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Dave analyzes 7 fantasy football running back sleepers and bust candidates for the 2025 season based on missed tackles forced per attempt and advanced metrics. Joe Mixon, Kenneth Walker III, Alvin Kamara, more.
With the steady increase of committees over the years, running back has become one of the most frustrating positions for fantasy football managers. However, running back remains one of the most important positions in fantasy football. Managers must always pay sharp attention to the position, and identifying potential sleepers and busts can be the difference between missing the playoffs and winning a championship.
One way to gain an edge at running back is to analyze where certain backs finish in the statistic of Missed Tackles Forced Per Attempt (MTF/ATT). This stat shows us which backs are capable of producing explosive plays that can lead to spike weeks. Running backs who finish high in this metric are ones to target, and those who grade poorly are potential landmines to avoid. So, which backs this year should managers target and which ones should they avoid based on MTF/ATT? Let's take a few minutes and discuss.
Make sure you’re following RotoBaller on X and checking out RotoBaller.com for all your fantasy football needs. Here are several running back sleepers and busts based on MTF/ATT. *All MTF/ATT data is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data Suite*
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Fantasy Football Running Back Sleepers
Kenneth Walker III - Seattle Seahawks
The 2024 campaign was not Walker's best season. He missed multiple games due to various injuries and posted career lows in rushing yards and yards per carry. However, among 46 backs with 100+ carries, Walker would finish first in MTF/ATT.
All aboard the K9 train 🚂 pic.twitter.com/dCv6sT9IWr
— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) September 8, 2024
The fact that Walker still eluded defenders even when dealing with multiple injuries is a very good sign for his outlook. This player is highly talented. Some of his efficiency metrics have not been great, but this can partially be attributed to Seattle’s poor offensive line play over the years. A bad offensive line can skew running back efficiency metrics, and a good line can help.
Look no further than Saquon Barkley this past season for proof of that statement.
Seattle has taken steps to improve the offensive line this offseason. This, along with the addition of Klint Kubiak as offensive coordinator, could help Walker blossom into a star. He has consistently posted strong advanced metrics in key areas and has top-5 upside. It's only a matter of time before he puts it all together.
Walker should be one of your top running back targets this year. Don't leave your draft without him.
Ray Davis - Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills selected Davis in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft. He didn’t see a ton of action playing behind James Cook last year, but the underlying data suggests that maybe he should have.
Among 70 backs with 50+ carries, Davis finished fifth in MTF/ATT. He also performed well in a Week 6 spot start for Cook and totaled 152 scrimmage yards on 23 touches. Davis was a tackle-breaking machine last year and looks like a very good player.
WHAT A RUN FOR RAY DAVIS 🔥
63 yards for the Buffalo lead 😮💨
(via @nfl)pic.twitter.com/xA274A6Djm
— ESPN (@espn) November 3, 2024
With Cook seemingly dug into his stance of wanting a new contract, Davis becomes a highly intriguing late-round target for fantasy managers. While Davis is a talented player, he will very likely begin the 2025 season behind Cook.
However, if Cook is injured, then Davis would become the RB1 in a highly potent offense. If Davis ever sees an extended run as a starter, his MTF/ATT data suggests he could surprise in a big way.
He’s currently very affordable in drafts, as evidenced by his current NFFC ADP of 171.41 overall. There's little risk in drafting him at this cost, so why not take a flyer on Davis?
Jordan Mason - Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota acquired Mason this offseason in a trade with the San Francisco 49ers. Mason was highly effective while filling in for an injured Christian McCaffrey in 2024. In 12 games, he ran for 789 yards and scored three touchdowns. His advanced metrics were also strong. Among 46 backs with 100+ carries, Mason finished an impressive sixth in MTF/ATT.
The Jordan Mason touchdown managers were waiting for!
He has 93 yards and a TD so far! 🔥 pic.twitter.com/lhubclHsVx
— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) September 10, 2024
The Vikings did re-sign Aaron Jones to a new contract, but have been very vocal about scaling back his workload in 2025. While it’s unlikely Mason completely takes over the starting job, he should receive plenty of touches as part of a committee with Jones. This means Mason will provide standalone value and could be a viable flex play.
Should Jones miss time due to injury, Mason would then be in line for a massive workload. We have already seen what Mason can do when given an extended run as the starter, and his MTF/ATT data suggests he is a very good player capable of creating yards on his own.
Managers should aggressively target Mason in the double-digit rounds of their fantasy drafts.
Isaac Guerendo - San Francisco 49ers
Guerendo saw time as the 49ers' RB1 while filling in for McCaffrey and Mason last year. He is a speedy back who played well in limited action. He averaged 5.0 yards per carry, ran for 420 yards, and scored four rushing touchdowns as a rookie. Among 70 backs with 50+ carries, Guerendo finished seventh in MTF/ATT.
The 49ers start off the 4th quarter with a Isaac Guerendo TD!
📺: #CHIvsSF on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/D4PKMHxzZc— NFL (@NFL) December 8, 2024
Guerendo now enters 2025 as the RB2 behind McCaffrey. Given the latter's injury history, Guerendo may see an extended run as a starter in 2025. If he does, he’ll be a hot ticket fantasy item. While Guerendo will not supplant McCaffrey anytime soon, he is talented enough to return RB1 production if McCaffrey goes down.
Fantasy managers should consider Guerendo a priority target in the closing rounds of all drafts as he carries potential league-winning upside.
Fantasy Football Running Back Busts
Aaron Jones - Minnesota Vikings
Jones eclipsed the 1,000-yard rushing mark for the fourth time in his career last year. He even set new career highs in carries (255) and rushing yards (1,138). However, his yards per carry declined for the second straight season, and he did not score well in MTF/ATT either. Among 46 backs with 100+ carries, Jones only finished 40th in MTF/ATT. Yikes.
It now makes perfect sense why Minnesota wants Mason to have a role in the run game. The Vikings did sign Jones to a two-year contract extension, but it looks like he is a declining player. The acquisition of Mason also suggests Minnesota is hedging its bet on Jones and wants to be prepared in case his play declines.
Either way, the Vikings have made it known they want to scale back Jones' workload and give Mason more of the pie. Throw in a decline in MTF/ATT, and it all makes Jones an unappealing option on draft day.
Joe Mixon - Houston Texans
Mixon's first season in Houston was certainly a success. He ran 1,016 rushing yards, scored 11 rushing touchdowns, and finished 2024 as the PPR RB17.
MIXON. 45-YARD TD.
📺: #HOUvsDAL on ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/Z3C33tMXWN— NFL (@NFL) November 19, 2024
However, he still only averaged 4.15 yards per carry, and some of the underlying data suggests he's a declining player. Among 46 backs with 100+ carries, Mixon finished 38th in MTF/ATT. Volume was on his side, though, and he still provided value for fantasy managers.
Mixon will be 29 years old at the start of the 2025 campaign, and he is approaching the danger zone for older running backs. His decline in MTF/ATT doesn't necessarily mean he will certainly be a bust. If Mixon is given the same volume he saw last year, then he will still return solid RB2 production.
However, if his efficiency metrics and missed tackles data continue to disappoint, then it will suggest he is continuing to slow down. At which point, it's possible Houston's coaching staff could experiment with other options on the roster. Dameon Pierce has struggled since his solid rookie year, but he could be given another chance. 2025 fourth-round rookie Woody Marks could also be given a shot if Mixon struggles.
On June 9, the Texans also signed veteran Nick Chubb to a one-year contract, which could further complicate the backfield.
Houston might not opt to replace Mixon if they are winning games. However, if things go sideways or the offense continues to scuffle much like it did at times in 2024, then Mixon's standing as the team's RB1 could waiver.
Either way, there is some risk drafting Mixon in 2025. He could still return solid production, but it might be best for managers to target other backs this year.
Alvin Kamara - New Orleans Saints
Kamara finished the 2024 season with a career high 950 rushing yards and finished the year as the PPR RB9.
There goes Alvin Kamara for 57 yards!
📺: #NOvsDAL on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/F0NOkTSZ7g— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2024
Despite the success, he once again did not score well in MTF/ATT. Among 46 backs with 100+ carries, Kamara finished 32nd in MTF/ATT. Kamara is now another year older, and 2025 will be his age-30 season. This has traditionally been a point at which many running backs experience a decline in their play.
While Klint Kubiak's rush offense was able to get the most out of a declining Kamara last year, it's uncertain if Kellen Moore can do the same. Yes, Moore was the offensive coordinator for Barkley's huge 2024 season, but the Eagles boasted one of the top run-blocking offensive lines in the league, and Barkley was still clearly at the top of his game.
Neither is the case for Kamara in 2025.
Kamara has been a viable fantasy option for the last few years despite declining metrics. However, Father Time always wins. At some point, Kamara's production will fall off a cliff. Throw in the Saints' horrendous quarterback situation, and it's hard to see Kamara replicating last year's success.
While he was a value in drafts last year, managers would be wise to avoid Kamara in 2025 drafts.
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