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Spotting potential ADP values in fantasy football is the key to winning your league in 2024. Scott Engel provides an analysis with the latest FFPC ADP reports.
Fantasy football draft season is already underway in high-stakes leagues, such as those offered by the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC). Those who have started to draft in many FFPC formats have already set an early map of where players are being drafted in 2024.
We check in on the latest FFPC Average Draft Position (ADP) reports to identify some recent trends in terms of where players are being picked. The analysis here highlights ADPs from the FantasyPros Championship, where you can aim for a grand prize of $1,000,000.
The FFPC drafts referenced in this feature last for 20 rounds, and the starting lineups include two flex spots. An important note to keep in mind about FFPC scoring is that the leagues feature a TE premium format, as players at the position are awarded 1.5 points per reception. The analysis in this ADP rundown highlights many value targets based on current ADPs, and even though the player pick spots may differ some from formats on other platforms, seeing where the high-stakes participants are valuing players should help a lot with your draft prep. Down below, we will break down the ADP for quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends.
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Quarterbacks
C.J. Stroud (ADP: 82.0): I have Anthony Richardson ranked just ahead of Stroud, yet the ADP gap between them is a little much, with the Colts’ QB coming in at 68.7. FFPC drafters tend to be more patient at QB, and I like Stroud at his current ADP considering the good depth of his receiving corps, as well as the potential to officially ascend into the top tier at his position in 2024.
Dak Prescott (105.9): He is simply just a good value target at his current ADP. Prescott led the NFL in passing attempts in 2023, and his receiving corps looks the same while the run support group has not been quite solidified. Let’s not forget Prescott finished as fantasy QB3 last season.
Caleb Williams (143.4): Here is more proof that you can opt to wait for a possible QB1 in FFPC drafts. Williams can be an instant impact fantasy player as a rookie, as he will move right into a Bears offense that is suddenly rich with playmaking options. If you are a little hesitant to rely on a first-year QB, then draft another potential streaming alternative not too long afterward for added flexibility at your quarterback spot.
Tua Tagovailoa (114.0): He was fantasy QB20 during the second half of last season, as noted by FantasyPros. If Tagovailoa performs more steadily in 2024, though, he can well outperform his draft stock. Having Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle as his top two pass catchers is quite a luxury for a quarterback, and a nice floor to keep him from faltering.
Running Backs
Breece Hall (5.7): Hall is going off FFPC draft boards at sixth overall, two spots behind Bijan Robinson. I see both of these top 3 RBs as virtually tied for second overall at the position. Robinson will play in an offense that has more weaponry and can be more potent than the one Hall plays in, but the Jets’ RB will be a slightly more prominent part of his team’s attack. Hall posted some impressive totals in 2023 considering the sad state of New York’s QB play and might be their only consistent playmaker outside of Garrett Wilson again.
The Jets’ offense will naturally be more productive with Aaron Rodgers available, and Hall finished as the fantasy RB2 last year while catching 76 passes. He has the proven abilities to finish as the No. 1 RB in fantasy football this season as the top offensive option in an improved Jets offense, so taking him over Robinson should be considered. If you get the chance to land Hall after the Atlanta RB is picked, start singing a happy tune after hitting the “draft” button in the online draft room.
Kyren Williams (23.3): I will gladly take Williams towards the end of the second round. The role of rookie Blake Corum is being misinterpreted by some in the fantasy space. He was drafted because the Rams didn’t have a reliable backup last year, and the newcomer will make sure that Williams doesn’t get overworked to the point of significant injury risk while filling in as a change-of-pace back. Williams will still carry a heavy load, one that he has earned.
Josh Jacobs (38.7): The former Raider is coming off a disappointing season, but he is in a position to bounce back in a better offense in Green Bay. Jacobs is also an appealing pick because he has been more durable than many other RBs to this point in his career. Jacobs has not played less than 13 games in any of his first five seasons thus far.
Aaron Jones (63.8): Having gone to the “dark side” of Minnesota after a long run as a Green Bay staple, Jones can still deliver the fantasy goods when healthy. In his last five games of 2023, Jones rushed for 100-plus yards, including the playoffs. Jones still packages good vision, elusiveness, power, and breakaway ability, and he can be a value target as an RB2 in this ADP range.
D'Andre Swift (74.5): He is one of my favorite RB2 picks for where he is being drafted in all formats. Swift might be headed for the best season of his career so far, as he fills Chicago’s need for a dependable No. 1 RB. In a return to the NFC North, the ex-Lion will provide important support for Caleb Williams as both a runner and pass-catcher out of the backfield.
Raheem Mostert (81.3): While Mostert might not approach 21 combined touchdowns again, he will still be a consistent focal point of the Dolphins offense, which as we know is one of the best in the league. Yes, he is 32 years old, but the Dolphins’ goal-line area ace has only four seasons with 100-plus rushing attempts on his resume. The end has not quite arrived for Mostert, as he has avoided major injury issues over the past two seasons.
95 seconds of Tyjae Spears making dudes miss pic.twitter.com/qw26A2eyG1
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) July 15, 2024
Tyjae Spears (96.3): The second-year man is an intriguing pick at his current ADP. Spears can carve out at least a timeshare role with Tony Pollard, yet Spears also has the talent to overtake the former Cowboy if he falters again in Tennessee.
Gus Edwards (109.5): I love the discount on a guy who should be the No. 1 RB for a run-first offense. Edwards found the end zone a career-high 13 times last season and might be good for at least 8 to 10 this season while possibly producing more consistently in terms of overall yardage.
Rico Dowdle (132.1): The Dallas RB is being drafted behind NFL backups such as Jaylen Wright and Ty Chandler, and he does have a legitimate shot at outproducing Ezekiel Elliott. Dowdle should be a prime target in this range with the potential to be the No. 1 RB in a top NFC offense.
Wide Receivers
Tyreek Hill (3.5): The Miami superstar is being taken one spot behind CeeDee Lamb, yet we have to consider that his quarterback's play slipped in the second half of last season. If his quarterback play can perform at a high level over a full season in 2024, Hill might be a league-winning difference-maker for fantasy.
Drake London (19.6): The widespread assumption is that London is headed for a breakout season with the Falcons’ QB upgrade to Kirk Cousins, but he is being drafted just before the more proven Davante Adams, and ahead of RBs like Derrick Henry, Kyren Williams, and Travis Etienne overall.
London should truly emerge as at least a higher-end fantasy WR2, yet I may pivot off him for the other overall options in a close call until we see him function at a WR1 level for a full season. Your approach to him may differ, though, especially in a high-stakes FFPC format where one has to be aggressive on preferred draft targets.
Michael Pittman Jr. (37.3): A full season of Anthony Richardson is expected to boost the outlook for Pittman. But the second-year QB will also run often, and Pittman will share a lot of offensive touches with Jonathan Taylor, Josh Downs, Adonai Mitchell, and sleeper TE Jelani Woods. I won’t take him over Brandon Aiyuk, who is just behind Pittman on the WR ADP latter, and Kyle Pitts, also being drafted after the Colts’ No. 1 WR, especially in the FFPC TE premium format. Amari Cooper has an ADP of 51.3 and I would rather wait to land him than pick Pittman a bit too early at his current ADP.
Tee Higgins (53.8): This is one of my top WR2 value targets in all drafts. I expect a very productive rebound season from Higgins after injuries derailed him last year, while also playing for a payday after the Bengals denied him a new deal.
The books certainly think Stefon Diggs will have an impact on Nico Collins and Tank Dell pic.twitter.com/S7E6zaqX0V
— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) July 20, 2024
Tank Dell (60.8): Dell gets a lot of deserved love after significantly overcoming low expectations as a rookie. But the 165-pound wide receiver is more ideally suited to be a No. 3 option in a good NFL offense. You can still get big plays out of Dell this season, yet he may also prove to be maddeningly inconsistent every week.
Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs will be top targets more often for possession grabs, and the addition of Joe Mixon also means another new playmaker to share offensive touches with, as Houston should finally find more offensive balance through the running game. There's a lot of boom or bust potential with Dell each week. Let someone else take on that risk.
Calvin Ridley (65.7): Last season, I was not surprised by his unreliable production after a long layoff. Ridley will rise again in 2024, at least to mid-range fantasy WR2 status, as Will Levis guns to him often downfield and in scoring situations.
Keon Coleman (92.5): The Buffalo rookie is being viewed with some skepticism from high-stakes drafters. Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir, however, have never shown the promise to operate as featured pass-catchers for an NFL offense. Listed at 6-foot-4 and 213 pounds, Coleman has instant TD potential and can progressively emerge as a regular option for Josh Allen throughout his first pro campaign. Shoot for value at the current ADP based on opportunity in a situation with a premier QB.
Joshua Palmer (119.2): This is another good value target from a Chargers offense that is an obvious afterthought to many drafters. Palmer is the most dependable returnee in the pass-catching department for Justin Herbert, as he averaged a career-high 15.3 yards per reception in 2023.
Jahan Dotson (150.7): The fantasy community seems to be down on Dotson overall. He did not go off the board in the first 20 rounds of my Scott Fish Bowl 14 draft. The third-year man did average 14.9 yards per catch and caught seven TD passes as a rookie in 2022, though. Dotson is certainly worthy of a late flier with Jayden Daniels taking over at QB in Washington.
Tight Ends
Mark Andrews (28.3): The longtime top target for Lamar Jackson is being drafted as the fourth TE off the board, seven overall spots behind Dalton Kincaid. Despite suffering a leg injury during the second half of last season, the Baltimore TE still averaged 13.5 Fantasy Points Per Game in PPR formats, which tied for fourth at the position in 2023.
A healthy Andrews can surely remain among the best TE producers, and the outlook is additionally optimistic when you consider Jackson finished with a career-high 307 passing completions last season. The three-time Pro Bowler is a good pick at TE premium formats and his current ADP.
George Kittle (55.2): I simply cannot agree with Kittle being drafted six spots on average after Jake Ferguson. He did log six outings with less than six PPR points last season but still finished as TE6 in FFPG (12.7). Kittle was statistically erratic last year, but I will still gladly take him as the No. 9 TE overall.
Pat Freiermuth (93.7): This is an intriguing TE pick. While Russell Wilson has never regularly relied on TEs throughout much of his career, Freiermuth, however, is projected to be the No. 2 pass-catcher in the Pittsburgh offense. There may be even more fantasy promise for the Steelers TE if Justin Fields starts at some point, as the ex-Bear did not hesitate to target Cole Kmet in Chicago.
Sleeper TE: Tyler Conklin#TakeFlight pic.twitter.com/ix1y9Y8FgE
— Yards Per Fantasy (@YardsPer) September 3, 2023
Tyler Conklin (134.8): Rodgers has reportedly developed a good rapport with Conklin so far this preseason. The Jets don’t have another dependable pass-catcher outside of Garrett Wilson, as Mike Williams is a notorious injury risk. Conklin is a viable deeper TE consideration, as he may need to be a frequent option for Rodgers on key passing downs and, in the goal-line area.
Noah Fant (153.5): The Seahawks’ offense ranked last in total plays in 2023, as the defense spent too much time on the field. Fant also shared a lot of work with Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson. New head coach Mike Macdonald should help improve Seattle's outlook in his area of prime focus (defense), while the new offensive coordinator, Ryan Grubb, won’t hesitate to challenge opponents with the potent air-heavy attack.
Dissly and Parkinson are gone, and Fant can at least produce respectably for fantasy purposes, even as a fourth receiving option for Geno Smith. Take the later shot on him, as Grubb may feature the Seattle TE more than his predecessors did.
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