College Football Underdog Picks: 5 Upset Predictions for Week 9 (2025)

October 23, 2025

Brant's best college football predictions and upset picks for Week 9 of the 2025 season. His top CFB underdogs and favorites on upset watch, including Michigan State, Baylor, Ole Miss, and more.

We have made it through yet another awesome college football Saturday. After a week that included huge upsets in which Miami and Texas Tech both suffered their first losses of the season, football fans can hardly wait for the action to continue as we barrel towards Week 9.

The slate may not look as fun on paper as last week’s did, but make no mistake, this week is full of potential landscape-altering games. A trio of ranked SEC matchups headlines the weekend’s games, but do not make the mistake of underrating other key matchups this weekend.

No G5 action in this week’s picks, but I have two SEC teams, two Big 12 teams, and a Big 10 team that you need to keep your eyes on this weekend.

#8 Ole Miss Rebels (at #13 Oklahoma)

The Rebels fell late last week in a thrilling matchup in Athens, but quarterback Trinidad Chambliss proved that he is a star and is deserving of all of the hype he is receiving. The schedule significantly tapers off after this week for Ole Miss, but in order to feel confident about making the playoffs, this is a must-win for Lane Kiffin’s squad.

Right on the money 🤑@TrinidadChambl1 ➡️ @winstonwatkins_ pic.twitter.com/eb7uubkRGF

— Ole Miss Football (@OleMissFB) October 18, 2025

Norman is no easy place to play. With just one loss, the Sooners are in the thick of the playoff hunt, but have road games at Tennessee and Alabama looming, along with home games against Missouri and LSU. Not a single opponent left on the schedule is unranked. This is even more of a must-win for Oklahoma than it is for Ole Miss.

In big-time matchups so far this season, Chambliss has outplayed John Mateer. Granted, Mateer was still very hurt in the Texas loss two weekends ago. Who’s to say he’s fully healthy going into this weekend? While Oklahoma’s defense is great, the Rebels have so much more firepower on offense. I like Kiffin to outcoach Brent Venables on the road and to position Ole Miss for their first-ever CFB berth with a win.

Kansas State Wildcats (at Kansas)

This is a fun rivalry that has not felt much like a rivalry as of late. Kansas State has not lost to Kansas since 2008, despite playing them every season. Despite that, the Wildcats are underdogs on the road as they travel to take on Jalon Daniels and the Jayhawks. 

I understand that this team started the season off poorly, but they have improved over the past few weeks with a win over UCF, a one-point loss to Baylor, and a beatdown of a strong TCU team. The Wildcats are playing a lot more like they were expected to in the preseason as of late.

Meanwhile, Kansas has been the same old Kansas. Inconsistent, exciting, underwhelming. They’ve narrowly lost games to Missouri and Cincinnati, and were blown out by Texas Tech when we last saw them. As fun as this offense can be, I find it hard to believe that Saturday will be the first time they beat K-State since 2008, when the Wildcats upped their performance as of late.

Baylor Bears (at #21 Cincinnati)

Cincinnati has been much improved this season after struggling with the initial transition to the Big 12. Quarterback Brendan Sorsby has been a great game-manager, and the Bearcats have not lost since Week 1.

Baylor, on the other hand, has suffered quite a few heartbreaks. After getting outplayed by Auburn in Week 1, they lost on a last-second field goal to Arizona State, and just could not keep up with TCU last weekend. The Bears have clawed their way to a 4-3 record and boast one of the NCAA’s most exciting offenses.

This game is sure to be a shootout in true Big 12 fashion. Baylor quarterback Sawyer Robertson leads the NCAA in passing yards and is tied for the most passing touchdowns in the nation. They have also surrendered 35.5 points per game against power conference opponents. Cincinnati is on a bit of an offensive heater itself, scoring less than 34 points in Big 12 play just once.

The Bearcats are in position to control their own destiny as of right now. Typically, when this happens in Big 12 play, a loss comes out of nowhere when least expected. Expect Baylor to be fired up after losing to rival TCU on the road, firing on all cylinders in Nippert on Saturday.

Mississippi State Bulldogs (vs #22 Texas)

Mississippi State notched a signature win early in the season when it took down Arizona State in Starkville. A few weeks after that, they took Tennessee to overtime. This Bulldogs team is not last year’s Bulldogs team. Jeff Lebby has himself a team that has a lot of grit, and these guys can hang with anybody when at home.

Unreal. Jeff Lebby has his signature win at MSU. pic.twitter.com/fzOh2IcAQx

— MyDawgsPod (Landon Tucker) (@MyDawgsPod) September 7, 2025

On the opposing sideline on Saturday, we have Texas. This team has been through a lot this season. From sky-high expectations to a tough Week 1 loss to an upset loss in Gainesville, followed by an upset win over Oklahoma, and finally last week’s grueling overtime win over Kentucky, the Longhorns have become unpredictable in just about every aspect other than the fact that we know their offense is not good.

The talent discrepancy may favor Texas heavily, but this Longhorns team is lethargic right now, while Mississippi State is energized. On their home turf with a loud crowd full of cowbells, I like the Bulldogs to officially end Texas’ playoff dreams this weekend.

Michigan State Spartans (vs #25 Michigan)

One of the Big Ten’s most underrated rivalries, the Battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy never disappoints, even if the product on the field does. Just a few seasons ago, we had a heated tunnel fight that resulted in suspensions after Michigan State was blown out.

While the Spartans have lost four straight, losing convincingly in all four, this game just means more. Aidan Chiles is a talented quarterback and has shown flashes at times, and Nick Marsh will be the best receiver on the field by far on Saturday. This offense has the pieces to pop; they just haven’t done it yet.

Chiles finds Marsh for the @MSU_Football TD!

Spartans up, 10-7.

📺: Peacock pic.twitter.com/MkFCuEkxK0

— Big Ten Football (@B1Gfootball) October 18, 2025

Michigan, on the other hand, has also really failed to look impressive at any point this season. Their best game did come last weekend in a 24-7 win over Washington, but even then, they were slow to get going offensively. This could be a classic Big Ten slugfest in which the Spartans hang enough punches to remain in the game. Don’t discredit Jonathan Smith in having his guys ready to play this weekend as they search for their first Big Ten win of the year.

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