6 Third-Year Fantasy Football Breakout Candidates: Sleepers to Target in Drafts (2025)

Target these third-year fantasy football sleepers for 2025 fantasy football drafts. Dan Fornek's breakout candidates like Bryce Young, Roschon Johnson, Tyjae Spears, Cedric Tillman, and Marvin Mims Jr.

Both NFL fans and fantasy football managers have become extremely focused on instant gratification from rookie classes. And who can blame them? In recent seasons, we have seen a lot of rookies come in and immediately make an impact as skill players.

However, in the not-so-distant past, the target in fantasy drafts used to be players with third-year breakout potential. Focusing on third-year breakouts was a viable draft strategy that guided people for many years. In today’s world of instant production, these players are largely forgotten.

So, who are the third-year players who have a chance to break out in 2025? Find out below.

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Bryce Young, QB, Carolina Panthers

Bryce Young has had to navigate significant ups and downs to start his NFL career. The 2023 first overall pick had one of the worst 20-game sample sizes to start his career, completing just 59.5% of his passes for 3,176 yards and 11 touchdowns with 13 interceptions. He was promptly benched for Andy Dalton in his second season.

It didn’t seem like Young would get his job back after Dalton put together some solid starts. However, the veteran quarterback was in a car accident, which gave Young a chance to get back on the field.

Young made the most of it.

Bryce Young vs. pressure in 2024 👇

Every positive dropback vs. pressure (as measured by EPA) https://t.co/MM57DIYy9v pic.twitter.com/f1kJphxABX

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) May 29, 2025

The Alabama product started the final 10 games of his second season, completing 61.8% of his passes for 2,104 yards and 15 touchdowns with six interceptions. He also added 37 carries for 223 yards and five touchdowns during that stretch. Young looked more confident and got the ball out more decisively to end 2024 and earned a chance to enter 2025 as a starter.

Carolina’s offensive line is solid (it does have its issues in protection), and the weaponry in 2025 should be improved. Not only do pass-catchers like Jalen Coker, Xavier Legette, and Ja'Tavion Sanders return with another year of experience, but Carolina continued to invest in that group this offseason.

The addition of 2025 first-round pick Tetairoa McMillan, a wide receiver from Arizona, gives Young a big-bodied outside receiver with a large catch radius.

The end of 2024 showed us what Young can be. Expect 2025 to show us the next step in his development as he becomes a player worthy of the first overall pick.

Tyjae Spears, RB, Tennessee Titans

There was a brief hype train for Tyjae Spears before the 2024 season after the Titans let Derrick Henry leave in free agency. Unfortunately, that train quickly derailed after Tennessee replaced him with Tony Pollard.

Spears looked to carve out a solid role as a complement to Pollard but suffered a series of injuries throughout the season that limited his ability to be on the field. When the dust settled, the rookie produced just 84 carries for 312 yards and four touchdowns while adding 30 receptions (on 35 targets) for 224 yards and a receiving score.

I've missed Tyjae Spears pic.twitter.com/dOtOUqxqDG

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 16, 2024

There were some silver linings to his 2024 season despite the limited role and injuries. Spears posted a better success rate as both a rusher (46.4%) and receiver (40.0%) in 2024 than in 2025. He also has similar numbers in terms of his avoided tackle rate (17.9%) and explosive run rate (10.7%), suggesting that his explosiveness as a rookie is repeatable.

The Titans offense should be vastly improved with a new quarterback (Cam Ward) and continued upgrades along the offensive line (left tackle Dan Moore Jr. and right guard Kevin Zeitler). Pollard will continue to function in this offense, but a healthy Spears offers an explosive element that should continue to get him opportunities.

Spears will continue to have a role in 2025 and could explode if Pollard were to get injured. Expect him to continue to grow in an offense looking for explosive playmakers outside of Calvin Ridley.

UPDATE: Spears suffered a high-ankle sprain in Tennessee's first preseason game, which could affect his early-season role.

Roschon Johnson, RB, Chicago Bears

Roschon Johnson was a popular sleeper running back entering the 2023 draft class, thanks to his draft capital (fourth round) and a backfield lacking top-end talent. Through two seasons, he has struggled to stay on the field (29 of 34 games played) or to carve out a meaningful role.

However, that could change in 2025.

Johnson saw fewer opportunities in 2024 (71 touches for 254 yards) than he did as a rookie (115 touches for 561 yards). However, he did emerge as a reliable goal-line back (six touchdowns) and continued to be efficient as a receiver (16 receptions on 20 targets).

Is it officially Roschon Johnson szn? pic.twitter.com/OPD4doGdXW

— Joseph Herff (@JosephHerffNFL) April 28, 2025

Many expected the Bears to either sign or draft a talent upgrade at the running back position. However, those moves never materialized, leaving Chicago with a backfield of D'Andre Swift, Johnson, and seventh-round pick Kyle Monangai heading into 2025.

Johnson has an opportunity to finally realize his potential in 2025, especially with new head coach Ben Johnson. Johnson had one of the most explosive running backs in the NFL over the past two seasons in Jahmyr Gibbs. However, he frequently split the backfield between Gibbs and David Montgomery to maximize both players.

Since 2023, Gibbs has averaged 9.3 fewer touches (15 vs. 24.3) and 8.6 fewer opportunities (16.2 vs. 24.8) in games where Montgomery is healthy. Gibbs has shown that he can function as a bell cow when given the backfield, but Johnson’s philosophy is seemingly splitting the backfield to keep everybody fresh.

In Chicago, Swift will likely be the explosive back, whereas Johnson will have an opportunity to function in the “David Montgomery role.” Over the last two seasons, that has meant handling 14.4 carries and 2.2 targets per game. Montgomery has also handled the most inside the five carries (34) among running backs since 2023, converting 17 of them into touchdowns.

Johnson has an opportunity to finally have the role many envisioned for him when he entered the NFL. He is poised to have a big season if he can stay healthy for the Bears.

Marvin Mims Jr., WR, Denver Broncos

There was plenty of excitement for Marvin Mims Jr. entering the NFL as a second-round pick in the 2023 draft. Mims was a big-play threat during his time at Oklahoma, averaging over 20.0 yards per reception over his final two years. In total, he had 123 receptions for 2,398 yards and 20 touchdowns in his collegiate career.

Mims didn’t make a big impact on offense as a rookie (22 receptions for 377 yards and a touchdown) but was named a second-team All-Pro as a kick returner. His second season was trending the same way until he found a way to crack the Broncos' receiver rotation.

From Weeks 13 to 18, Mims averaged a 36% snap share on offense (he hadn’t surpassed that number before Week 12). He caught 23 of 26 targets for 341 yards and five touchdowns during that span. In total, he caught 39 passes for 503 yards and six touchdowns in his second season.

MARVIN MIMS JR. WITH THE GAME-TYING TOUCHDOWN OVER TWO DEFENDERS 😱

ABSOLUTELY RIDICULOUS 🔥 (via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/lkyJ0BzcwB

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) December 29, 2024

Mims led all wide receivers in yards per route run after Week 11 (3.63) and carved out a role on offense. The Broncos have plenty of big-bodied possession receivers (Courtland Sutton, Devaughn Vele, and Pat Bryant), so Mims has a guaranteed role as a field-stretcher in the offense.

Now that the Broncos have seen the dynamic he can bring to the offense, it will be hard to take him off the field. He will likely be a role player for the foreseeable future because of his kick returning prowess, but that doesn’t mean much if he is earning consistent targets on his limited routes.

Cedric Tillman, WR, Cleveland Browns

Cedric Tillman was breaking out with Cleveland in 2024 before a concussion ended his season early. The second-year receiver was limited to just 11 games, but still set career-highs in targets (49), receptions (29), receiving yards (339), and touchdowns (three).

Cedric Tillman weeks 7-11 (post-Cooper trade/pre-injury):

🔸24 rec./302 yards/3 TD
🔸 75.5 receiving grade
🔸20.1% target share
🔸23.8% first-read share

Ready to watch this guy put it all together in year 3 📈📈📈

🎥 via @Ihartitz
📊 vis @PFF pic.twitter.com/07ZNi115jS

— SleeperBrowns (@SleeperBrowns) April 2, 2025

Tillman was especially impressive during a four-game stretch from Weeks 7 to 11. During that time, he averaged 10.6 targets, 6.0 receptions, and 75.5 receiving yards per game with three touchdown receptions.

If Tillman’s concussion issues are in the past, he will fill a valuable role for Cleveland as the contested catch specialist and red-zone threat on the outside. Tillman should benefit from one-on-one matchups on the outside with teams taking away underneath and middle-of-the-field throws for Jerry Jeudy and David Njoku.

Time will tell how good Cleveland’s offense will be with a quarterback room consisting of Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, Dillon Gabriel, and Shedeur Sanders. However, Tillman should be a fixture of this offense, which will give him plenty of opportunities to finally break out in his third season.

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