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Ian McNeill ranks his top-10 PGA Tour players to watch for at the 2026 Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. He gives insights into who is primed for success.
While last week's results at PGA West produced a predictable 27-under winning score - and perhaps an even more predictable winner - the field for this week's Farmers Insurance Open brings a host of unknowns.
10 of the World's top 20 will be teeing it up in the West Coast Swing's second leg, including the 2026 debuts of Xander Schauffele and Cameron Young. Beyond the marquee names, this week also features the formal introduction of two alluring European prospects and the reintroduction of a five-time Major Champion. The venue? Torrey Pines - one of the iconic sites on the PGA Tour - and a stiff early-season test for anyone with lofty ambitions for this New Year.
But how does this elite field stack up at the top? Who, if anyone, should you be targeting on pre-week betting boards? Without further ado, here are my top-10 players to watch at this week's 2026 Farmers Insurance Open!
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No. 10 - Nicolai Højgaard
While many will be anticipating the PGA debuts of Marco Penge and Rasmus Neergaard-Peterson, my favorite DP World Tour product of the week comes in the form of a Dane two years younger than either of these acclaimed prospects.
Nicolai Højgaard enters his third PGA Tour season still searching for a breakthrough victory, but his profile is about as natural a fit for Torrey Pines as can be found in this field. It starts with his most renowned weapon: the driver. Højgaard ranked third on the PGA Tour in Driving Distance last season and arrives in La Jolla fresh off a sterling driving performance in last week's Dubai Desert Classic, where he gained 5.4 strokes to the field off the tee in a fourth-place finish -- trailing only Rory McIlroy and Niklas Nørgaard.
The driver should once again be in full flight around a layout that rewards power off the tee above all else. Still, it's Højgaard's long-iron play that elevates him from another ordinary bomber to a genuine threat. With some of the longest par threes on the schedule, seven par fours that measure over 450 yards, and four par fives over 550, Torrey Pines presents one of the most comprehensive long-iron tests all season. This is precisely the environment Højgaard thrives in, as over the last two seasons, only Xander Schauffele and Hideki Matsuyama have boasted better proximity splits from beyond 200 yards.
We’ve already seen that fit translate under tournament conditions. In his lone appearance at Torrey Pines in 2024, Højgaard finished runner-up, just one shot behind Matthieu Pavon -- validating both the statistical profile and his ability to handle a championship-caliber test.
The lone variable remains the putter, long viewed as the swing skill in his profile. While the sample is limited, early returns on West Coast poa annua are quietly encouraging. Across nine recorded rounds at Torrey Pines, Pebble Beach, and Riviera, Højgaard has gained 3.5 strokes on the greens, placing him inside the top 30 in this field on a per-round basis.
For a player still likely to be priced as an afterthought in a loaded field, Højgaard presents one of the cleanest statistical cases on the board -- and one of the clearest opportunities yet for his long-awaited PGA Tour breakout to take shape.
No. 9 - Patrick Cantlay
After being one of my stronger positions last week in Palm Springs, Patrick Cantlay has a bit more to prove for me as we head into the West Coast Swing's second leg. The Long Beach native is likely to once again feel right at home just two hours down the road in La Jolla, and particularly on the same poa annua greens he's made a living on at the likes of Pebble Beach and Riviera.
The questions come when Cantlay is faced with a layout that will require him to lean upon some historically suspect facets of his game. While I touted him last week as being one of the more positionally savvy drivers of the golf ball, his track record on longer, tighter driving tests has been notably shakier. Last year, his worst off-the-tee performance came at a similarly long/rough-heavy layout in Bay Hill (-2.8), and in his last four Torrey Pines appearances, Cantlay has netted out barely positive with the driver on a per-round basis (+0.15).
Couple these lowered baselines with a long-iron game that sits as far and away his worst approach split, and serious questions do arise in the Cantlay profile this week:
- 27th percentile in Strokes Gained per Shot from >200 yards
- 8th percentile in Greens in Regulation (40.1%)
- 21st percentile in Shots hit inside of 15 feet (3.8%)
Now, while I do have more concerns regarding his baselines compared to some of his more favored haunts (PGA West, Pebble Beach, TPC River Highlands), it must also be stated that he's displayed some positive results in spite of these red flags. Just last year, Patrick finished T5 at the Genesis Invitational's one-year move to Torrey Pines, and in 2021, Cantlay logged what was to that point his best U.S. Open finish: a tie for 15th.
The dilemma this week is simple: are we willing to ignore the red flags within Cantlay's greater profile on the back of these recent results? Or would we rather wait for a better spot down the road in a field with many more known entities? For me, that argument may well be settled by the number posted next to his name on Monday morning.
No. 8 - Chris Gotterup
It’s difficult to envision anyone but Scottie Scheffler stringing together multiple victories on the PGA Tour, but for 26-year-old Gotterup, the current trajectory suggests he may already belong on the shortlist of the game’s elite outliers. Since becoming a full-time member at the start of 2024, Gotterup has captured three victories in just 58 starts -- and he opened 2026 by excelling at a venue that didn’t necessarily align with all of his statistical strengths.
Chris Gotterup has won a Tour event each of the last three years. 😮💨
Read more: https://t.co/31pqWtc8gC pic.twitter.com/dqoBQM2grd
— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) January 19, 2026
One thing is for sure about the Oklahoma product: Gotterup has power to burn off the tee. He routinely sat in the mid-180s (and above) in ball speed at the Sony Open -- overwhelming Wai'alae's classical layout to the tune of a field-leading +4.36 strokes gained with his driver.
This week, Torrey Pines should add even more fuel to the Gotterup airshow. He ranked as the sixth-best player in this field last season when it came to gaining strokes off the tee, and his immense ball speed numbers will undoubtedly play well around La Jolla's bomb-and-gouge layout.
The question with Gotterup has never been talent, but sustainability. His profile is volatile by nature, with week-to-week splits that can swing dramatically across all facets of the game. That volatility, however, is precisely what makes him appealing in outright markets. Over the last 12 months, he’s gained at least three strokes on the greens six times, three strokes around the greens on three occasions, and has shown the ability to spike with his irons when needed.
When everything clicks, it tends to click loudly. On a course that rewards aggression and tolerates imperfection, Gotterup’s ceiling outweighs the inherent risk -- making him one of the more intriguing high-upside plays in this week’s field. He's already proven capable of overcoming a stronger field at a similarly long-iron intensive layout at last summer's Genesis Scottish Open, and if the price is right, there are very few spots where I'd be unwilling to take a shot at this ascendant American.
No. 7 - Adam Scott
Given the vast number of young up-and-comers in this week's field, it remains to be seen just how much respect Adam Scott will garner in betting markets. Despite his status as one of the Tour's elder statesmen, my numbers suggest Scott deserves consideration in outright conversations.
The 45-year-old has shown few signs of slowing down in the New Year, bookending either side of 2026 with four vintage performances. During the iconic two-week Australian Open/Australian PGA stretch, Scott finished fifth and seventh in fields featuring World No. 2 Rory McIlroy, LIV stars Joaquin Niemann, David Puig, and Cameron Smith, and PGA Tour/DP World Tour regulars making the trip down under, including Si Woo Kim, Min Woo Lee, Ryan Fox, Marco Penge, and Rasmus Neergaard-Peterson.
To kick off 2026, Scott gained over five strokes ball-striking at the Sony Open (eighth in the field) before logging rounds of 65-69-68-68 for a 24th-place finish at the American Express. Once again, his ball-striking led the charge, ranking sixth in driving over two rounds at the Stadium Course (+2.06) and gaining another 1.29 strokes on approach.
Neither Wai'alae nor PGA West would be considered courses that are particularly suited to Scott's game, however, as both place far too much emphasis on control off of the tee and shorter irons into greens. Torrey Pines, on the other hand, will be tailor-made for Adam's suitabilities, as he routinely ranks as one of the Tour's premier driver/long-iron specialists.
The numbers back it up: over his last 12 rounds in La Jolla -- spanning last year’s Genesis Invitational and two career starts at the Farmers Insurance Open (2019 & 2021) -- Scott has gained an average of 4.5 strokes per tournament with his driving and iron play. Scott also rates out as the sixth-best putter in this field when isolating for the West Coast poa annua greens of Riviera, Pebble Beach, and Torrey Pines -- racking up six top 10 finishes between the three since 2019.
No. 6 - Harris English
Torrey Pines may be best known as a stage for the game’s elite ball-speed merchants, but its recent champions list -- including Harris English, Matthieu Pavon, and Patrick Reed over the last five years -- proves there’s another path to lifting its iconic trophy.
English, now 36, may lag behind the game’s best in many ball-striking metrics, but his track record over the last 12 months at some of golf’s most demanding layouts underscores the value of an airtight short game and steely resolve. Despite ranking 80th on Tour from tee-to-green, 119th on approach, and outside the top 70 in both driving distance and accuracy, English posted two runner-up finishes in Majors, six additional top-15s in elite fields, and captured his first win in over three years at the Farmers Insurance Open.
Much of this success came on the back of a white-hot putter, as English gained an average of 4.32 strokes on the greens across those nine standout weeks. But it’s his iron play that truly allows him to separate the spike weeks from his baselines. In particular, Harris has a knack for popping up in the game’s toughest approach tests. His four best approach weeks of the season came at Quail Hollow (+7.8), Royal Portrush (+5.9), Augusta National (+5.1), and Torrey Pines (+3.7), showcasing a player whose iron play doesn’t just survive on longer layouts, it thrives in the added pressure.
No. 5 - Brooks Koepka
Far and away the most interesting storyline in this week's field comes in the return of Brooks Koepka. Unseen by PGA Tour audiences since leaving for LIV Golf in the summer of 2022, a now 35-year-old Koepka will become the first ever player to leap back from the Saudi-backed league.
Two questions naturally follow: Is Brooks still capable of reclaiming his place atop the golfing world? And how motivated will he be to excel on the PGA Tour, given that he still holds three guaranteed years of Major exemptions?
The first question might well have been answered last fall, as Koepka logged finishes of fourth and 15th at two of Europe's most iconic events: The Open de France at the iconic Le Golf National, and the Alfred Dunhill Championship played at a rotation of Scotland's most historic links (St. Andrews, Carnoustie, and Kingsbarns). Of course, just over two years ago, Koepka also became one of just two LIV players since the league's inception to capture a Major Championship (2023 PGA), and leaves his former league with the second-most wins in its history (5).
I want to thank my family and my team for their continued support throughout every step of my professional career. When I was a child, I always dreamed about competing on the @PGATOUR, and I am just as excited today to announce that I am returning to the PGA TOUR. Being closer to… pic.twitter.com/SEIehuZN7O
— Brooks Koepka (@BKoepka) January 12, 2026
As for the second question, Koepka will have plenty of incentive to play well if he wishes to be entered into the rotation of PGA Tour Signature Events. Though he does regain full status to participate in any full field event (including the PLAYERS Championship in March), many of the Tour's most iconic events are currently off-limits to him should he remain outside of the Aon Next 10 standings (reserved specifically for players who finished last season outside of the Tour's top 50).
If Koepka wishes to mount a charge towards exemptions into upcoming events like Riviera, Pebble Beach, Bay Hill, or Harbour Town, the next two weeks will be profoundly important. While he hasn't enjoyed a great deal of success here at the Farmers Insurance Open through the years, Koepka's track record in Major Championships -- including his T4 finish at the 2021 U.S. Open-- suggests his game can easily be adapted to the 7,600 yards in front of him at Torrey Pines. And in a week's time, he'll presumably tee it up at a venue that has given him far and away his greatest sustained success on the PGA Tour: TPC Scottsdale.
A truly motivated Brooks is something we've not often been treated to outside of the four Major Championships. I'm inclined to believe he hasn't returned to the PGA Tour with ambitions of simply being a rank-and-file member. If Koepka's A-game is present in his maiden start, there won't be a name in this field that carries more weight on a Sunday leaderboard.
No. 4 - Cameron Young
In a year where many expect Young to take a step into a new stratosphere, his debut appearance comes at a venue that will ask many of the same questions he'll face in the season's most momentous events.
There's no doubt that Young carries the requisite firepower to succeed around a 7,600-yard venue like Torrey Pines. Long regarded as one of the PGA Tour's premier bombers, his driver became steadily more reliable as 2025 progressed, rating above the field average in driving accuracy in eight of his final twelve starts.
His driver wasn't the only thing that got straightened out as the season went on, as Cam gained an average of 2.64 strokes on approach across his final six starts and rates out as the field's best putter over his last 50 rounds.
Should these wholesale improvements prove sustainable, the Wake Forest Product will undoubtedly be favored to add to his trophy cabinet in 2026. Torrey Pines presents a particularly intriguing test not only for this week, but in his aspirations for bigger titles going forward -- as a victory around this two-time U.S Open site will leave no doubt in Cam's mind that he's capable of conquering a layout worthy of a Major Championship.
Cam has already proven he can handle the challenge: in his last Farmers Insurance Open start (as a rookie in 2022), Young finished third in ball-striking for the week behind Will Zalatoris and Dustin Johnson. A faulty putter ultimately cost him a chance at contending that week, but he's since proven himself on a different set of SoCal poa annua greens: gaining 5.9 strokes at the 2022 Genesis Invitational at Riviera.
As he showed from the FedEx Cup playoffs to the Ryder Cup last fall, when Cam's game is in full flight, there's no doubt he has the ability and the poise to mix it up with the game's elite. Time will tell just how long we'll have to wait for his inevitable signature win -- but on a course like Torrey Pines, the pieces are in place for him to make an emphatic early-season statement.
No. 3 - Hideki Matsuyama
For those looking to buy stock in the Japanese No. 1, his opening act of 2026 provided a very compelling data point. While a predictably uncooperative putter settled him into a 13th-place finish by week's end, Matsuyama gained 8.4 strokes from tee-to-green over four days at Wai'alae -- the third-best mark in the field.
Notably, it was Matsuyama's two greatest strengths that carried the week. He gained 4.8 strokes on approach and 3.2 around the greens -- both top 10 in the field. Those weapons have proven even more valuable still at Torrey Pines, where he's gained an average of 3.13 strokes on approach over his last six appearances (second-best in the field) and lost strokes around the greens just once in 13 career starts, ranking fourth overall.
These elite tools have produced one of the strongest career résumés at Torrey Pines among active players. Matsuyama has logged six top-16 finishes here and is currently riding an eight-year, 11-start made-cut streak at the three different tournaments that have called La Jolla home (Farmers Insurance Open, Genesis Invitational, U.S. Open).
The other facts of his game may not offer the same upside as the two players above him, but as we've seen time and time again at Major Championship venues, sometimes simply hanging around the top of the leaderboard can net a golden opportunity as players around you wilt in a sea of five-inch rough and 480-yard par fours.
I don't envision Torrey Pines throwing anything at Matsuyama that he's not already readily prepared for. And if this week does become a test of survival for some of the field's marquee names, he's proven more than capable of surging to the top of a Sunday leaderboard.
No. 2 - Ludvig Åberg
I assured his fans last week that Ludvig would eventually get his due in future rankings, and now -- at the site that saw him capture his most prestigious title to date -- Åberg will return to Torrey Pines as one of the week's premier favorites.
Unlike the shorter, more positional test he faced at PGA West, the 7,600-yard layout of Torrey Pines places Åberg's immense long-game strengths front and center. In a similar vein to all-world talents like Rory McIlroy or Dustin Johnson, Ludvig is one of the few players on the planet capable of pairing a driver that can gain 5.3 strokes at Bay Hill with an iron game that can gain 5.4 strokes at Torrey Pines.
It should come as no surprise that the best iron week of Åberg's season came on a course demanding that over 30% of second shots be played from beyond 200 yards. Over the last 18 months, the Swede has led this field in Approach Proximity with a long-iron in hand -- and notably, the three best approach weeks of his entire career have come either here at Torrey Pines (2024 Farmers; 2025 Genesis), or at the similarly long-iron intensive TPC Sawgrass (2024 PLAYERS).
There are virtually no question marks in Åberg’s profile in La Jolla. Even in his lone finish outside the top 10 at this event last year, he held a share of the lead after an opening-round 63 on the North Course before a mysterious illness sent him tumbling to a T42. He’d go on to avenge that missed opportunity with a Signature Event victory just three weeks later.
Frighteningly, Åberg did withdraw from last week’s American Express after opening rounds of 68–67 due to illness, reviving ominous comparisons to his South Course struggles this time last year. Hopefully, this situation gains clarity as he arrives on-site early in the week, but without any indication that he'll be limited physically, Åberg's long-term pedigree still earns him a spot at the very top of our weekly projections.
No. 1 - Xander Schauffele
Given Torrey Pines’ status as one of the most publicly accessible stops on the PGA Tour, it’s no surprise that La Jolla native Schauffele has developed a game tailor-made for his hometown track. We haven’t seen Schauffele since his victory at October’s Baycurrent Classic in Japan, where he captured his second career win in his mother’s homeland. Now, he returns home chasing his first victory in San Diego.
🚨–– Xander Schauffele has COMMITTED to the Farmers Insurance Open. ✅
After missing this event last year due to injury, the hometown kid will return to Torrey Pines in a couple of weeks.
With no announcement of him playing AMEX next week, this could be his first event of 2026. pic.twitter.com/rItqufEvsF
— Xander Schauffele Legion (@XanderLegion) January 13, 2026
While Schauffele has yet to close the deal at Torrey Pines, his course history here is as impressive as anyone in this field. He's recorded finishes of 2nd, 9th, 13th, and 34th over his last four appearances at the Farmers, along with a T7 in 2021's U.S. Open. Over his last 20 rounds on the South Course, his 46.83 strokes-gained is 40% more than the second-highest mark -- owned by Matsuyama (33.54).
From Torrey Pines to Quail Hollow to Royal Troon, Schauffele’s comfort on long, demanding venues aligns perfectly with the cornerstones of his game. He remains one of the Tour’s premier drivers, ranking 13th in carry distance last season despite rib issues that sidelined him for the first three months of the year. At Torrey Pines specifically, he has never lost strokes off the tee in 10 career starts: averaging +3.27 strokes gained per tournament, including a +4.78 mark at the 2021 U.S. Open.
Xander also profiles as the game's best long-iron player: sitting at or above the 96th percentile in each of my key approach metrics when isolating for shots >200 yards:
- 99th Percentile Strokes Gained per Shot (+0.085)
- 99th Percentile Proximity to the Hole (38.0 feet)
- 96th Percentile Greens in Regulation (54.2%)
- 98th Percentile Good Shot Percentage (9.0% of shots hit inside of 15 feet).
And when it comes to the short game, Schauffele doesn't carry the typical bugaboos we see from many others within the game's elite ball-striking ranks. He hasn't lost strokes around the greens in any of his last five starts on the South Course, and on the poa annua greens of Torrey Pines, Riviera, and Pebble Beach, he ranks in the top 15 in putting over 58 career rounds, while also sitting second in 3-putt avoidance.
Oddsmakers won’t be caught sleeping on the hometown favorite, but when it comes to a combined floor and ceiling projection, no player in this field can compare with the World No. 4. With a win in his last start and just one finish outside the top 30 over the final eight months of his 2025 season, it’s difficult to envision a scenario where Schauffele isn’t firmly in the mix -- and at the very least, pushing for his fourth top-ten finish here in five years.
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