RADIO
We're this close to the regular season, and while there is a ton of hype about the incoming rookies (check out all of our NBA Draft analysis here), we still need to reflect on the 2021-2022 season and what happened just a few months back in time. We're having the first proper NBA offseason in a couple of years as COVID fades away, and it's now time to do some evaluation on another unique season as we prepare for the 2023 campaign.
We have nearly a full season of data for most players to crunch now. It's time to reflect on the 2021-22 season to see who were our "risers" and "fallers" in the rankings. A lot of young players are naturally going to be on the rise, while some older hoopers will definitely be part of the season fallers.
In this article, I will feature some of the players labeled as Guards (PG/SG) who took the biggest drops in their output so you can properly assess their value entering the 2022 draft season as we get closer to peak draft SZN.
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Fantasy Basketball Fallers - Guards
Coby White, PG - Chicago Bulls
2021 - 55th-Best Overall
2022 - 165th
Let me give you some background, just in case. Lonzo Ball is about to miss time to start this season after he's not recovering from his meniscus surgery at the pace the Bulls expected. He's been out since Jan. 15, and what should have been a four-to-six-week recovery is looking more like a near-year-long one. That will undoubtedly put Coby White in Chicago's spotlight at the point-guard slot.
White is still developing although he's already entering his fourth season of NBA basketball. He's appeared in 195 games, starting 72 of those (37%) although he racked up 54 starts in 2021 alone. Of course, that is the only reason why he finished as the top-55 fantasy player overall back then and only the 165th last season. Or is it?
The playing time was notably higher for White in 2021 than in 2020 and 2022 -- he spent almost 500 more minutes on the court. His per-game numbers and (most worryingly) his efficiency while on the court absolutely tanked last year, though, so the playing time is not the lone reason he didn't keep improving in 2022. White went from averaging a 15-4-5 line in 2021 to a measly 12-3-3 last year on a per-game basis.
On a per-minute level, he fell below league-average levels by generating only 0.83 FP/min compared to the league's 0.90 FP/min average. All things considered, White is entering a make-or-break season with the Bulls and he should better take advantage of Lonzo Ball's absence if he wants to stick with the Bulls -- and the league as a whole.
While White's true shooting percentage went up three percentage points from his rookie to sophomore season, and once more last season (he posted a 56.4 TS% in 2022), all of his other rates dropped (rebounds, steals, blocks, and mostly assists at 15% compared to 21.8% in 2021).
De'Aaron Fox, PG - Sacramento Kings
2021 - 19th-Best Overall
2022 - 53rd
The fifth-overall pick in the 2017 draft, Fox re-inked his deal with the Kings a year ago when Sacramento offered him a monster five-year, $163 million deal last summer to keep him in tow at least until the summer of 2026. That, Math 101 taught me, amounts to more than $32M per year. That also is about to be the 39th-largest salary in the NBA next year and the 35th-largest next year. Are we sure Fox is worth that dough, though?
Fox was definitely not the most glaring of underperformers last year, but the decline compared to his 2021 season was noticeable at the very least. Going from a top-20 finish to outside the top-50, or from a top-10 at the guard position to nearly outside the top-25 players is definitely concerning for fantasy GMs planning their rosters and looking for top-dollar players to build their squads around. Fox, as depressing as it sounds, might not be one of those anymore.
The Kings' point guard went from a career season (43.8 DKFP per game) to only 38.9 FPPG and his per-minute efficiency went down a notch too, going from 1.25 FP/min (elite) in 2021 to 1.10 (good-not-entirely-great) last year. Of course, his stat line went down where it hurt the most for a PG: assists. Fox only averaged 5.6 APG compared to 7.2 two years ago, and only when he was a rookie had he posted a lower (4.4) mark.
Fox's undoing was also his horrid, seemingly-forced three-point shooting. Fox hoisted 18.5 FGA per game over the year with 4.2 3PA a pop. Only, you know the results: a nightmarish 29.7% on shots from beyond the arc only fixed by his high free-throw percentage (75%) making up for that. Fox was able to keep his turnovers at bay (back-to-back years at 11.9 TOV%) but he stole fewer possessions and his rebounding barely improved.
We have yet to watch a full season of the new Fox-Sabonis pairing but the additions of Kevin Huerter and Keegan Murray could take a bunch of touches from Fox leaving him in the cold once more next season.
Kevin Huerter, SG - Sacramento Kings
2021 - 87th-Best Overall
2022 - 114th
Huerter's case is very special if you look at it from a broader angle. I had Huerter as a loser when the first pieces from the free agency domino started to fall and after Atlanta traded for Dejounte Murray but when it was reported that the Hawks had moved Huerter to Sacramento, he became an instant winner to my eyes.
That was great to hear, but you have to keep in mind that Malik Monk got signed by Sacramento, and while he will most probably start the season as a backup if Huerter starts to flop a bit, the two might get flipped in the rotation.
Huerter has averaged 0.83, 0.80, and 0.78 FP/min in the past three seasons and has a career average of just 0.79 through four years of NBA basketball. That is, simply put, subpar performance on an efficiency/per-minute basis. Tyrese Haliburton, the player he will replace in the Kings lineup, played 30 and 35 MPG in his two seasons there.
Huerter comes off playing around 30 MPG in three consecutive years in Atlanta so there won't be much change there. In other words, Huerter will need to level up his game a lot if he wants to be a substantial fantasy asset going forward.
The only thing that might save Huerter is his shooting, which actually improved last year. That might sound like a contradiction to finding Huerter in this list of fallers, but the truth is that Huerter is starting to turn more into a specialist for particular and very determined uses than a bonafide must-have fantasy player.
Huerter kept up his scoring (12 PPG in three consecutive years) but at the expense of losing ground on the AST% and STL% rates while also raising his turnover rate a full percentage point last year compared to his 2021 mark.
Of course, Huerter will still be a noted marksman in Sacramento surrounded by Fox, Sabonis, Harrison Barnes, etc... generating open looks for him to take advantage of. Huerter is coming off a career season in terms of his true shooting (57%) and hit a nice 45.4/38.9/80.8 splits in his last season in Atlanta. That should change for the bad, but that's pretty much all Huerter can and will offer you.
Jordan Clarkson, SG - Utah Jazz
2021 - 54th-Best Overall
2022 - 71st
Building off a Sixth Man of the Year season is always tough. It makes sense for that to be the case, though, as those to win that award don't jump into a starting position the following year, thus having to put match their levels on a similar off-the-pine role on back-to-back years. That was the most probable outcome for Clarkson last year, and it was the one that ultimately happened.
That doesn't mean J-Clark wasn't still fantastic, mind you, although the decrease in overall performance was definitely there. That's why Clarkson went from nearly being a top-50 asset to an outside-the-top-75 player. For someone who has started just 25 games in the past six seasons combined, though, finishing inside the top-100 in all of those years is remarkable. Only, Clarkson's ceiling is closer to that top-75 than the 2021 top-50 near-finish.
Clarkson is (for now) part of a Jazz team that has nothing to win and will want to lose as much as possible. We'll see where Clarkson starts the year, but his 15+ PPG off the pine are probably of best use elsewhere. Clarkson, who is entering his age-30 season, lost a bit of touch on the shooting front (his calling card), falling to a 53.1 true shooting percentage on 41.9/31.8/82.8 shooting splits.
That's the worst he's shot from the floor (FG%) in his career, his second-worst 3P% mark since his rookie year in 2015, and his worst FT% since he only hit 80% of his freebies back in 2018. Remove Clarkson's shooting from his profile, and he becomes an instant fantasy afterthought as his main task on a basketball court is microwave-scoring. The 3 RPG, 2 APG, and (nearly) 1 SPG are good, but definitely not something that should make you lose your mind (and a draft pick) rushing to pick him.
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