X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Five Players Set to Break Out at Second Base

Mike Kurland identifies second basemen who could break out in 2021 for fantasy baseball. These 2B could be undervalued sleepers in fantasy drafts.

When defining a breakout, I look at it as players that can take a step forward to a level they never reached before. This leaves most of the top targets at the position unavailable for this discussion.

Today, we bring you five players at the second base position that can take that next step and break out.

The average draft position data is NFBC ADP since December 1, 2020.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Nick Solak, Texas Rangers

ADP: 162

Nick Solak is entering his age-26 season and comes into 2021 with the inside track to play second base every day. In 2020, Solak showed us an improved strikeout rate of 18%. This is a 3.5 point improvement from 2019 and in line with his minor league production. He also posted seven stolen bases but just two home runs. The stolen bases were definitely welcomed by fantasy managers as it was unexpected. Although, having stolen 21 bases as recently as 2018 in Double-A, we know the skill set is there. Also, 2020 may have indicated the Rangers are willing to be a team who gives their players the green light after being tied for fourth in the league with 49 stolen bases as a team.

Solak also flashed power in the minors with double-digit home runs at three different stops. So we know the power potential is there. We have come to know that max exit velocity is an indicator of power potential and he posted a max exit velocity of 111.7 MPH. This is either tied with or better than names like Brandon Lowe, Mike Moustakas, Francisco Lindor, and Luke Voit among others. A reminder that the double-digit home run totals we saw in the minors were not a fluke. Solak did increase his launch angle and in turn, the GB% dipped (but was still high) to 48.5% and the fly balls increased 11.3 points in the process up to 25.1%. So it shows he is making progress towards putting the ball in the air more, which should lead to some more power production.

Lastly, the batting average floor feels safe given the contact profile. Solak has never hit under .266 at any stop in his career. In 2020, we saw gains in the contact rate (up 2.4 points to 82.1%) with an elite zone contact rate of 91.7%. That is up there with the best of them. This contact skill allows for there to be a solid floor of production at the very least. Ultimately, the track record and skill set are in place for Solak to take a step forward in 2021.

 

Andres Gimenez, Cleveland Indians

ADP: 196.24

Expect this to increase a ton now that he has been traded to the Indians. This not only opens up playing time, but allows him to have the opportunity to possibly lead off. He has shown off the speed in the minors and his short stint in the MLB as well. Gimenez has stolen double-digit totals in every stop since A-Ball in 2017. The hit tool followed him as well as he minimizes strikeouts and hits for a solid batting average. He also produces good OBP. The all-around profile is very safe and provides what should be a high floor.

In the small sample of 2020, he had above average O-Contact% (63.1%), Z-Contact% (86.5%) which led to an above-average overall contact% (76.9%). This was his first taste of the majors so with time it could continue to grow. Although speed is his main attribute, the power isn’t an absolute zero. He has grown into some pop of late having posted nine home runs in Triple-A and then three over the span of the shortened season. That leads me to believe 10-to-12 HR over a full season is realistic. Ultimately, with this trade and improved playing time situation and paired with possibly leading off, he could be a sneaky 4-to-5 category producer. 

 

Mauricio Dubon, San Francisco Giants

ADP: 283.65

We may have been a year early on Mauricio Dubon. The 26-year-old came into 2020 as more of a platoon bat and did not play every day. However, he worked his way into everyday at-bats by the end of the season. In the final month of the season, he hit three of his four home runs while batting .273. He stole two bases on the year as well. This gives us a chance for a little power and speed combination. He has multiple seasons in the minors with double-digit stolen base outcomes. Most recently, he stole 13 bases in 2019 when combining the three stops he made.

The power showed up as well in 2019, however, that was the year of the juiced ball so it is something to consider as to part of the reasoning. He posted 24 home runs in 2019 as a whole and although it was the juiced ball season, they all weren't from the ball so even if you regress the total down, 12-to-15 over a full season is a very realistic outcome. Pair that with the double-digit stolen base potential and solid batting average and we have ourselves a diamond in the rough (so to speak).

In 2020, he posted a strikeout rate of 20.3%. This was the highest strikeout rate since Rookie-Ball in 2013 to give you an idea of how solid the plate approach is. We also saw gains in walk rate. It nearly doubled from 2019 coming in at 8.5% in 2020. Speaking of the plate approach, the batting average has only dipped below .272 once and, again, that was his 2013 Rookie-Ball season. Something to be aware of is Dubon crushes left-handed pitching and is mediocre verse right-handed pitching. However, given a chance, he could improve against them. If he does not, he still hits them well enough (career .259 and .311 OBP so far) to get a strict platoon situation. Also, it's not like the Giants have anything to lose giving the young kid a chance to develop.

Last little tidbit, Dubon changed his stance and mechanics from 2019 to 2020.

If given the chance to work on his game, he could give us some all-around production. Dubon will likely hit at the bottom of the lineup so that will limit his runs and RBI but the stolen bases and batting should still come with the few home runs. He isn't flashy but he should be a solid contributor.

 

Ty France, Seattle Mariners

ADP: 289.53

Ty France was acquired last season by the Mariners and now enters 2021 as the favorite to be their everyday DH. France is expected to play the field as well though and could pick up eligibility even at third base. In 2020 he flashed some of his upside by hitting four home runs while batting .305. Not a large sample, but we saw the strikeout rate slightly reduce but the more notable change from 2019 to 2020 was the 2.6 point increase in the walk rate. This shows there was some growth at the plate as he entered his second season as a major leaguer after getting just 69 games in 2019. 

There is even reason for more optimism in the plate discipline front as France has never struck out over 19% of the time in the minors at any level. So we see two small samples of a strikeout rate of over 23% and there’s a chance once he gets accustomed to the MLB that he improves on that rate.

We have seen the power play up in the minors and it really began to take off in 2018 when he hit 17 home runs in Double-A. France continued the power production into the 2019 season, where he hit a combined 34 between Triple-A and the Majors. He makes a good amount of contact as a whole and we saw France increase his barrel rate from 2019 to 2020 as well. It increased by 2.8 points to 8.7%. The Sweet Spot% also increased 12.6 points to 44.2%. This shows us the quality of contact has improved.

Unfortunately, the hard hit rate (29.8%) and average exit velocity (85.7 MPH) both declined in 2020.  However, given the growth in quality of contact, an increase in line drives and pull rate, he can manufacture power with that approach. France improved his ground ball rate and got it down 4.9 points to 38.5% and the fly ball rate also fell while the line drive rate increased dramatically. It was up to 34.6% from just 22.1% the year prior. A line drive heavy approach should play well to batting average and BABIP. Although a repeat of a .390 BABIP will not happen, if these changes hold it should drop as low as you may think it will. 

There is ultimately a lot to like here between the profile and potential. This is a combination of the two and given his draft day cost, it is worth taking a shot.

 

Luis Arraez, Minnesota Twins

ADP: 346.67

When you think of Luis Arraez, you should think of David Fletcher. Among players with 100 PA last year, there were five players inside the top 10 in O-Contact%, Z-Contact%, Contact% and SwStr%. Now, all these metrics correlate and the same names SHOULD be on these lists. But the point of why it made sense to look into it was to form this idea of similar profiles and of the five names, two were Luis Arraez and David Fletcher. Both offer similar profiles but one can be drafted 130 picks later. In part, it is the consistency and multi-positional flexibility Fletcher offers, but with such similar skill sets, you are better off attack flexibility elsewhere and take the discount here.

Reasons to buy into Arraez:

  •  Should bat atop the lineup (hit top two in final two games of regular season and the two playoff games)
  • Great hit tool and plate discipline
  • On a good offense so he will get good amount of runs
  • He will hit for a high average over a large number of at-bats

You need to build for taking on this type of player but runs and batting average tend to be hard to come by late and those are the two categories of strength he should bring to your roster.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More 2021 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jalen Thompson

Heading into Last Year With Cardinals?
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Najee Harris

Suffers Eye Injury in Fireworks Mishap
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Alex Bregman

Will Return to Red Sox This Weekend
Chris Sale

Braves Won't Consider Trading Chris Sale
Clarke Schmidt

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery on Friday
Nick Nash

Unlikely to Make Falcons Active Roster
Lane Johnson

in No Rush To Retire
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Blake Corum

has "Gotten His Speed Back"
Jarquez Hunter

Picking Up Rams Offense Quickly
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Kirk Cousins

Feels Misled by Falcons
Bijan Robinson

Says Falcons Have "Outlandish Goals" for the Running Game
Luther Burden III

Bears Expect Luther Burden III to be Ready for Training Camp
Cole Kmet

an Unlikely Trade Piece
Tony Pollard

Titans Hope to Balance Rushing Attack With Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears
Byron Buxton

Sitting Thursday
Quentin Johnston

Not Assured of Starting Role
Cordarrelle Patterson

on the Roster Bubble in Pittsburgh?
Shedeur Sanders

Not Assured of Roster Spot in Cleveland?
Wan'Dale Robinson

Hoping For More Downfield Opportunities
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Homers Twice on Wednesday
Mike Trout

Homers Twice in Win Over Rangers
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Leads Yankees to Victory
Salvador Perez

Crushes Two Homers in Win
Cleveland Browns

Greg Newsome on the Trade Block?
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Zach Tom

An Extension Candidate in Green Bay
Devin Booker

Agrees to Extension with Phoenix
Trevor Williams

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery
Kyren Williams

Rams Not Willing to Pay Kyren Williams Top-Market Money?
Byron Buxton

Exits After Hit-by-Pitch, X-Rays Negative
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Playing on Wednesday
Alex Bregman

has "Really Good Chance" to Return Before All-Star Break
Christian Kirk

the No. 2 WR in Houston?
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Expected to Return on Friday
Jerome Ford

the Likely Starter for Cleveland to Begin 2025
Chig Okonkwo

"Poised" for Best Season of Career
Walter Clayton Jr.

Leads Jazz to Summer League Win
Carter Bryant

Struggles in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Drops a Double-Double in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Oklahoma City Thunder

Malevy Leons Logs Impressive Summer League Outing on Tuesday
Dalton Knecht

Collects 25 Points in Lakers Summer League Win
Los Angeles Lakers

Darius Bazley Drops 27 Points in Summer League on Tuesday
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Chet Holmgren

Agrees to Rookie Max Extension
Alex Bregman

Not Returning Wednesday
Jhoan Duran

Unavailable Due to Illness
Shane McClanahan

Tosses Clean Frame in First Rehab Appearance
Jacob Wilson

Day-to-Day After HBP
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. to be Reassessed Wednesday
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Malaki Branham

Traded to Washington
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Blake Wesley

Moves to Washington
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Kelly Olynyk

on the Move Again
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Anthony Davis

Recovering From Eye Surgery
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Cal Raleigh

Continues Historic Homer Pace Tuesday
Jacob Wilson

Exits Early On Tuesday With Left Hand Contusion
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
Luis Garcia

Fans Four in Rehab Outing
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF