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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC Vegas 54: Blachowicz Vs Rakic on 05/14/22. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
Alright, that was a weird one, wasn't it? UFC 274 arrived offering two title fights and ended with what? One? Half of one? Yikes. Oliveira surrendered the belt after weighing in at 155.5 instead of 155 so his first-round victory went for nothing. Before that Carla Esparza defeated Rosa Namajunas and snatched the W Strawweight belt in the worst and most boring fight ever. This sounds ludicrous, but it could be very true: we're more excited about UFC Vegas 54 now than we were about whatever was that happened last Saturday. Jesus.
This is the classic second-tier event with second-tier fights, not gonna lie. Barring the main event, the card is a little underwhelming compared with the last one--even though last weekend surely flopped entirely. Blachowicz against Rakic is a solid headliner, though, with the former surrendering the belt just last October and trying to build his way back toward a second shot at it. Rakic will try to take advantage of the former champ to keep padding his resume. The likes of Ryan Spann, Ion Cutelaba, Katlyn Chookagian, and Amanda Ribas will make it to the Octagon earlier, and honestly, things can't go just worst than they did in Phoenix last weekend. Let's break some fights down before it's too late!
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC Vegas 54: Blachowicz Vs Rakic on 05/14/22. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Jan Blachowicz, $7500 - vs. Aleksandar Rakic
Snatching the belt from Dominick Reyes, successfully defending it against a bulked-up Israel Adesanya, and losing it to Glover Teixeira. That's what Blachowicz has been up to in the past two years of UFC events since he finally became a champ in Sep. 2020. That loss to Teixeira came absolutely out of left field because yes, the veteran was on an absolute tear, but he also was 42 freaking years old and seemed to be out of contention. Alas. Blachowicz had not lost a fight since Feb. 2019 to Thiago Santos, so it surely hurt the Polish.
Rakic, on the other hand, is yet looking for his own shot at lifting the gold. He's slowly but surely getting there, as he's won his last two fights (both in the past two years), but although he's a UFC-career 6-1 fighter he is far from a good fantasy option. Rakic often goes the distance (he's done so in five of his seven fights; the other two he won via first-round KO) and in those 15-minute contests, he topped at 9.8 SSA per minute with an actual average of just 4.1 SSL per minute. That sucks. Blachowicz is not far ahead, but he at least comes with a rather higher floor when the early-finish bonus points are not baked into his DKFP scores, and you also gotta bet on Blachowicz's solid knockout prowess of late. I'd err on the safety of a bounceback from the former champ.
DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Ion Cutelaba, $8900 vs. Ryan Spann
Do-or-die fight for Cutelaba, this one. Ion Cutelaba won his last bout last September against Devin Clark, yes, but that was his first W in four fights and the first one since two years before. He came off two KO-defeats and a draw against Dustin Jacoby exactly a year ago. Cutelaba, though never a very strong grappler or just active seeker of that type of fight, entirely changed his approach to fighting in his last two fights attempting 19 and 12 TDs and landing 9 and 8 respectively (55% success). That's unheard of earlier in his UFC career, as he only had one other fight in which he attempted more than two TDs (4-of-5 against Khalil Rountree in Sep. 2019).
Spann will make things difficult for Cute to pull off his second consecutive victory, though it must be said that Spann isn't quite a marvelous fighter himself. He's KO'd one fighter in the past two years but he's also gotten submitted in his most recent fight against Anthony Smith last September. He's an even 2-2 in the past 24 months and the striking has been mediocre at 2.7 SSL per minute barring his outlier 13.5 in the KO victory against Misha Cirkunov. Spann has attempted to land some takedowns here and there, but that doesn't feel like a huge part of his game. This new Cutelaba has me very interested and I'd bet on him keeping things going against Spann.
DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Davey Grant, $9100 - vs. Louis Smolka
Smolka's fight log definitely shows way more red than green these days. After a ridiculous start to his career (5-1 from Jan. 2014 to Jul. 2016), all Smolka has done is basically lose fights. Yes, he got a couple of Ws by the way of KO and submission, but none of those happened after hitting 2020 and he's 2-7 since his first six fights, and 0-2 in fights from 2020 on. More worrying is the fact that Smolka hasn't gone past the first round in four consecutive fights, getting KO'd in his most recent one (2:02 minutes) and submitted two times prior to that.
Davey Grant has not been much better than Smolka, mind you, though he at least has gotten past the second buzzer in four of his last five fights while building a 3-2 record (from Nov. 2019 on). He's lost his last two bouts via decision, though, after having two KO victories and a decision prior to that in that run. He was prone to get submitted early in his career as it happened to him twice in his first three fights. That said, his striking volume is quite sublime with Grant attempting 11+ SSA per minute in four straight fights (always 110+ total SSA in those four) while landing 5.5+ SS per minute. Smolka comes with a very clear boom/bust profile and he's been on the wrong end of things lately, so it's much safer and smarter betting on Grant piling on strikes and racking up DKFP this weekend--and don't rule out him KO'ing his foe Smolka if he gets the tiniest of chances.
DraftKings MMA Women's Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Amanda Ribas, $7600 - vs. Katlyn Chookagian
It's more than probable that Chookagian never gets another chance at lifting the belt. Judging by what she's done in her UFC career, and more than anything in the last couple of years, she feels just short of the elite performers in her division. That's because she dropped her chance at the title against Valentina Shevchenko (third-round KO) and then lost once more to Jessica Andrade (first-round KO). Yes, she's won out all other fights she's been involved in the past three years (6-2) but she just doesn't have that last needed push to make it all the way there.
Ribas, on the other hand, might very well be on her way to getting that golden stripe. She's only done it in the UFC five times, but oh lord has she looked absolutely great. Ribas is 5-0 and has defeated a couple of opponents via first- or second-round submission already. She's landed at least one takedown in each of her five fights while attempting an average of 3+ per fight. And on the striking front, she's going for nearly 10 SSA per minute while landing 4.5 of them. Ribas might hit a wall at some point--even mighty Valentina Shevchenko did--but she can't look better these days. Chookagian feels like a test to prove whether Ribas belongs to the first or the second tier of fighters, so whatever the outcome is for her it might define her future. Give me Ribas all freaking day, though.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight- UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Manuel Torres, $8300 - vs. Frank Camacho
Sometimes fighting nicknames don't mean a thing. Sometimes they do. Enter Manuel "El Loco" Torrens, who is part of the former group of aptly nicknamed brawlers. The Mexican Torres is making his official UFC debut this Saturday after completing a 14-fight pro MMA career prior to that. The thing about El Loco is that he just doesn't know how to go the distance. He has a 12-2 record as a pro and only one of those 12 victories came via decision. The other 11 he split into five KOs and six submissions. Uh, oh, the steady threat.
Torres' two losses to date both came via submission. Good for him, Camacho is not your preternatural grappling boy. Yes, he's proved capable of pulling off the takedowns if needed, but that happened earlier in his career (he has not landed a takedown for more than four years) and his only early victory came via KO in June of 2019. Camacho has lost two in a row lasting two minutes at most (one KO, one sub) and he's looked rather bad for the past four years. When able to complete at least a couple of rounds of fighting he's shown massive striking volume (200+ SSA) but he just doesn't feel like he'll be making it there on Saturday. Gotta fade the hell out of Frankie and bet on the newcomer Loco Torres.
