X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

2024 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Isiah Pacheco

Isiah Pacheco - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Running Backs

Dave Ventresca evaluates Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco, and why he is a potential breakout candidate. Fantasy managers should target him in their 2024 fantasy football drafts.

If you’re a seasoned fantasy football veteran, then you know the importance of identifying breakout players. Fantasy managers have gotten better at identifying breakout players in recent years. As a result, it’s getting increasingly more difficult to find one at an affordable cost in drafts. Nevertheless, they’re still out there. Managers just need to look a little closer to find them.

Today, we are going to discuss Kansas City Chiefs’ running back Isiah Pacheco and why he is lined up for a career year in 2024. While some will say Pacheco already broke out following his PPR RB15 finish last season, there’s a case to be made that he hasn't fully broken out just yet.

Make sure you follow RotoBaller on X and check out RotoBaller.com for all your fantasy football needs. Let’s examine the Chiefs RB1 and why you should select him in your 2024 fantasy football draft.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Isiah Pacheco Background

Following a disappointing first two years for former first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City was in desperate need of an upgrade at the running back position. After selecting Pacheco in Round 7 of the 2022 NFL Draft, the team seems to have found their answer. It was originally unknown if he would even make the final roster, but it soon became clear the team had found a gem.

As a rookie in 2022, Pacheco ran for 830 rushing yards and five touchdowns. An RB37 finish didn’t exactly move the needle for fantasy owners, but Pacheco showed he had talent. The 2023 season saw Pacheco improve across the board. He set new career highs in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, receptions, and receiving yards. It all culminated with a PPR RB15 finish.

 

Advanced Metrics

One of the things that makes Pacheco such an intriguing selection in fantasy drafts is his advanced metrics. Among 49 running backs with 90+ carries, Pacheco finished:

9th in Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt (RYOE/ATT) per Next Gen Stats
9th in Explosive Rushing Yards Per Fantasy Points Data Suite
11th in Explosive Run % per Fantasy Points Data Suite
11th in Rush Yards Over Expected (RYOE) per Next Gen Stats
13th in Pro Football Focus (PFF) Rushing Grade
15th in Yards After Contact per RotoWire

Overall, these are solid marks, and we should be very bullish on Pacheco’s 2024 outlook. Performing well in these metrics means he has plenty of upside and is less likely to cede touches to other backs on the roster. Strong metrics paired with a heavy dose of volume generally mean good things for fantasy football production.

Pacheco also ranked fifth in Percentage of Team Rushes in the Red Zone per RotoWire. This is an important stat as a higher finish means you are receiving more work closer to the endzone and are therefore more likely to score touchdowns.

 

Top-Five Upside?

We have long coveted backs in an Andy Reid offense and have, at times, elevated less talented players due to their perceived role in this offense (See Clyde Edwards-Helaire). Reid has not always opted to use a “bell cow” back in all 25 seasons of his head coaching career, but let’s examine how running backs have fared in terms of fantasy production when given the necessary volume.

There have been 11 times a running back in Reid’s offense has seen 250+ touches. Here are those backs and their PPR finishes:

1999- Duce Staley RB10
2002- Duce Staley RB14
2004- Brian Westbrook RB7
2006- Brian Westbrook RB4
2007- Brian Westbrook RB1
2008- Brian Westbrook RB8
2010- LeSean McCoy RB2
2011- LeSean McCoy RB2
2012- LeSean McCoy RB17
2013- Jamaal Charles RB1
2017- Kareem Hunt RB4

There were also several instances of backs who just missed the 250-touch cutoff:

2014- Jamaal Charles (246 touches) RB7
2016- Spencer Ware (247 touches) RB17
2023- Isiah Pacheco (249 touches) RB15

Nearly 82% of the time a back has received 250+ touches in Reid's offense, they finished as an RB1. So, we’ve confirmed that historically this is a situation we should target and that Pacheco is a good bet to at least repeat his 2023 production.

Let’s break things down even further and examine what’s happened when a back has eclipsed 300+ touches in Reid’s offense:

71% of the time a back has received 300+ touches in Reid's offense, they have finished as a top-five back. Reid seems to have found his next guy in Pacheco. He had 249 touches in 14 games last year. He averaged 17.8 touches per game. If we project him to maintain that same volume over a full 17-game season, it equates to approximately 302 touches. Pacheco has proven he is a good back, and it would be exciting to see what he could achieve with that kind of volume in a high-powered offense.

Is Pacheco closer to Duce Staley than Brian Westbrook, Jamaal Charles, and LeSean McCoy in terms of raw talent? Yeah probably, but Pacheco’s advanced metrics make it clear he is a talented back even though he doesn’t get the same love from the fantasy community. There’s a decent chance that Pacheco’s 2023 RB15 finish was his floor, and we could see even better results this year.

Also working in Pacheco’s favor, Kansas City’s primary pass-catching back, Jerick McKinnon is no longer on the roster. When McKinnon missed several games last year due to injury, Pacheco filled the pass-catching role nicely. He finished the season with 44 receptions and showed he has enough pass-catching chops to get by. With McKinnon gone, there is no one else on the roster who poses a real threat for this role.

One last thing to note- it had been quite a few years since Reid utilized a back in a true RB1 manner, and some speculated that Reid was moving toward a running back by committee approach. However, the club did select Edwards-Helaire in Round 1 of the 2020 NFL Draft. Spending that kind of draft capital told us Reid still valued the position and wanted a lead back. He just chose the wrong player.

We shouldn’t worry about Kansas City splitting touches with anyone else on the current roster. This is now Pacheco’s backfield.

 

2024 Final Fantasy Football Expectations

If Pacheco receives the same volume he saw last year, then it’s more likely his FFPC RB12 price tag is closer to his floor than his actual fantasy ceiling.

No one on the roster is standing in Pacheco’s way, and he is the team’s clear RB1. It very much feels like drafting Pacheco is a health bet. Now, that’s always a risky proposition when it comes to running backs, but if you can get a good back with legitimate top-five upside at a reasonable cost, that seems like a wise investment. As long as he stays on the field, Pacheco is going to eat.

And yet, a bell cow back in an Andy Reid offense led by Patrick Mahomes only has an FFPC ADP of 37th overall? Yeah, this is a player you should want on your team. Pacheco is a real candidate for 300+ touches, and it would not be surprising if he again sets career highs across the board. He makes for a fine investment as an RB1 or RB2.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Tyler Soderstrom

Returns to A's Lineup
Tyler Warren

Sidelined on Wednesday with Toe Injury
Jaylen Waddle

Questionable for Week 3 Against Buffalo
Joe Burrow

Bengals Not Closing the Door on Joe Burrow Returning This Year
CFB

LaNorris Sellers to Play Against Missouri?
Kyle Tucker

Progress has "Plateaued"
Isaac Paredes

has "Outside Chance" to Return This Weekend
CFB

Kaidon Salter Expected To Start for Colorado on Saturday
Willson Contreras

Goes on 10-Day Injured List, Done for Season
Justin Fields

Ruled Out for Week 3 Due to Concussion
Jayden Reed

Out Indefinitely After Foot and Shoulder Surgery
Washington Commanders

Preston Smith Signs With Commanders
Trey Jemison III

Joins Knicks on Two-Way Contract
Kevin McCullar Jr.

Signs New Two-Way Deal With Knicks
Matt Ryan

Returns to Knicks on Exhibit 10 Contract
New York Knicks

Alex Len Signs Exhibit 9 Deal With Knicks
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Expected to Take on Larger Offensive Role With Hawks
Thomas Sorber

Undergoes Surgery
Dominic Canzone

Has Five-Hit, Three-Homer Game Tuesday
Cal Raleigh

Sets Single-Season Home Run Record for a Switch-Hitter
Jayden Reed

Undergoes Clavicle and Foot Surgeries, Out for Foreseeable Future
Bo Bichette

to Miss Rest of Regular Season
Zach Neto

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Hand Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Out on Tuesday, Dealing With "Significant" Ankle Sprain
Aaron Jones Sr.

Vikings Place Aaron Jones Sr. on Injured Reserve With Hamstring Injury
CFB

Diego Pavia Refutes Report of Seeking Seventh Collegiate Season
Christian Kirk

Expected to Return in Week 3
CFB

Diego Pavia Seeking Another Year of Eligibility
Tarik Skubal

on Track to Start Thursday
CFB

Kevorian Barnes Questionable Against SMU
Bo Bichette

has Short-Term Knee Injury, Could Return for Postseason
Tosan Evbuomwan

Joins Knicks
NBA

Kai Jones Links Up With EuroLeague Team
Bismack Biyombo

Returns to Spurs
Bones Hyland

Rejoins Timberwolves
Kobe Bufkin

Moves to Brooklyn
Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Progressing in Recovery
Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
Ivan Fedotov

Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Fedotov From Flyers
Garrett Crochet

Punches Out 12 in Win
Cole Ragans

to Return on Wednesday
George Kirby

Strikes Out 14 in Win
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP