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Joey looks at 3 starting pitcher fantasy baseball breakouts, sleepers off to hot starts in 2025. Are Shane Smith, Adrian Houser, Quinn Priester for real?
We have seen several breakout pitchers emerge during the 2025 fantasy baseball season. Kansas City Royals starter Kris Bubic currently owns a 1.92 ERA through his first 13 starts, Houston Astros starter Hunter Brown is in the American League Cy Young running, and MacKenzie Gore is finally showing his potential in the majors.
In this article, we will look at three more potential breakout pitchers: Shane Smith, Adrian Houser, and Quinn Priester. All three pitchers have pitched well in recent weeks and are showing signs of a breakout season.
So, are Smith, Houser, and Priester for real? Should fantasy managers pick up these players in Week 12 of the fantasy baseball season? Let's dive in and find out.
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Shane Smith, Chicago White Sox
2025 Stats: 68 1/3 IP, 2.37 ERA, 3.46 FIP, 1.171 WHIP, 64 K
Rostership: 34% in Yahoo! leagues
When the Chicago White Sox selected Smith with the first overall pick in the Rule 5 Draft, they knew what type of pitcher he could be in the majors. He had plenty of success in the Brewers' minor league system, and the White Sox were confident that he could contribute to their team in 2025 and beyond. After his first 13 major league starts, it's safe to say that Chicago is happy with that selection.
Smith has a 2.37 ERA and 64 strikeouts across 68 1/3 innings pitched to begin his career. Some of his most notable performances this year include five shutout innings with seven strikeouts against the Twins on April 24, six scoreless innings with seven strikeouts against the Marlins on May 10, and six innings of one-run ball against the Astros in his last start on Tuesday.
We might not be talking about Shane Smith enough... Maybe it's because it's the White Sox?
Maybe being a Rule 5 draft pick? Regardless, he's been great and has a 2.37 ERA on the season in 68.1 IP
Today vs Astros
6IP 7H 1ER 2BB 4Kpic.twitter.com/HVwJoRCAEX— Nicho Roessler (@NichoRoessler) June 11, 2025
What Smith has been able to do on the mound this season has been impressive to watch. He has allowed three runs or fewer in all 13 starts and has only given up one run across his last 11 1/3 innings pitched. While there are some things he has to improve on, there is a lot to be encouraged by in the early going.
His fastball/changeup combination has worked wonders for him to start his MLB career, and his changeup is becoming a real weapon. Opposing hitters are batting just .123 and slugging .175 against that pitch this season. That has emerged as Smith's go-to pitch in strikeout situations, as his changeup has a 35% whiff rate.
It's also important to note how well his fastball has done against major league hitters. He has struck out 26 batters on that pitch alone while holding opposing hitters to a mere .206 batting average. Given how much success his four-seam fastball and changeup have had so far, it's easy to see why his rostership continues to climb in all formats.
Verdict: When diving deeper into the numbers, Smith has the potential to continue being a solid fantasy option in Year 1. Even though wins might be hard to come by, he should be able to maintain a relatively low ERA and WHIP throughout the season. With a 28.2% whiff rate to begin his career, fantasy managers should expect his strikeout numbers to tick up in the coming weeks.
As a result, Smith's start to the season appears to be for real. That makes him a solid add in most 12-plus team leagues in Week 12 of the fantasy baseball season.
Adrian Houser, Chicago White Sox
2025 Stats: 24 1/3 IP, 1.48 ERA, 2.71 FIP, 1.027 WHIP, 20 K
Rostership: 18% in Yahoo! leagues
Houser began his 2025 campaign in the minor leagues with the Texas Rangers before being released. Then, in mid-May, the White Sox signed him to a one-year, $1.35 million contract on May 20. The right-hander immediately started for Chicago later that evening and tossed six shutout innings with two strikeouts against the Mariners.
Houser looked solid in his season debut last month and has continued to pitch well for the White Sox. He has delivered a quality start in all four outings this season while allowing one run or fewer in three of those starts. With a 1.48 ERA and a 1.027 WHIP across those four outings, the right-hander has been among the more surprising pitchers in recent weeks.
6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
9 swing & misses
ADRIAN HOUSER IS THAT GUY.pic.twitter.com/U6MLiz1hgl
— Mike (@ChiSoxFanMike) May 26, 2025
One of the most significant changes for Houser this season has been his increased usage of the curveball. He only threw that pitch 11.7% of the time in 2022, 8.5% of the time in 2023, and 8.7% of the time in 2024. However, his curveball usage is up to 17.3% this year. Although we are only four starts into his 2025 campaign, he's had a lot of success with that pitch so far.
The curveball has emerged as his go-to off-speed pitch. Opposing hitters are batting just .077 and slugging .077 against Houser's curveball this season. Even his changeup has been a nice secondary pitch for him, with a 46.7% whiff rate. The veteran throws that pitch around 13.8% of the time, and seven of his 20 strikeouts have come on that pitch alone.
Verdict: It has been a bit shocking to see Houser have this much success in his first few starts. However, some regression is likely coming the right-hander's way. His whiff rate (20.6%), strikeout rate (21.5%), and hard-hit rate (49.3%) all rank extremely poor, and it's improbable he will break out in his age-32 season.
Therefore, Houser's strong start is not for real. He should come back down to earth over the next few weeks and shouldn't be added in most fantasy leagues right now.
Quinn Priester, Milwaukee Brewers
2025 Stats: 61 2/3 IP, 3.65 ERA, 4.22 FIP, 1.297 WHIP, 43 K
Rostership: 9% in Yahoo! leagues
The Brewers acquired Priester from the Boston Red Sox earlier in the year to help fill innings in their rotation. However, there have been some mixed results from the right-hander in his first year with the team. He has been deployed as both a starter and a bulk innings pitcher across 12 appearances this season.
In those 12 appearances, Priester has a 3.65 ERA and 43 strikeouts across 61 2/3 innings pitched. More importantly, the 24-year-old has been much better as of late. He has a 1.96 ERA and 18 strikeouts across his last four appearances dating back to May 24. The Brewers pitcher has allowed just five runs over 23 innings pitched during this span.
Quinn Priester's 2Ks in the 3rd.
5Ks thru 3 pic.twitter.com/Cri6XUcGcn
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 11, 2025
Now, there isn't one specific reason why Priester is starting to find success on the mound. However, it is a good sign that his slider continues to be an above-average pitch for him. Opposing hitters are batting .160 against that pitch this season, and the right-hander throws it about 29% of the time.
The key for Priester moving forward will be landing that third pitch. He throws his fastball and changeup a combined 74% of the time, and his cutter comes in third at around 15%. That cutter, though, has been inconsistent for him this season as opposing hitters are slugging .500 against that pitch in the early going.
The right-hander has also thrown that cutter under 10 times in three of his last four appearances. In the one outing he did utilize it more than 10 times, he had a lot of success with that pitch. That came in his last start on Tuesday against the Braves when he threw the cutter 30 times and generated six whiffs.
Verdict: If Priester can add that cutter as an effective third pitch, there's a strong chance he'll continue to trend up. Right now, though, he isn't necessarily worth an add in most fantasy leagues. His strikeout rate (16.7%), walk rate (10.1%), and expected batting average against (.258) all rank in the bottom half of the league.
So, we shouldn't buy into his recent stretch just yet. Let's see how he does against a solid Cardinals offense this weekend before hopping on the Priester train.
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