rory for the better part of their QF match. There are many compelling cases to be made in the mid-20s, but I think the 29-year-old Californian represents the best option we have in a dark horse to topple the titans at the top of the board.

The Shortlist

With three names under 25-1, I've already used up the entirety of my budget for the week. However, that doesn't mean I'm going to be short-changing y'all on some of the names that just missed a place on my outright card. If you don't want to pay up for Scottie, or disagree with my position on Cantlay/Xander, here are some other options to consider:

Justin Thomas (22-1): If we're assessing objective value from prices posted at the start of the year, Justin Thomas at 22-1 should be grabbing everyone's attention. At just 29 years old, JT already possesses a stellar Masters track record (Six T30s in six starts including a 4th in 2020 and a T8 here last year). Thomas also brings with him one of the better short games in the golfing world (gaining nearly 2.5 shots per tournament around the greens this year), and an all-around tee-to-green profile that suits this course to a tee. The lack of recent high-end results leaves a bit to be desired considering Justin's superstar status, but it's been far from a disastrous run of form (Six Top 25s in seven starts; two T10s). Gun to my head, I think JT nabs a green jacket at some point in his career. Getting 22-1 on your money to chase it this year makes a lot of sense.

Collin Morikawa (28-1): It's been an up-and-down year for those of us on Team Morikawa. We've certainly seen some flashes of the kid that burst onto the scene to win two majors before the age of 25, but we've also gotten plenty of evidence that suggests he isn't quite over the scar tissue of collapses past. One thing is for sure though: the iron play is back to its elite status, as Morikawa gained a whopping 9.4 shots on approach in his last start at the PLAYERS Championship, and hasn't lost strokes on approach since the Scottish Open last July. He's got an ability that not a lot of guys can hang with, but certainly not the well-rounded game of his peers at the top of the world rankings. It's tough to win at Augusta as a one-note tune, but the weather forecasts could be doing ball-strikers like Morikawa a real service; as his iron play becomes exponentially more dangerous if he can trust the greens to hold.

Max Homa (35-1): There is certainly something to be said for the trends of past winners here: 13 of the last 15 winners had finished 22nd or higher in a previous Masters. 7 of the last 10 had recorded a previous Top 5, and 22 of the last 25 had recorded a 40th or better in the year directly before their breakthrough. Max Homa meets none of those qualifications, but there's also something to be said for career progression, and nobody has grown his stature in the game of golf in the last 12 months quite like Max Homa. From a statistical standpoint, Max doesn't have a ton of flaws to speak of: rating inside the top 30 in each of the four Strokes Gained categories. He's one of the better long-iron players on the planet, and despite the struggles in Major Championships, Homa has recorded wins at venues like Torrey Pines, Riviera, and Quail Hollow - all of which have hosted the biggest tournaments in world golf. Homa is unquestionably one of the top six or seven players in the world, and there's no doubt that he'll be getting the Major Championship monkey off of his back sooner rather than later. I wouldn't argue with anyone who wants to start chasing it this week above 30-1.

Viktor Hovland (45-1): Much like Morikawa, Hovland's stock in this event drastically increases if the forecasted rainfall softens up Augusta National to the point where he can realistically hit 70-plus% of his Greens in Regulation. There's no doubt that Hovland will quickly fall back if scrambling remains a key factor, but the iron play has been so good of late that it would take a concerted effort from the grounds crew to mitigate the advantages he possesses. Notably, Hovland has putted very well at Augusta in his three starts, and he comes into this week behind only Scheffler and Morikawa in total ball-striking since the start of the year. I would not be surprised to see him rack up a ton of birdies this week. At the very least he's a sneaky DFS play.

Patrick Reed (80-1): Despite the buzz around Koepka, Cam Smith, and Dustin Johnson, it is actually Patrick Reed at 80-1 that captures my attention most on the LIV Roster. A past champion in 2018, Reed has recorded two additional top 10s in his four Masters appearances since his triumph. Like most LIV players, Patrick's results on his main tour have been pretty sporadic (although he did just come 4th in his last start at LIV Orlando), but it is two starts on the European Tour over the last six months that sell his profile the best. Reed came solo second to Rory McIlroy in January's Dubai Desert Classic, and tied-fifth at the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth - an event won by Shane Lowry and was contested by some of the biggest names in world golf (Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Viktor Hovland, etc). Reed has always thrived when stakes are the highest, and there's nobody better suited to wear the literal and figurative black hat this weekend. I can't shake the fact that he'll be a factor.

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