RADIO
Happy Monday, RotoBallers! Today is the final day of the first week of the season! I hope you have been enjoying this column as much as I enjoy writing it and that you are embracing the return of the NBA into our daily lives.
We have eight games on the NBA schedule tonight and there are a few spots I want to highlight for you for wagers this evening. So far, I have had some modest success and I will always update my yearly record, win or lose, for total transparency. Know that if you tail me on bets, I am wagering my own money with you and sweating out every possession too!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets
- 2022-2023 Overall Record: 8-6
- Against the Spread: 3-4
- Game/Team Totals: 2-1
- Moneyline Parlay: 1-1
- Teasers: 2-0
NBA Betting Picks: Against the Spread
Boston Celtics (-4.5) @ Chicago Bulls (223.5 total)
The Celtics have looked incredibly strong out of the gates this year and they're off to a 3-0 start as they attempt to defend their Eastern Conference title. There has been some solid play from their entire lineup and bench too, with guys like Derrick White and Grant Williams coming up big for them when they need them. And Jayson Tatum continues to impress as he looks like he's going to be one of the league's best players for years to come as he continues to improve his game in multiple ways.
Anyways, let's cut to the chase here - I am buying Boston to keep it rolling here. They are 2-1 against the spread this year and this number is simply too small for how much better they've been than the Bulls. Chicago got Zach LaVine back on Saturday and then went out and promptly got blown out by Cleveland.
This Bulls team has really looked lackluster to start the year and they simply aren't playing any defense. DeMar DeRozan has been great, but he can't put this team on his back every night, and if they can't solve their defensive issues, they look like a fringe playoff team to me. The Celtics are efficient on offense, solid on defense, and get the loose balls and 50-50 situations that winning teams find a way to win.
I'm backing Boston here to cover and I wouldn't be surprised if they rolled up on this Bulls team.
The Pick: Boston -4.5 (-110)
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NBA Betting Picks: Totals
San Antonio Spurs (-9.5) @ Minnesota Timberwolves (230.5 total)
Well, I like to get out in front of trends as early as I can and while last season we saw scoring down across the league early, this year has been very much the opposite as scoring is up through the first week of NBA action. The Spurs are a surprising 2-1 to start the year and shocked the Sixers yesterday in a huge upset, while Minnesota is 2-1 with both wins coming against Oklahoma City.
We have a number of things that point to an over here. First, I have to look at the projected pace of play which I have at over 105 possessions right now based on how fast both teams have played in their three games. The league average has only been around 101 so far (which is up from around 99 last season) as so this game stands out as a super-charged game environment for scoring, even among other fast-paced games tonight.
And then we have to look at the defensive ratings, while Minnesota has been better this year (108), the Spurs have a 117-point defensive rating right now. Yes, they slowed down the Sixers yesterday, but they allowed huge games to both Indiana and Charlotte in their two prior contests. Minnesota's offense is elite and they should be able to score at will here.
Finally, both teams are playing the second half of a back-to-back. That is a trend that usually points to an over (but not always) as we see these players play less defense when they are more tired. I've heard people say it works both ways as shooters with tired legs will be less efficient too, and there could be some truth to that, but the numbers tend to favor an overall trend of more points allowed by teams on B2B. It's early in the year so these guys shouldn't be that tired yet, but it's still something to consider. This game could go for like 240-250 points tonight, I am all about this over.
The Pick: OVER 230.5 (-110)
Utah Jazz (+1) @ Houston Rockets (232 total)
This total is already high, I know, but is it high enough? Utah continues to surprise everyone as they won again last night and are now 3-0 on the season. They're not only winning but scoring a boatload of points! They've gone over their totals by an average of 14 points per game! That's a silly number and it's part of the reason why this total is already pumped up quite a bit.
Houston has gone over their totals in two of three games already too, and cleared them by an average of 3.7 points. That gives this game the largest +/- rating on the slate and is one reason why I think we could get another shootout tonight.
The pace numbers certainly back the over here too. While it doesn't check in quite as high as the Spurs-Wolves game, I have this one pegged for 103.5 possessions which could still be enough if we see these teams continue to score as efficiently as they have. I think Utah certainly will, they have looked fantastic so far and face this Houston team with a terrible 120-point defensive rating. Houston has some very talented young scorers who are capable of keeping up, though, which is why I have high hopes for the over here. I like Utah to win, but I am going to just roll with the over here instead.
The Pick: OVER 232.5 (-110)
I usually do a money line favorite parlay on bigger slates and then one teaser bet as well (usually a lot of underdogs, but not always).
Just know the risks involved with parlaying bets, we are increasing our potential payouts but adding more risk to every bet with every outcome that we include.
Favorite Moneyline Parlay: NY Knicks + Boston = (+104 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Underdog 4.5 point Teaser: Toronto +8, Utah +5.5, Portland +8 = (+150 DraftKings Sportsbook)
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