RADIO
Every offseason, new players join new teams. Whether it's via the NFL Draft, free agency, or a trade, the landscape shifts. At the wide receiver position, in particular, a new addition tends to mean a different, or new, target distribution. But what does that mean exactly?
High-target earners joining a team can decrease the target share of other pass-catchers currently on that team. In particular, we'll examine the receiving corps in Jacksonville, Seattle, and Chicago. Which player(s) from these three teams will see their market share of targets decrease?
These guys have all put up big seasons in the past, but in 2023, there could be some real changes coming as a result of some offseason acquisitions. Without further ado, here are four players that will see their market share of targets decrease this season.
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Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars
Christian Kirk had a career-high 133 targets in his first season with the Jaguars. His 23.2% target share was the second-highest of his career after the 2019 season he played alongside an aging Larry Fitzgerald Jr. Per PlayerProfiler, he had 22 red zone targets a season ago, which was eight more than he's had in any season prior. Interestingly, his average depth of target (aDoT) was the lowest it's been in his entire career, which likely led to the increase in targets.
Now enter Calvin Ridley, who we haven't seen play a game in the NFL since the 2021 season due to serving a full suspension in 2022 for violating the league's gambling policy. Through five games in 2021, he had a target share of 27.4% and a target rate of 27.2%. In his last full season in 2020, his 143 targets were the seventh-most amongst all wide receivers. Bottom line -- Ridley commands targets at an elite level.
Last season, Zay Jones was second on the team in target share at 22%. That was a career-high for him. The point is, Kirk was the de facto WR1 in the room. This season, it'll almost definitely be Ridley, who's shown an ability to earn targets at a high rate. It certainly doesn't appear like he's lost a step after nearly two years off.
Ridley (and his 25%+ target share) essentially replaces veteran Marvin Jones Jr., who had just a 14.7% target share a season ago. That's a 10% difference, which has to be taken from someone else's target share. Between Ridley, Zay Jones, Evan Engram, the running backs, and other pass-catchers, it's likely that Kirk sees his market share of targets decrease in 2023.
DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks
For four straight years, it's been the DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett show at wide receiver in Seattle. Both receivers have had 100+ targets in each of those seasons. In 2022, they combined for 258 targets and a 48.3% target share. Noah Fant was third on the team in target share at just 11.7%. Now enter Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who was the first wide receiver taken in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Smith-Njigba broke out as a sophomore at Ohio State, posting 95 catches for 1,606 yards and nine touchdowns on 112 targets. Pretty insane numbers in just 13 games. He's going to come in and command targets on day one. Forget about the 12 personnel (two tight ends, two wide receivers) the Seahawks mostly ran in the past, they drafted Smith-Njigba for a reason, and it's not to keep him, Metcalf, or Lockett off the field.
Yes, it's certainly possible all three Seattle receivers command 100+ targets this season. However, no team in the last two years has had three receivers get 100 or more targets. In 2020, three teams had three receivers with over 100 targets.
Pittsburgh had Diontae Johnson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Chase Claypool. Dallas had Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup. Cincinnati had Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, and A.J. Green. It didn't happen at all between 2017 and 2019. It happened once in 2016 with the Saints and Michael Thomas, Brandin Cooks, and Willie Snead IV.
The point is, it's very rare three receivers eat in the same offense. It's certainly possible Smith-Njigba immediately becomes the target leader in the bunch. Currently, Metcalf is ranked as the WR17 per FantasyPros, Lockett the WR28, and Smith-Njigba the WR40. Maybe it takes a couple of weeks for the rookie to get acclimated, but after that, it could be fireworks. If you're drafting any of these guys, make it Smith-Njigba at a rookie discount.
It wouldn't be shocking to see Metcalf's target share drop to around 22-23%, while Lockett's could fall below 20% for the first time since 2018. Draft Smith-Njigba and fade Metcalf in particular at his current ADP.
Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears
Despite playing in just 12 games a season ago, Darnell Mooney led all Bears wideouts in targets with 61. In the past two seasons, his target share has been north of 25%, and his target rate north of 27%, per PlayerProfiler. The WR2 in 2021 was Allen Robinson II, who finished with 66 targets and had a 19.2% target share. Last season, Dante Pettis and Equanimeous St. Brown were second and third on the team in targets, with 41 and 38 respectively. Essentially, Mooney has had zero competition for targets.
However his offseason, the Bears traded the number one overall pick to acquire a true number one wide receiver in D.J. Moore Jr. Moore has had a 27% target share each of the past two seasons in Carolina. He commands targets at a very high rate. That's going to lead to fewer targets for Mooney, who could thrive in a WR2 role as more of a field stretcher. Here's a look at Moore in his new threads at training camp:
It's highly likely that Moore leads this team in targets and target share. At a minimum, we're looking at a 25% target share. In each of the last two seasons, Chicago's WR1 and WR2 haven't combined for a target share higher than 44%. If Moore is at 25% (at a minimum), that means Mooney would be at 19%. That doesn't even factor in Chase Claypool, who was acquired by the Bears in the middle of last season.
It'll be surprising if Mooney captures more than 20% of the targets this season. On a team that figures to throw at one of the lower rates in the NFL, that could ultimately lead to fewer than 100 targets for Mooney in 2023. Gone are the days of him commanding 140 targets as he did in 2021.
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