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Zach's 4 fantasy baseball cuts and drop candidates article looks under the hood for explanations on why these slumping pitchers have underperformed in 2025. Bailey Ober, Kevin Gausman, Brandon Pfaadt, Shane Baz.
As many teams hit the halfway point in their season and the All-Star break is just a few weeks away, we've got a large enough sample size to start to make some declarations of who has been the "booms" or "busts" of the 2025 fantasy season. As with every season, some exciting new players have stepped onto the big stage and had big seasons, but on the flip side, other players have underperformed relative to expectations, leaving managers wanting more.
While some trends are linear and easy to identify, inconsistent production is more challenging to evaluate. Some players who started hot have cooled off, but were they just "hot starters" who have come back to earth, or is it just a cold stretch and they'll return to top form later in the season? The factors to consider and the ultimate answer are different for every situation.
Let's take a deep dive and look at a few arms who have slumped lately and see if we should expect them to turn around or move on to other options from the waiver wire or via trade.
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Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins
Ober had a very strong 2024 season, going 12-9 with a 3.98 ERA, 3.82 FIP, a 1.00 WHIP, and a career-high 9.6 K/9. He made 31 starts for the Twins and came into 2025 as a fringe top-20 starting pitcher in fantasy leagues. Even if you didn't fully buy into his breakout, he was at least a third starter in standard formats and was projected to have another strong year as a key piece of Minnesota's rotation.
In spring training, though, there were some concerning signs for the 29-year-old righty as his velocity dropped from his average of 91.7 miles per hour in 2024 to well under 90 with a few exceptions. He actually ended up posting fine numbers in spring training, but when the regular season started, he was smashed for eight runs in 2 2/3 innings by the Cardinals.
He did have a few strong starts in April and May, posting a 2.43 ERA and 3.24 FIP in his next 11 outings after that disastrous opener. There was still reason for concern, though, since his velocity and strikeout rates were down significantly. Even in those 11 starts, he only had a 7.1 K/9 and his K% was 18.8% compared to his 26.9% K% in 2024.
In June, the wheels fell off for Ober, and he went 0-4 in his first four starts of the month with an 8.51 ERA, 7.96 FIP, and 10 home runs allowed in just 24 1/3 innings. His struggles continued in his most recent start at home against the Mariners on June 23, when he gave up seven runs in seven innings.
Bailey Ober's velocity has been better in his last two starts but it dipped again last night.
Combine that with execution and he's trying to thread such a skinny needle.
He now has an 8.51 ERA (7.97 FIP) in 4 starts (24.1 IP) this month.
The Twins are trying to coax him… pic.twitter.com/lhMwXcNx7y
— Ted (@tlschwerz) June 24, 2025
While the Twins are sticking with Ober while he figures things out, there are probably better options available on your league's waiver wire in most cases. He said that he has been dealing with "some left hip stuff" since spring training, and his decreased velocity and strikeouts mean that even when he's effective, his ceiling isn't as high as expected coming into the season.
The metrics overall indicate that Ober has gotten a little unlucky in some ways over the last month, so he's likely to bounce back a little bit and be an end-of-the-rotation option in mixed leagues. If your league is deeper or other options have been scooped off the waiver wire, you can choose to ride it out with him.
It should get a little better for Ober, but unless he gets his velocity back from last season, he seems unlikely to fully realize the potential most managers drafted him for.
Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays
Gausman has a much longer track record of success in the majors than Ober, but the 34-year-old righty has had a very inconsistent 2025. He flashed his ace form in a few early starts but has had an awful June coming into his start on Thursday against the Guardians.
Coming into that outing, Gausman has had his worst month as a Blue Jay, giving up 17 runs in 20 innings for a 7.65 ERA and 5.47 FIP. He has still produced over a strikeout per inning, but he has also issued multiple walks in each outing.
The control issues seem to be the key to understanding the problem. In his first four starts in June, Gausman issued 12 walks in 20 innings. In his previous four starts, he did not issue a single walk and had a 3.46 ERA, 3.23 FIP, and an 8.3 K/9. He still has shown great stuff at times, but has had a few innings in his last four starts where he couldn't find the plate.
Ultimately, I still buy into Gausman's stuff enough to hold onto him through this rough patch. He has been able to get strikeouts, but needs to refine his control.
Kevin Gausman, Evil 88mph Splitter...and Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/fywbCN9z9H
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 3, 2025
To me, the last few starts are just an ugly stretch that the veteran will be able to work through. He has enough of a track record that he should be able to shake off this ugly June. Although not quite as bad as this year, he had a rough June last year as well, but finished the season strong.
Since he isn't quite as dominant as he was in his prime, Gausman's margin for error is slimmer than it has been in the past. If he's handing out free passes, he can get lit up. However, I'm still confident he'll get back in a groove to finish the year, so at this point I'm holding onto him.
Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks brought Pfaadt up to the majors in the middle of their 2023 run to the World Series. He was a top prospect at that point, but went 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA and 5.18 FIP in 96 innings. He looked to be setting in at the major league level last season, going 11-10 in 32 starts with a 4.71 ERA and 3.61 FIP.
Since his advanced metrics supported his improvement, he was expected to continue trending upward in 2025.
Arizona believed that would be the case as well, signing him to a five-year, $45 million contract extension just before his first start of the season. Unfortunately for both Pfaadt and the team, though, he has struggled this season with a 5.49 ERA and 5.13 FIP. His strikeout rate has dropped sharply from 24.3% K% last year to 18.3% K% this year.
The results for the first month of the season were pretty decent, as he went 5-1 with a 2.78 ERA in his first six starts of the year, but his FIP and batted-ball metrics showed he wasn't pitching quite as well as it seemed. Over his last five starts, regression to those advanced stats has hit him hard. In those five games, he is 1-2 with 22 runs allowed in just 18 innings with an 11.00 ERA and 5.85 FIP, backed up by a 47.1% hard-hit rate against him.
His opponents' hard-hit rate and barrel rate have been consistently high all year, but his "ball-in-play" luck has flipped from positive to negative in a hurry.
Based on the advanced numbers, Pfaadt is likely not to be as good as he was early in the year for the rest of the season, but he's also probably not going to be as bad as he has been over the last month. He still has strikeout upside, but he has given up too much loud contact to find the dominant breakthrough this season that some were hoping for.
Dbacks have the worst 2 ERA qualifiers this season. Truly unbelievable
Zac Gallen free agent year
Brandon Pfaadt 'breakout year'Instead it's been 2 of the most disappointing seasons in all of baseball pic.twitter.com/EIWyqGYrzv
— Dalton Feely (@dfeely14) June 23, 2025
With the Diamondbacks dealing with so many pitching injuries, Pfaadt is locked into a rotation spot and will be a key contributor for the team if they can hang in the Wild Card race. He has shown the ability to step up in big games, but his recent results are cause for concern.
Whether you should hold on to Pfaadt or cut him loose depends on the depth and size of your league. He's squarely on the roster bubble, and he can be held if you are in deeper leagues or cut in shallower leagues if something better is available.
He should have some improvement in his next few outings just because his last few have been such outliers, but I don't know that he'll get to the point where he is much more than a replacement-level option the rest of the way.
Shane Baz, Tampa Bay Rays
The final one of the four slumping starting pitchers we'll look at is Shane Baz, who is also scheduled to take the mound this Thursday, along with Gausman. Baz has tons of potential and has gotten plenty of hype as the Rays' next ace in development, but he has also had some serious issues this season and frustrated his fantasy investors.
Baz is 7-3 in his 15 starts but has a 4.79 ERA and 4.83 FIP, with 77 strikeouts in 82 2/3 innings. While he has sparkled at times with impressive outings, he has also given up three earned runs or more in eight of his last 10 starts with a 6.08 ERA and 5.79 FIP since May 1.
His high points have been high, but they have been hard to count on. When they happen, though, he continues to flash a high ceiling with his electric stuff:
Shane Baz strikes out the side with absolute ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/KHvzfp3I8X
— Jake (@TBRaysCentral) June 9, 2025
Baz's inconsistencies have made him tough to trust, but I think he has a much higher ceiling if he turns things around than Pfaadt or even Ober. He's higher risk than Gausman, but has a similar ceiling if he can get in a groove.
Most of Baz's issues have been with home runs. He has given up 11 homers in his last 10 starts, and the movement on his slider and curve hasn't been as good as it was earlier in the season.
Ultimately, I still trust Baz's upside because of his excellent stuff, and I also trust the Rays' ability to unlock it. At this point, I still see him as a hold in standard formats for now. Of the pitchers in this post, I think he has the highest ceiling if he bounces back.
Gausman is the option I think most likely to improve over the rest of the season, but Baz is close behind him and has a great ceiling if he can cut down on his home runs allowed.
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