RADIO
It is the week of the Masters and we have ReignMaker NFTs to make business decisions on. We will take a look at who are golfers who are still affordably priced that will be playing at the Masters, as well as a few golfers who are not playing in the Masters who will be playing at the RBC Heritage, and there is a certain golfer who will see his price skyrocket in about a month's time when he is the only elite golfer in the Mexico Open.
We are going to look at some golfers who are also trending in the right direction, who may be ideal long term buys. This is the first time I am putting an article like this together as ReignMakers is still new to the PGA. Segments will be added and removed as the season goes on. If you are not familiar with ReignMakers, check out my "Introduction To ReignMakers Article" here, to get you up to speed with the basics.
If there is something ReignMaker related that you would like to see in this article, feel free to reach out to me with your ideas. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. Let's make it Reign!!
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ReignMaker Strategy
Model Criteria
- A long-term rating of the golfer's overall skillset
- A combination of their strokes gained total L50 + their trajectory (how their SG Total was trending over a long/medium/short time frame)
- PGA Priority List # as we want to know which events a golfer will be able to play in)
- FedEx Cup Points (The Final Event of the season is the Tour Championship, which will feature 30 of the top FEC points scorers. The more FEC points you have right now, the better your chances are of making it to the Tour Championship, increasing the value of a card by end of the season)
- We will add the power rankings from my Masters model into the above ReignMaker rankings to come up with a short-term salary to compare to the market, to get a good feel for who short term targets will be.
The salary we will see in the remainder of the article will be catered to the lowest priced RARE cards (usually #/600 edition tier) on the market because 1) It is easier to manually update these prices by hand when filtering on the cheapest golfers in the tier 2) You can buy more of these cards to enter into contests, as they can be half the price of some of the #/120 edition tier cards, 3) RARE cards prices fit my personal budget so my information I share here will be what I use to make my own personal decisions.
Supply and Demand
As it is the Masters, we will see an influx of 100 RARE cards into the market for most golfers. These will come in the form of people purchasing packs that DraftKings is dropping on Tuesday. This is the first mid-season drop we have seen as the first drop came prior to the RM season starting. People will buy these packs and land up selling cards from them on the open market if they don't want that particular card. In theory, an influx of cards will reduce the average market price of a card.
Another aspect that will affect this week's supply of cards is the fact that we only have 52 golfers available for purchase on the market, although there are 89 golfers teeing it up this week. LIV golfers and the elderly past champions are adding a variable this week that we won't see outside of the four majors, increasing the price of cards on the market.
The fact that this is the first major and there will naturally be a higher demand for cards this week as the Masters is typically one of the most popular events to bet on and play DFS, we will also see an increase in demand for the cards on the market, as this week will see more newcomers than any other normal week.
We now have multiple counteracting variables in play this week that were not present last week at the Valero. More cards, less golfers and more buyers. We need to guestimate which will have a larger impact on the market. I would assume that the fact that it is the Masters and only 52 golfers can be purchased, we will see a greater demand for cards that will increase prices more than the increased supply of cards will reduce the price of cards.
This is the nerdy economic side of things that thrills me about ReignMakers (my day job is as an accountant). If this is not your thing, just know that you will most likely want to buy early in the week and sell later in the week, as prices should increase leading up to Thursday morning before contests lock. I have included an image of the four basic supply/demand scenarios and how they impact the price of a product (NFT card), if you want to brush up on your economics.
Short Term Targets Playing This Week
These are some of the golfers we will want to target if you are looking to buy at a relatively low price and enter into your lineups for contests this week. The model is suggesting that the "Min Market Price" for RARE cards is lower than our calculated price for that golfer. Tony Finau appears to be grossly mispriced as one of the highest rated golfers for this week and has fantastic Masters history and has been one of the most consistent golfers on tour, hardly finishing outside the top-25.
Patrick Cantlay seems to be slightly underpriced and is particularly appealing as he has shown impressive form around Harbour Town which they will play at next week. He is an elite birdie maker and is one of the safer golfers to roster on tour. You also know that Cantlay will be playing good golf once the FedEx Cup Playoffs arrive. If he can get the major bugaboo off his back this week, he is a steal at this price.
My favorite medium-term prospect to try acquire as much of as possible, is Jon Rahm, as he has committed to play at the Mexico Open in a few weeks, which he will most likely be close to 3-1 to win with many of the world's best giving that week a skip. His price that week could go crazy, either providing you with an opportunity to sell high, or have several of his cards to roster at a ridiculously reduced investment. (If $200 is too spendy for your budget, I will be buying up some CORE Rahm cards myself to use as the one CORE card in RARE contests). Oh, Rahm is also very live to win this week.
Tom Hoge is much cheaper than the three aforementioned stars, who will most likely frequent the top of the leaderboard in some combination, but Hoge is one of the best approach players in the field and managed to make the cut around here last year. If he improves on his performance from last year, he may be a cheap value play that could see his price increase over the next few weeks as the market adjusts to his continued success.
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Byron by using the discount code MANIAC when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, models, projections and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.
End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Long Term Targets Playing This Week
Once again Tony Finau and Tom Hoge finds themselves as value purchases for the long term despite the limited field size driving up prices higher than they would be in a normal week. I am not sure how I feel about Scott Stallings or Gary Woodland as they have not been playing great lately.
Somebody I do find intriguing as a long-term play is Mackenzie Hughes. He has fallen off the face of the earth since winning the Sanderson Farms, but he plays well in majors and has a really impressive short game. That ball striking just needs to find its way back to above average and he will be frequenting leaderboards again.
J.T. Poston is probably not going to light it up around Augusta, but there are courses like Harbour Town that will treat Poston's recent resurgence with respect. He is sub $30 and has the potential to see that price soar if he carries on striking the ball the way we have seen him do so lately.
Taylor Moore is playing the masters for the first time, but his length and ball striking acumen should see him do better than most Masters rookies if he can figure out the short game side of things. Once we leave Augusta, Moore should continue playing great golf, hoping to add to his success of recently winning the Valspar. His market price is slowly catching up to his value.
Keegan Bradley is barely showing as an edge. He intrigues me as he is one of the better ball strikers on tour who has struggled at majors in the past. However, he has since adopted aimpoint express and has seen the putter spike a lot more which is more than enough for us to take a chance on him at sub $40.
Targets Not Playing Augusta
These are golfers who did not make it to the Masters, yet will see their fair share of elevated events. Their market prices are all popping as underpriced in comparison to what the Model has them set at.
Tyler Duncan can be a sneaky play at Harbour Town and has been playing some solid golf lately and is almost less than $10 to get into your roster pool. Maverick Mcnealy just changed his swing coach and is one of the best putters on tour. If he lands up being a competent ball striker, things could explode for the short game wizzard.
Brendon Todd is another candidate to keep in mind heading to Harbour Town, as his game translates well to shorter courses. If he can avoid making the cut inside the top 10 and finishing the week outside the top 40, he could be a golfer to get on board with. Garrick Higgo is another long term target who has shown signs that his game has returned. He is a little inconsistent, but his $14 price tag is very appealing for somebody with his explosiveness.
How to get your hands on the model?
If you are looking to get your hands on my ReignMaker Model, it will be made available in the RotoBaller PGA discord for our premium members to utilize as they see fit. Use code: MANIAC for 10% off our weekly or annual premium packages that will get you access to this model, my showdown model, premium articles, DFS optimizers, research tools, and our discord where @TeeOffSports and I hang out throughout the week.
Useful Resources
I have had two revered guests on my Podcast where we strictly talk about ReignMakers that go into the basics and nuances of their process and approach each week.
I really hope you enjoyed this article and found it useful to kick start your ReignMaker journey or to polish up on some things you may not have been sure about.
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