2024 Fantasy Football Best Ball Strategy: Late-Round Sleepers, Targets, and Values

March 31, 2024

Mike Fanelli shares some of his favorite late-round sleeper, value, and draft targets for fantasy football best ball leagues this offseason. Fantasy players should highly consider rostering these players in best ball league formats.

Fantasy football has become a year-round game, with dynasty leagues being more popular than ever. However, best ball leagues are the fastest-growing form of fantasy football.

Several platforms have added best ball leagues over the past few years. Yet, Underdog Fantasy remains my favorite. Most of their drafts are 12 teams and 20 rounds. Let’s look at some of my favorite late-round values to draft in best ball leagues.

Players with an Underdog Fantasy ADP outside the first 13 rounds (picks 157 or later) will be considered late-round for this article.

Quarterbacks

Deshaun Watson (CLE): ADP 158.9 | QB24

Cleveland can’t be happy with the Watson trade heading into the 2024 season. The veteran has gone from one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL to arguably worse than Joe Flacco. However, fantasy players should take a chance on Watson’s potential upside. He averaged over 20.5 fantasy points per game his first four years in the league, posting a 132-36 touchdown to interception ratio in 54 games. Unfortunately, he has struggled since getting traded to the Browns.

Watson averaged 14.5 fantasy points per game last season, making him the QB26 on a points-per-game basis. However, he played through multiple injuries, including his throwing shoulder. Yet, the veteran scored 19 or more fantasy points in half of the games last year. Cleveland has improved its receiving corps this offseason, adding Jerry Jeudy from the Denver Broncos. While fantasy players shouldn’t draft Watson as their QB1, the veteran is a solid QB2 or QB3 with upside.

Will Levis (TEN): ADP 168.3 | QB25

Fantasy players couldn’t have asked for a better NFL debut from Will Levis last season. He had 238 passing yards, four touchdowns, and 26.6 fantasy points in his first start. However, the good times didn’t last very long, as the rookie had only four passing touchdowns over the other eight games he played last year, averaging 9.4 fantasy points per game in those contests. Yet, Levis flashed significant upside despite playing on an awful offense.

The rookie finished first in “Hero Throw” percentage (9%) among quarterbacks with at least 50 pass attempts in 2023 (per Fantasy Points Data). More importantly, DeAndre Hopkins was the only Titan with over 530 receiving yards last season, a clear sign that Tennessee needed to improve Levis’ supporting cast. Thankfully, the team made several additions in free agency, signing Calvin Ridley, Tony Pollard, and Lloyd Cushenberry III. Don’t be surprised if Levis has a sophomore-year breakout.

Thoughts on the new-look Titans offense? 🤔

QB Will Levis
RB Tony Pollard
RB Tyjae Spears
WR DeAndre Hopkins
WR Calvin Ridley
WR Treylon Burks
TE Chig Okonkwo pic.twitter.com/WDre0wgLyf

— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) March 27, 2024

Running Backs

Keaton Mitchell (BAL): ADP 180.9 | RB55

Everyone was excited about Mitchell’s prospects for the upcoming season until the Ravens signed Derrick Henry in free agency. However, the veteran’s arrival doesn’t mean the second-year running back will have no meaningful fantasy value. The team lost Gus Edwards in free agency, while J.K. Dobbins likely won’t return. Justice Hill had some moments last year, but his role is primarily on special teams, allowing Mitchell an easy pathway into the No. 2 running back role.

Last year, Baltimore was one of the top running teams in the NFL, ranking first in rushing attempts and yards while finishing fourth in touchdowns. Therefore, Henry and Mitchell should see enough workload for both players to have fantasy value. More importantly, the young star had the highest explosive run rate (14.9%) among running backs, with at least 35 rushing attempts in 2023 (per Fantasy Points Data). Meanwhile, Mitchell is an injury to Henry away from a massive workload.

D'Onta Foreman (CLE): ADP 223.1 | RB67

Foreman has bounced around the NFL in his career, playing for four different teams. Yet, the veteran running back always seems to find a way to be fantasy relevant. Last year, he was the RB48, averaging 9.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game despite missing half the season. According to Fantasy Points Data, Foreman had a 19% missed tackle forced per attempt rate, a higher average than Aaron Jones and Josh Jacobs.

Unfortunately, the veteran’s time with the Chicago Bears ended after the team signed D'Andre Swift in free agency. Foreman signed a one-year with the Browns as a Kareem Hunt replacement. While Jerome Ford was solid last year, the team wanted to add a bigger veteran running back to the roster. Nick Chubb likely won’t be ready to start the 2024 season after suffering a gruesome knee injury last year. Don’t be surprised if Foreman is an RB2 for fantasy players until Chubb returns.

An update on Nick Chubb after undergoing surgery.

📰» https://t.co/fB8jNUFKqq pic.twitter.com/3f0WILOll9

— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) September 30, 2023

Wide Receivers

Marvin Mims Jr. (DEN): ADP 146.2 | WR66

Some called Mims a sleeper candidate heading into the 2023 season, especially after Jerry Jeudy got hurt in training camp. Unfortunately, Denver’s offense was inconsistent last year, limiting everyone’s fantasy value. The rookie struggled to earn a consistent role on offense, pulling in 22 of his 33 targets for 377 receiving yards and one touchdown in 16 games. Mims was only the WR92, averaging 3.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game.

However, the second-year player should be a popular post-hype sleeper candidate this offseason. Part of the reason the Broncos traded away Jeudy was to give Mims a larger role on offense. Reportedly, Courtland Sutton could also get traded during the NFL Draft. Mims led the team in yards per target over expectation last season (per Fantasy Points Data). If Denver can land a first-round rookie quarterback, the young receiver could be a massive steal at his ADP.

Demarcus Robinson (LAR): ADP 211.4 | WR87

There are several late-round wide receivers I want to select with my final two or three draft picks this year. However, Robinson is my favorite. He has never been a fantasy-relevant player for an entire season, averaging 3.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game for his career. Yet, the veteran wide receiver was a difference-maker for the Rams and fantasy players to end last year.

Robinson was the WR12 from Week 13 through Week 17, averaging 13.3 fantasy points per game. He had four receiving touchdowns during that five-week run. More importantly, the veteran had a similar targets per route run rate (22%) as Puka Nacua (27%) and Cooper Kupp (26%) during those five contests (per Fantasy Points Data). Kupp has struggled with injuries the past few seasons. If he misses significant time, Robinson could become a league winner at his current draft price.

Stafford to Robinson! Rams take the lead with 4:41 to go.

📺: #LARvsBAL on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/pWMED8S30C pic.twitter.com/zdN7u19oVI

— NFL (@NFL) December 10, 2023

Tight Ends

Hunter Henry (NE): ADP 174.2 | TE21

New England’s offense couldn’t have been worse last season. Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe might have made up the worst quarterback unit in the league. Yet, Henry found a way to have a solid year for fantasy players. He averaged 7.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, his highest mark since joining the Patriots. More importantly, Henry was a touchdown producer, leading New England with six receiving scores.

The veteran tight end accounted for 37.5% of the team’s receiving touchdowns in 2023 despite missing the final three games with an injury. Furthermore, Henry’s six receiving touchdowns were the second most in the NFL among tight ends, finishing only behind Sam LaPorta. New England hasn’t done much to improve its receiving corps, adding K.J. Osborn. The veteran could become a go-to target for whichever rookie quarterback the Patriots draft.

Mike Gesicki (CIN): ADP 203.9 | TE28

Fantasy players once labeled Gesicki a potential star in the making at the tight end position. The veteran’s best season came in 2020 with the Miami Dolphins, where he set career highs in receiving touchdowns (six) and half-point PPR fantasy points per game (8.9). Unfortunately, his fantasy points per game average has regressed in three consecutive years. However, that won’t happen again next season.

After averaging only 2.7 targets per game in his lone year with the New England Patriots, Gesicki is finally joining a fantasy-friendly offense. The veteran tight end signed with the Bengals, meaning he will catch passes from Joe Burrow in 2024. Cincinnati might give the athletic tight end a significant target share, especially with Tyler Boyd off the roster and Tee Higgins potentially getting traded over the next few months.

Schefter: Tee Higgins requests trade from Bengals.

— Underdog NFL (@Underdog__NFL) March 11, 2024

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