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Mike Marteny takes a look at each top seed's worst nightmare in the 2025 NCAA Tournament. You can't just pick all 1 seeds. Which ones are likely to lose before San Antonio?
The field of 68 is finally out and we are on the brink of the four greatest days in any sport in any country on any continent. The NCAA Tournament is an entirely different animal, and the first four days of this behemoth are the most fun days you'll have watching sports, even if it's by yourself!
Do you want to be a chalk donkey? You would not believe the number of brackets that I have seen so far that have all four 1-seeds in the Final Four. Stop doing that! It has only happened twice in the last 25 years. The odds are not on your side. The inverse is also true. You don't want zero top seeds in your Final Four. That has also only happened twice in 25 years. You want a happy medium. The average 1-seed to make the Final Four over the last 25 years is 2.3. You want two top seeds, but which two?
In this article, I will be providing you with teams in each region who are serious threats to the top seed in that bracket. Be wary of the teams who run into one of these teams early. Losing one of your top seeds before the first weekend is over results in bracket-shredding. You don't want to be that guy, either. Be sure to also check out the rest of our NCAA Tournament articles and analysis including previews, predictions, sleepers, busts, and guides on how to fill out your brackets. Good luck, RotoBallers!
West Region's Biggest Threats To Florida
The Gators are on a high after running through the SEC Tournament to claim a top seed. According to the committee, Florida is the fourth overall seed and, therefore, the "weakest" 1-seed. That's a relative term.
Florida's draw really isn't that bad. There are a couple of teams in the area who would be bad matchups for the Gators, but they have their own bad matchups before they would meet Florida. I will put these in order of likelihood of toppling the Gators if they can make it that far.
Maryland
They are mirror images of each other. Florida has better guards, but Maryland's frontcourt of Julian Reese and Derik Queen is a matchup nightmare. Queen has moves that a 6-foot-10 guy simply should not have.
West Region
Colorado State favored vs Memphis for good reason.
Mizzou/Drake polar opposites...
Texas Tech should handle UNCW.Maryland/Florida potential Sweet 16 would seem to be one of the best earlier round matchups possible. pic.twitter.com/Dgw5bWEClU
— Ryan Hammer? (@ryanhammer09) March 17, 2025
That graph shows that a Maryland-Florida matchup in the Sweet Sixteen could be a great one. The Terrapins could have problems with the pace of Grand Canyon or a hot Colorado State team. If they survive the pod, they have the best chance to take out Florida with the regional site on the west coast.
Texas Tech
JT Toppin and Darrion Williams could handle the Florida bigs and the Tech guards play really good defense. A pending matchup with former Big 12 foe Missouri is tough for Tech, but if they get out of that, it's regional final time. Tech has the defense and size to give Florida trouble.
Missouri
Missouri loves to get out and run and Florida is glad to oblige. The Tigers toppled the Gators in Gainesville but lost to them in Nashville. Missouri has a rough road, but they have already beaten Florida once -- at home, no less -- so are considered a threat to do it again.
St. John's
Any team that plays defense like St. John's does is a threat. History is not on their side to make it far enough to face Florida, but the Red Storm is worth a mention with the season they've had.
South Region's Biggest Threats To Auburn
The bottom of this bracket is a wreck and is my pick to be decimated this year. The top half is going to be very tough for the top overall seed. Auburn has also lost three of the last five games, an unprecedented stretch for a top overall seed. Does that mean they're vulnerable? Once again, this is in order of the best chance to knock out the heavyweight.
Creighton
Creighton has Big East Defensive Player of the Year Ryan Kalkbrenner on Johni Broome. The Creighton guards are streaky, but Steven Ashworth is the wild card here. He has hit more shots from 30+ feet than anyone else I've seen this year. The Jays nearly made the Final Four last year. This is still a tough team.
Michigan
I don't like the pod for the Wolverines, and many are betting obscene amounts of money on UC San Diego winning in the first round. If Michigan can survive that onslaught, they have a decent chance against Auburn.
Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin are tough for teams who like to go to the rack. Auburn does that. I do think that Auburn will make it out of this region, but they will be scared along the way.
North Carolina
It's unlikely, but so was North Carolina State's run to the Final Four last year. There is always one play-in team that demolishes a bracket. With the way Carolina looked last night, they could be the one this year. They're from the same state and the same conference as last year's demolition experts.
East Region's Biggest Threats To Duke
Looking at the draw, I would guess that Duke was the top overall seed. Houston and Auburn got the toughest eight and nine-seeds, respectively. The health of Cooper Flagg will decide what the ceiling for Duke is. Predictably, the team has been quiet about Flagg's status.
I have Duke not making it far in the tournament for two reasons. 1. Cooper Flagg is injured, so he cant risk that draft stock too much. 2. They are kids! Experience means more than youth in any playoff/tournament setting.
— ? (@ChandonGAZA) March 19, 2025
Anyone who says they have "information" on Flagg's status is lying. It's just clickbait. The only thing that we know for certain is that it looked bad, and there is no way he plays in the first game. After that, all bets are off. He may not even play in the first weekend.
Alabama
I've expressed my doubts about Alabama a few times now, but they are still the most dangerous team in the entire bracket. They thrive on turning it into a track meet a la Loyola Marymount in 1990. Who cares if they give up 90? They're scoring 100.
The Tide, specifically Mark Sears, isn't nearly as efficient shooting the ball as last year. That makes them prone to slumps if they can't hit threes. Alabama is a threat to lose early. They're also a threat to cut down the nets in San Antonio.
They are a nightmare team to pick, but they can literally beat anyone...and did. They beat both Auburn and Houston this year but couldn't solve Florida. Why? Because Florida ran with them. Duke is a lot of things, but they don't play that fast. Their efficiency makes them look faster.
BYU
The only loss for the Cougars in the last 10 games was to Houston in the Big 12 final. The Cougars shoot well and play good defense. Duke hasn't run into a lot of teams like that in ACC play. The best comp is Clemson. Clemson was the last team Duke lost to.
Midwest Region's Biggest Threat To Houston
Oh man, this is a rough region for Houston. They were going to be my pick to win, especially with the Final Four less than 200 miles from campus. Then I saw Houston's draw. It would be a great story, but it's unlikely to happen. This region is a bear.
Tennessee
The Vols have to hope someone offs Kentucky because they couldn't solve them this year. If that happens, this regional final could be great. Tennessee is literally Houston with a slightly faster pace. These teams are very even. Both rely on veteran guards and more athletes than size upfront.
Tennessee's guards are the best defensive unit in the country, and Houston isn't far behind. This game would be won in the middle. If Houston doesn't have J'Wan Roberts at full strength, they won't get out of the region. I love Houston, but Tennessee is the worst matchup for them in the entire tournament.
Gonzaga
Concern with Houston…not sold on scoring ability, which has done them in last few years…and J’Wan Roberts injury looms large…even if he plays
Zags way underseeded…scary puttin an 8-seed in F4, but if they get by Cougs they will prob be the favorite
— The Mush Bros (@TheMushBros) March 17, 2025
This is a second-round nightmare for Houston if it comes to fruition. Gonzaga is eighth in the NET rankings. Houston is third. This is where the status of Roberts really matters. Roberts is expected to play, but if that ankle isn't 100%, Graham Ike and Ben Gregg could take over the game.
Clemson
Houston's guards will give Clemson fits, but Clemson has the size in the middle to dominate Houston. Viktor Lakhin's play over the last month has a lot to do with Clemson's success down the stretch.
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