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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC 277: Peña vs. Nunes 2 on 07/30/22. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
We're back at our beloved numbered UFC events, and this is definitely one of a kind if anything. This card--most of all, the two title fights--is unique in that it is a love-me-hate-me proposition like no other. Two revenge fights highlight this weekend's lineup, and both include belts on the line (one "official", the other one "interim", though) so it's not that we can complain that much. Of course, one of those bouts is pitting two women against each other with very fresh memories of what happened the last time they met, and the other one is a long-time beef expected to be settled--or tied--in Dallas, TX come Saturday.
I'm talking about the seemingly-unbeatable-until-she-was-beaten Amanda Nunes trying to regain the gold that was once hers from Julianna Peña's paws. And I'm also talking about Brandon Moreno facing long-time foe Kai Kara-France in a fight for the IC FW after they already met all the way back in UFC 245 more than two years ago. If only the card stopped there... We'll have marvels all around the stadium with Derrick Lewis, Sergei Pavlovich, Anthony Smith, Magomed Ankalaev, and even the Battle of the Alexes (Pantoja and Perez) taking place! Can't wait!
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC 277: Peña vs. Nunes 2 on 07/30/22. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Women's Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Amanda Nunes, $9200 - vs. Julianna Peña (C)
The champ had it all to extend her reign for at least another round... until she didn't and Peña snatched the belt from Nunes' belly. Nunes dominated the challenger Peña for a full round and had ample chances of getting an early W, but Peña countered in the second period and that was it. It had been eight consecutive and successful title defenses of the WBW title, but it's now Peña holding that right and fighting Nunes in a rematch to see who truly deserves to be called champ (spoiler: expect a third and settling fight sometime in the future, probably even if Nunes losses once more).
Peña got her shot at the title after defeating Nicco Montano and Sara McMann in the UFC. That's it, at least from Aug. 2016 to Dec. 2021 and while fighting in the UFC. Seriously. Call it a long shot, but here she is now with the golden stripe wrapped around her. Nunes, well, not a lot to tell you about her. She last lost a fight in mid-2014 before going on a ridiculous 12-fight winning streak prior to that Peña upset last Christmas. Both of these two come with early-finish prowess and have proved capable to do so for most of their careers, barely reaching the distance in any of their fights. Peña's resume is very shaky, though, and Nunes had it in her hand but somehow let the W slip through the cracks last December. Not a chance that happens again this Saturday, in my honest opinion--and it might turn into a first-round, quickly-settled affair.
DraftKings MMA Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Brandon Moreno (C), $8900 - vs. Kai Kara-France
Second title fight on the card, second title fight pitting two fighters for the second time in their UFC careers. Moreno and Kara-France already fought each other a few years back when they entered the Octagon the same day back in Dec. 2019. Things diverged wildly for these two since they met in UFC 245, though. Moreno, the winner of that fight, went on to build on that momentum getting into a three-fight winning streak leading to his first title fight against Deiveson Figueiredo, one that lasted more than a year and included three bouts, the last of which he lost.
Kai, on the other hand, is getting into a belt-on-the-line fight (albeit for an IC stripe, though) for the first time in his career. He lost to Moreno, then alternated a win and a loss, and is now on a three-fight winning streak having faced good-not-great opponents (definitely not on par with Moreno's ultimate foe Figueiredo). Kara-France was clearly defeated by Moreno in their first meeting, but it's not that Moreno really excelled or dominated the three-round, 15-minute bout. There is a chance Kai gets the IC title by defeating Moreno this Saturday. Moreno is a more rounded fighter with grappling and takedown chops edging Kai on those departments, but both have the ability to stop opponents early via KO or submission so we'll see if this one reaches the final buzzer.
I'd go with Moreno because of his recent top-flight set of fights (in which he wasn't remotely bad) though I acknowledge a change of pace (read: opponent) for the first time in more than 20 months might catch Moreno off guard.
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Sergei Pavlovich, $8200 - vs. Derrick Lewis
It is possible that Derrick Lewis doesn't get appreciated enough. Lewis has fought five straight opponents ranked inside the 80th percentile going 3-2 and four (his most recent ones) since 2021 kicked off inside the 91ts percentile or higher. That's bonkers, and he's gone 2-2 in those four outings. Lewis, of course, had a couple of shots at the title but fumbled both of them against Daniel Cormier in 2018 and Ciryl Gane as recently as last August. He's now trying to rebuild his case, and defeating KO-monster Pavlovich might not be the worst thing to start doing it.
That's because Sergei Pavlovich is the strongest opponent in Derrick Lewis' resume, full stop. Sergei is a 99th-percentile DKFP scorer. He's fought three times in the UFC and all of those fights ended the same way: first-round KO victory for Pavlovich. He stayed off the Octagon from Oct. 2019 to Mar. 2022 and he came back the same as we ever knew it. As simple as that. Lewis has done a lot of damage and applied knockout pain to so many foes out there, but Pavlovich has been so good that it's hard to believe it. Even with the little-but-present takedown points that Lewis might get you here and there, Pavlovich is the clear go-to guy here. Call it a chalky play, but I just see no way this man ends fighting for the title sooner than later and, why not, lifting it all the way to the ceiling himself and wrapping it around his body.
DraftKings MMA Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Alexandre Pantoja, $8700 - vs. Alex Perez
The Battle of the Alexes hasn't much ring to it, but it certainly looks like a firework-worthy one on paper, at least. Perez is the fighter with the longest list of plaudits. It took Deiveson Figueiredo to stop him on his track after Perez put up a six-fight winning streak prior to fighting Deiveson for the title in Perez's most recent fight. Sadly, he got submitted in under two minutes of fighting time. Prior to that, though, the 6-0 resume was looking just insanely great. That said, he had never faced an opponent ranked above the 61st percentile in DKFP scoring terms, so you be the judge...
Pantoja, while a shakier performer, is also a bona fide star in the promo and he's been so for a long time now. Pantoja has only fought two times from 2020 on and is only 1-1 in that span, but he's coming off a submission win against the best fighter he's faced after losing one to Figueiredo back in July 2019. Perez has not fought at all since that L against Figueiredo back in Nov. 2020, so it's not that any of these two comes with much fresher than the other one, in all honesty.
Perez has sustained a higher floor for fantasy GMs throughout his career, though it's also true that he based it all on piling Ws and getting early-finish extra points. Pantoja has more up-and-downs in his resume, but even in defeat got to a near-40 DKFP floor a couple of times. We play for the W and not the L, of course, but I'd say Pantoja comes with the better all-around package and might start to paint a truer picture of Perez (now facing legit competitors once and for all) by handing him his second loss in a row.
DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Magomed Ankalaev, $9400 - vs. Anthony Smith
Smith's run prior to facing Jon Jones for the HW title was rather impressive. He won five fights early scoring himself four KOs and one submission and only losing once (to Thiago Santos) in his run toward that title fight. Of course, he dropped that one (Mar. 2019) and he never was the same until a very recent streak of Ws has put him back in the picture. Smith has defeated three straight foes with two submissions and a TKO, all of them inside the first round and with gusto.
Ankalaev, of course, is just an unstoppable force of nature that, just in case you had any doubt about him and his cardio, proceeded to murder opponents with KOs earlier in his career and is now going the full distance and into the judges' decision just because he can. Ankalaev has put together eight consecutive victories, from Sep. 2018 up to last March against Thiago Santos, and is a career 93rd-percentile fighter with an average of 82.1 FP per fight. Ankalaev has very impressive SS% landing more than half of his SSA virtually every time he steps into the Octagon. He is not adept at chasing foes to take them down, but he has proved capable of doing it (5-of-15 in TD through his last three bouts). Smith comes with the nice rebounding storyline attached to him, but Ankalaev looks poised to rip the heart out of Smith's chest on his way to the title.
