RADIO
Brandon Wampler's top DraftKings and FanDuel NHL DFS value plays and research for January 3rd, 2023 including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays and stacks.
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Brandon and I write both The First-Serve and The Kick-Off for Tennis and Soccer respectively. If you have not checked those out, make sure you do! It is the return of the NHL season which means it's time to sharpen our MLB skills and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the best tools to succeed and the info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel Tuesday, 3rd, 2023 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 1/3/23
Happy New Year from myself and the Rotoballer Crew! Hopefully, everyone had a wonderful start to 2023, that is if you are not a Pittsburgh fan – the steelers are out of playoffs and the Penguins are on a 5-game losing streak –. All joking aside, I do want to ask everyone to please take a moment of silence today for Damar Hamlin, a safety for the Buffalo Bills. For those that did not watch last night, the player made a good tackle, got up, took a few steps and immediately collapsed. He went into cardiac arrest on the field and has been resuscitated since and remains in critical condition. Life is too short for all of us to get mad over useless things or get upset because our favorite player didn’t perform that night. Life is a precious thing and Hamlin is now fighting for it after playing the game he loves. If anyone would like to support the player and his good deeds, he has a Toy Drive that he runs in Pittsburgh and you can find it on Google. Otherwise, we are back at it tonight with a large 11-game slate with zero teams playing on a back-to-back. The currently live top-3 highest implied team totals are: Tampa Bay with 4.4, Florida with 4.4 and Ottawa with 4 goals. I will do my best in guiding you through this eleven-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 7:00 p.m. EST.
DISCLOSURE: Make sure to monitor the news feed and play at your own risk
Goalies
Connor Hellebuyck- DK $7.5K || FD $8.8K
Opponent - Calgary Flames
Luckily, Winnipeg has been faltering lately, causing Hellebuyck’s salary to take a slight fall. This works perfectly for us, as he is facing the Flames who take the third-most Shots For Per 60 – 34.29 –, but sit in the middle of the pack in Goals For Per 60 – 2.65 –. Not only should Hellebuyck have a solid floor from saves tonight, but he may also eclipse the save bonus on DraftKings as well – 35 –. This could make Hellebuyck the best-valued netminder on the slate at a discount in ownership. Over his last five appearances, he has won 3 games and posted double-digit fantasy points in 4 games.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Vasilevskiy (DK $8.5K || FD $8.5K), Murray (DK $8.4K || FD $8.6K)
Centers
Tim Stuetzle-DK $6.2K || FD $7.4K
Opponent - Ottawa Senators
I believe we are finally witnessing the breakout of Tim Stuetzle. The second-year center is currently on a 5-game point streak where he has amassed 3 goals, 2 assists, 17 shots and 6 blocked shots. He does it all and it helps to be playing between linemates Brady Tkachuk and Claude Giroux. During his 5-game point streak, he has played the likes of, Buffalo, Detroit, Boston and Washington twice. That is an impressive run of form when considering opponents. Now he gets one of the worst defenses in the league, the Columbus Blue Jackets – 2nd in Shot Against Per 60, 6th in Scoring Chances Against Per 60 and 1st in Goals Against Per 60 all over the season –. With bigger names on the slate, Stuetzle may even come in at less ownership than expected, making a Senators stack well worth the play.
John Tavares- DK $6.5K || FD $7.5K
Opponent - St Louis Blues
Tavares is back in the article once again and this time due to the rather insane mismatch of a matchup he is in. Both center Ryan O’Reilly and winger Vladimir Tarasenko are out for the Blues, causing a full lineup shakeup. This will slide Brayden Schenn into the second-line center role. Schenn has not consistently played center in a good bit of time and to be quite frank, he is not a good center and loses faceoffs on the regular. This will only play into Tavares’s biggest strengths. Teammate Austin Matthews will be calling a lot of eyes, but Tavares is getting the better matchup. In his last five games, he has 1 goal, 3 assists and 13 shots. Also keep in mind that the Blues rank in the bottom ten of the league in Goals Against Per 60 on the season – 2.77 – and Binnington is the 26th worst goalie in Goals Saved Above Expected Per 60 – -0.1 – out of 73 goalies who have played a minimum of 5 games this season.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Stamkos (DK $7.8K || FD $9.3K), Schenn (DK $3.9K || FD $5.4K)
Wings
Mitch Marner- DK $6.3K || FD $7.5K
Opponent - St Louis Blues
Marner’s production has ‘declined’ since his massive point-streak, however, he has still scored 2 goals, assisted 3 goals and taken 14 shots over his last five games. That is still excellent production and I am quite confused as to why his salary has decreased, especially given such a premium matchup. Aforementioned, the Blues are still struggling to keep pucks out of their net and their netminder Jordan Binnington is not helping. This is one of the better spots at wing tonight and Marner shouldn’t have a problem exceeding value.
Alex Killorn- DK $3.8K || FD $5.6K
Opponent - Chicago Blackhawks
Killorn could play out to be one of the top value plays on the slate. Not only is he playing against a bad overall team in the Chicago Blackhawks, but he is also playing on a line with Anthony Cirelli and Steven Stamkos. Chicago is most certainly trending in the right direction in the most meaningful of statistics, however, they still cannot keep pucks out of their net, placing dead last in Goals Against Per 60 in the last 10 games – 3.6 –. Stamkos generally plays more as a provider, than a shooter when he is a center and Cirelli is undoubtedly a provider at best. This sets up Killorn to see a bulk of the shooting attempts on the second-line.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): M. Tkachuk (DK $7.6K || FD $9.3K), Giroux (DK $5.4K || FD $7.2K)
Defense
Erik Gustafsson- DK $4.6K || FD $4.3K
Opponent - Buffalo Sabres
There is zero rhyme or reason as to why Gustafsson’s salary is still where it is. He is currently becoming untouchable as the defenseman carries the defense for the Capitals in the wake of teammate John Carlson’s injury. Over Gustafsson’s last five games, he has 2 goals, 6 assists, 9 shots and 4 blocked shots. Buffalo is not a walk in the park, however, this meeting should be fast-paced, providing Gustafsson plenty of opportunities to exceed value.
Morgan Rielly- DK $4.5K || FD $6.3K
Opponent - St Louis Blues
Rielly once again makes the article. The defenseman has been a highlight in each game since his return – 2 games – and in that time, he has 1 assist, 6 shots and 5 blocked shots. It remains to be seen if Rielly can continue this type of production long-term, however, it is a positive sign for us while his salary remains on the ‘cheaper’ end of the spectrum. The Blues and their horrid defense have been mentioned more than twice today – look to John Tavares and Mitch Marner highlights – and Rielly should get more than a few looks on net, in an attempt to score his first goal of the season. Furthermore, despite Vladimir Tarasenko being out for St Louis, the Blues still hold enough firepower, to help Rielly get to the shot block bonus on DraftKings – 3 –.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Samuelsson (DK $3.3K || FD $3.9K), Johnson (DK $2.8K || FD $3.7K)
NHL DFS Top Power Plays and Stacks
- TB1
- TOR1
- FLA1
- OTT1
- WAS1
Brandon's Stack of the Day
- TOR: Rielly-Tavares-Marner
Chalk Stack
- TB: Stamkos-Point-Kucherov
Sneaky Stack
- SEA: Schwartz-Dunn-McCann
